Exception Report: Zach Ertz, top-tier fantasy tight end

Welcome to the Exception Report. This series is designed to examine players and their impressive fantasy football seasons, games, and/or plays. It looks for the outliers and helps understand how they are doing it and if it can continue.

At 26 years old and already four years in the NFL, it looked like Philadelphia Eagles TE Zach Ertz might have peaked. That peak wasn’t bad; Ertz has ranked sixth and ninth among PPR fantasy tight ends the last two years. However, this year is showing something more. He is currently the top-scoring PPR tight end and likely only one of three tight ends, with Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce, on pace for over 200 fantasy points. If everything continues, Ertz would become the ninth tight end and the 11th player overall with 80-plus receptions, 1,000-plus receiving yards, and 10-plus touchdowns. The list is below, courtesy of Pro Football Reference:

How did he get here?

A Stanford alum, Ertz was a high second-round pick (35th overall) in 2013 as someone who was already considered a polished receiver. Ertz has prototypical size (6-foot-5, 250 pounds) so there was hope his blocking would improve enough to become an every-down tight end. Through the first three seasons (2013 to 2015), Ertz only played in 53 percent of the snaps, largely being pulled in favor of Brent Celek. The last two years, that number is over 85 percent, even though his PFF blocking grades have been negative.

From a receiving standpoint, there have been some shifts in his usage as well. While Ertz has exceeded 100 targets the last two years and his catch rate has increased, he has seen a drop in yards per catch. That is reflected in his average depth per target. In the first two seasons, Ertz averaged over 10 yards in depth. The last two years, that number dropped to 9.2, which can help catch rate but impact yards per reception, which has happened to Ertz.

Volume has been the other issue in the past. While Ertz has always seen about 20 percent of his routes run end up in a pass target, his total routes run have increased in each of the past four years. Ertz has gone from 32nd in routes run during his rookie season to being ranked fourth overall last year. That has helped with his total targets rising as Ertz was just one of five tight ends to exceed 100 targets in 2016. That also extends to red-zone targets. Last year, Ertz had a career high 14 targets in the red zone, but that was still only tied for 11th at the position.

What has he done?

2017 has been a revelation for Ertz, reaching heights that were previously reserved this year for players named Gronkowski or Kelce. As a deep threat, Ertz leads the NFL in deep (20-plus yards) receptions with five and yardage from those catches too with 175. In 2016, Ertz had seven of those receptions for the entire season and actually accrued less yardage (159) than this year. It aligns with changes for Carson Wentz, who is throwing over 15 percent of his attempts for 20-plus yards, compared to 10.5 percent last year. This has also led to a rise in Ertz’s yards per route run, from 1.66 last year to 2.06 (fifth-highest).

Other volume stats continue to rise as well. Ertz leads the NFL in routes run and his target rate (22 percent) on those routes are in line with his career average (21 percent). His red-zone usage is the highest in has been in Ertz’s career. He already has 10 targets inside the 20-yard line and has caught eight of them — the latter number is tied for the NFL lead across all positions. The 10 targets is tied for second at the position with Gronkowski, two behind Jimmy Graham.

What can he do?

Thus far, Ertz is running a torrid pace through the first half of the season. However, there is a level of consistency in his weekly performances. Ertz has at least 80 receiving yards or a touchdown in every game this season. Ertz also has at least four targets in every game so far and has caught at least 50 percent of his targets in all areas of the field.

Looking at the remainder of the season, Ertz has a few hurdles that could get in the way of reaching the various receiving marks at tight end. The Eagles are only 20th in pass attempts but fourth in rushing attempts, surprising figures considering the potency of the passing game. While Ertz has seen a rebound in average depth of target (9.7), he still is struggling to gain yards after the reception (3.7 per catch, 45th).

Ertz is going to have to rely on continued efficiency both from Wentz and himself. While volume is there in the form of routes and targets, he isn’t a creative runner and fails to break many tackles (just two). He has a good chance to reach 80 receptions, but would need continued targets at the increased depth with volume in the deep passing game to hit 1,000 yards receiving. Add in the red-zone work, which is also new, to the list of concerns as LeGarrette Blount (sixth in red-zone rush attempts) remains a threat along with Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor (combined 11 targets).

It’s possible but the sustainability of the red zone and deep target rates seem tenuous at best. Consider me pessimistic.

Confidence level: 33%

What does this mean for fantasy?

Fantasy players who have rostered Ertz in the past are familiar with his ability to have fits of extreme success. Usually, they have happened at the end of a season — Ertz scored 56 percent of his PPR fantasy points in the last five weeks of the 2016 season. The concern is whether or not this is another fit of success or Ertz turning a corner within the offense. Wentz is on pace for 38 passing touchdowns and just over 4,000 passing yards. That means Ertz would need to account for at least 25 percent of the offense, a tall order for any NFL player, much less a tight end.

If Ertz can hit all three marks, he would surpass 240 fantasy points on the season. Looking back over the last five years, there have only been five instances of a tight end hitting the mark. Those players (Gronkowski, Jordan Reed, Delanie Walker, Graham) can be described as elite players and with the exception of Walker, prolific touchdown-scorers. They also have represented significant advantages at the position and Ertz so far has been no different. At 16.4 PPR points per game, Ertz is scoring similarly to Gronkowski (16.3) and over two points per game higher than third-place Kelce. If he keeps this up, Ertz could be a top-36 draft pick next season, perhaps even higher.