Fantasy: Finding snaps won't be easy for rookie running backs

62 draftmaster leagues have been completed or are in progress and 8 different rookie running backs have already been selected. Some seasons, this wouldn’t be a major problem, but 2011 is not one of those seasons.

Consider that the team leader in carries in 2010 for 29 of the league’s 32 teams is either still on the roster and atop the depth chart or, in only three cases, strongly expected to resign (Benson – CIN, Addai – IND, Bradshaw – NYG). The only exception, of course, is the Miami Dolphins, but even they are already being tied to the top free agent running back, DeAngelo Williams.

Considering that most teams are already set at the RB #1 slot, your next thought might be that the teams who are weak at RB #2 might be without veteran options. This is also not true. Backs such as Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, Brandon Jackson, Clinton Portis, Darren Sproles, Jerome Harrison, Jerious Norwood, Kevin Smith, and eventually Willis McGahee and Marion Barber are expected to be unrestricted free agents.

But how many teams are actually in need of a #2 back? I count 9: Falcons (Snelling a UFA), Ravens (if not Parmele), Broncos, Lions (Morris likely not the answer), Dolphins (if Williams, Brown, or Hilliard don’t fill the void), Eagles, Rams, Buccaneers (will Cadillac return?), Redskins (if Davis or Williams aren’t the answer).

That news does not bode well for rookies looking for guaranteed playing time. Enter into the equation that (a) the lockout likely means less player movement this off-season/a longer wait for rookies to learn the plays and (b) if you’re drafting right now, you don’t even know where said player will land!

Going a bit deeper on point B, this is my way of responding to the “but they could go to a team where the starter gets hurt and they end up with lots of carries!” argument. You’re absolutely correct, but the issue is that you’re completely guessing where said player wil land. Why not select a player who has similar upside, but is more of a sure bet for snaps.

Check out these players being drafted after the rookie most likely to be the #1 RB off the board, Mark Ingram (ADP: RB25): Pierre Thomas, Ryan Grant, Joseph Addai, Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch. Each of those players currently sits at #1 on their respective team’s depth chart and that’s unlikely to change.

Digging deeper we find Mikel Leshoure, Ryan Williams, Jordan Todman, Delone Carter, Daniel Thomas, Shane Vereen, and Jacquizz Rodgers being drafted.

It might seem ridiculous to argue with picks in the final 6 or so rounds of a 16 round draft, but when I’m seeing the likes of Tim Hightower, Tashard Choice, Montario Hardesty, Mike Goodson, Thomas Jones, and Ricky Williams, Malcom Floyd, Jerome Simpson, Lance Moore, Terrell Owens, Jacoby Ford, Hines Ward, Mike Sims-Walker, Kellen Winslow, and Tony Gonzalez (to name a few) still on the board after round 10, it surprises me that drafters are taking chances on tailbacks who may not see a single carry in 2011. Instead, get your talent at RB earlier on and take advantage of the depth at WR and TE later. Think about it. You can fill out your 2 RB slots (plus 1 RB flex) with studs, your 1 TE slot with one of the big-4, 1 QB slot, 1 WR slot, and be left with 2 open WR slots and the likes of Steve Smith (both), Santana Moss, Davone Bess, Mike X. Williams, Johnny Knox, Mike Thomas, Malcom Floyd, Deion Branch, and all of the veteran WRs mentioned earlier still on the board. This strategy allows you to avoid reaching on a rookie tailback.

The strategy in play: I followed this strategy in Draftmaster #46 and it worked out as expected. After grabbing Maurice Jones-Drew with the 10^th overall pick, I picked Rashard Mendenhall in round 2, filling out both of my RB slots. My next pick was Wes Welker, which gives me a solid PPR WR1. The next two rounds was where I was really able to take advantage of this strategy, nabbing Antonio Gates in round 4 and Tom Brady in round 5. I actually went away from the strategy slightly in round 6 when I couldn’t pass on Santonio Holmes, but I followed that up with Joseph Addai in round 7. This left me with only one open spot in my starting lineup. I went on to pick Johnny Knox, Lance Moore and Mike Sims-Walker, all of who would make for a serviceable WR3. At RB, I filled out the bench with Ronnie Brown, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Ricky Williams.

Could I have selected a rookie in round 13 instead of Williams? Sure, but considering everything I said before, why should I? Williams could still re-sign in Miami and be the RB1 for a year. If not, he could stay put as the #2 or go do that job elsewhere. Either way, he’s closer to touches than any rookie, with Ingram being the only possible exception.

Wait on your WR2/3 and avoid the rookie running backs later. It’s a recipe that translates to the best possible pre-draft team.

Before I let you go, here’s a current look at the RB1-2 depth for all 32 teams. Note that I included only free agents that I strongly expect to resign.