For stat heads like myself, I always try to find supporting evidence for my fantasy football advice.
As they say: “The numbers don’t lie.”
Football, unlike baseball, cannot be quantified and judged on numbers alone. Projections and rankings are based on research and speculation on each player’s role and opportunity for the season.
After crunching numbers, watching games and doing your research – it all comes down to your own decisions on draft day. Even those of us who participate in more drafts that we can possibly keep track of have to go with our gut most of the time.
In this week’s Stock Market, I want to highlight several players I am higher or lower on than most that go against conventional wisdom.
Buy
QB Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions
I wrote about Matthew Stafford’s struggles as a rookie and fantasy potential for this season in my column earlier this week. Out of the backup quality fantasy options at QB this year, Stafford is one of the best bets to make a run at the top-10. According to FF Calculator, he is the 18th QB in terms of ADP. Detroit’s defense will not dramatically improve this year, and Stafford will have to pass often to keep pace in shootouts. The offense will be more dynamic with the additions of RB Jahvid Best, WR Nate Burleson, and TE Tony Scheffler. Reports out of camp indicate that Stafford is more comfortable in the offense and showing impressive strength on his throws. We will see a lot of Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson highlights this year.
RB LeSean McCoy – Philadelphia Eagles
LeSean McCoy will finish in the top-10 RBs in PPR leagues this year. Fantasy-wise, he had a solid rookie season in 2009 in relief of Brian Westbrook. McCoy has bulked up to 215 lbs. in anticipation of the full work load this season and with hopes of not tailing off in the second half of the season. He plans to hit the hole harder this year and quit dancing behind the offensive line. In early preseason action, QB Kevin Kolb is already including McCoy as one of his top options while going through his progressions. Our own Mike Clay is projecting a big season for McCoy, which includes the Eagles targeting their running backs 21% of the time in the passing game. McCoy will make the most of his 200 carries, but his real value comes in the passing attack where he could approach 60 catches. McCoy is a threat to score any time he touches the football.
WR Greg Jennings – Green Bay Packers
Fantasy owners are down on Greg Jennings after he struggled to live up to expectations in 2009. The Packers’ offensive line struggled to protect QB Aaron Rodgers (49 sacks) and finished 23rd in passing blocking (-10.1). Without as much time to throw, Rodgers was not able to properly utilize his best down field threat in Jennings. Jennings saw 25 fewer targets and scored 5 fewer touchdowns in 2009, despite improving his yards per reception from 16.2 to 16.4. The emergence of Jermichael Finley will only help Jennings see fewer double teams. The Colts have shown us that a high-powered passing offense can support two big time fantasy producers at WR (Reggie Wayne) and TE (Dallas Clark). It would not be a shock to see Jennings return to his top-5 form of 2008. Jennings is a steal if he slips to the third or fourth round of your draft, and deserves consideration in the second round.
Sell
QB Brett Favre – Minnesota Vikings
Brett Favre had a season for the ages in 2009 with career highs in several categories at age 40. It is hard to bet against No. 4, although the perfect storm that created his top-3 fantasy finish won’t be duplicated this year. Standout WR Sidney Rice is dealing with a hip issue, rookie sensation Percy Harvin is dealing with migraine problems and has not practiced, and RB Chester Taylor is now in Chicago. Favre’s ankle probably won’t be 100% all year and now is being reported by Yahoo! Sports that head coach Brad Childress is losing credibility in the locker room. The Vikings remain a Super Bowl contender with Favre in charge, but this has all the makings of a situation I will avoid on draft day.
RB Frank Gore – San Francisco 49ers
Frank Gore is the consensus 5th best running back by many fantasy owners after the big four of Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice. I am not with the consensus on Gore, and I would not select him if I drew the 5th or 6th pick in any fantasy league. Gore has only played a full season once in his five-year career and has a history of chronic knee issues dating back to his days as a Hurricane. Gore is trending in a downward direction and his 2009 statistics are skewed by his Week 2 performance against Seattle (80 and 79 yard touchdown runs). For what many consider a bruising back, Gore ranked 25th in the league with yards after contact per attempt and 22nd in broken and missed tackles with 21. San Francisco will also be starting two rookie offensive linemen this year, and Gore will see a lot of eight man fronts because QB Alex Smith does not throw beyond 10 yards often (Only 28% of passing attempts over 10 yards in 2009). Sell high on Gore or avoid him in your drafts.
WR Brandon Marshall – Miami Dolphins
Brandon Marshall will fail in his attempt for his fourth consecutive 100-catch season. Marshall joins the Dolphins’ conservative offense after battling with Josh McDaniels in Denver last season. Marshall is a great player and a matchup nightmare for opposing defensive backs, but he isn’t the explosive player he should be as a perennial league leader in targets and receptions. Marshall’s 11.1 yards per reception ranked 84th in the league in 2009, and those figures include a 75-yard touchdown catch in Week 10. The majority of Marshall’s yards come after the catch (510, 4th in the NFL), but his yards after catch per reception were sub par (5.0, 29th). He has said and done all the right things since arriving in Miami, but Marshall is a ticking time bomb that could go off at any moment. The Dolphins will certainly shift to more of a balanced attack after being run-heavy in 2009; however, Marshall will struggle to match the expected production of a second round pick with third-year QB Chad Henne.
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