Fantasy: Dynasty Stock Market – Percy Harvin

Percy Harvin is a dynasty league buy.  He has performed admirably despite a history of migraines, inconsistent quarterback play and an emphasis on the run game.  New quarterback Donovan McNabb, new head coach Leslie Frazier and new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave have all raved about Harvin's potential in 2011.  McNabb said, “I have played with guys that play big, but are short in stature and have been so successful.  You talk about guys like DeSean Jackson and Santana Moss. There is no reason why Percy can't be a perennial Pro Bowler, as a starter at the receiver position with over 1,000 yards receiving, 90-100 catches.”

Let us look at how Percy has fared in his first two seasons in the NFL:

OVR TA Rec. % Ct Yards Yds/Rec. YAC YAC/Rec. LNG TD DP MT Fmb
2009 11.3 86 60 69.8 790 13.2 370 6.2 51 6 4 17 0
2010 11 104 71 68.3 871 12.3 452 6.4 53 5 5 11 0

A few things stand out from the above data.  One is that Percy improved in targets, receptions, total yards, yards after the catch per reception and yards after the catch.  Granted he dropped a little in yards per reception, but it was by less than a yard, and that is to be expected with more receptions.  Percy's consistency with an overall PFF rating of 11.0 in both years highlights his overall performance as a receiver.  In 2009 and 2010, he finished 12th and 4th in overall PFF rating according to our premium stats.   Percy was able to maintain his high level of play despite the fact that his quarterback, Brett Favre, regressed from a 2009 passer rating of 107.2 in 2009 to 69.9 in 2010.

Here is how Harvin fared against the top 30 fantasy wide receivers in 2010:

Rank Player FP FP/Snap FP/Opp FP/Week TA / Pass Route TA/Drop MT
24 Austin Collie 169.9 0.4 0.58 18.88 24% 18 4
1 Roddy White 313.2 0.33 0.5 19.58 27% 19 5
2 Brandon Lloyd 286 0.33 0.47 17.88 24% 37 2
22 Lance Moore 189.3 0.33 0.4 11.8 20% 46 3
8 Hakeem Nicks 249.2 0.32 0.52 19.17 26% 21 7
18 Percy Harvin 204.8 0.32 0.51 14.63 27% 21 11
27 Dez Bryant 136.1 0.32 0.41 11.34 21% 24 8
7 Andre Johnson 255.6 0.31 0.48 19.66 25% 22 1
5 Greg Jennings 273.4 0.31 0.45 17.09 20% 17 9
4 Dwayne Bowe 277.6 0.29 0.53 17.35 24% 16 6
17 Wes Welker 212.8 0.29 0.46 14.19 26% 9 7
26 Santonio Holmes 163.3 0.28 0.44 13.61 24% 18 3
21 Davone Bess 191.7 0.28 0.41 11.68 25% 20 11
15 Marques Colston 228.3 0.28 0.39 14.27 22% 14 7
29 Vincent Jackson 57.2 0.26 0.48 11.44 17% 20 0
10 Steve Johnson 248.3 0.26 0.43 15.52 24% 11 12
6 Calvin Johnson 263.2 0.26 0.4 17.55 20% 22 6
9 Mike Wallace 248.6 0.25 0.45 15.54 17% 13 7
3 Reggie Wayne 281.5 0.25 0.4 17.59 24% 19 5
19 Brandon Marshall 203.7 0.25 0.39 14.55 26% 10 9
11 Larry Fitzgerald 239.7 0.25 0.38 14.98 26% 56 4
20 DeSean Jackson 202.2 0.25 0.35 13.48 16% 8 2
12 Santana Moss 236.9 0.24 0.36 14.81 22% 18 13
16 Mike A. Williams 222.5 0.23 0.39 13.91 21% 11 11
13 Miles Austin 229.8 0.23 0.36 14.36 18% 10 5
14 Jeremy Maclin 229 0.23 0.35 14.31 16% 15 5
28 Steve Smith 118.9 0.22 0.37 12.46 22% 12 4
23 Anquan Boldin 188.7 0.19 0.34 11.79 19% 34 3
30 Sidney Rice 57 0.18 0.31 9.5 21% 19 3
25 Michael Crabtree 165.1 0.18 0.29 10.32 16% 12 7

Harvin ranked as follows:

  • 6th overall in fantasy points per snap
  • 4th overall in fantasy points per opportunity
  • 14th overall in fantasy points per week
  • Tied for 1st in targets per pass route
  • 8th in the league in targets per drop
  • Tied for 3rd in missed tackles

Harvin's fantasy points per snap, fantasy points per opportunity (rush attempts and pass routes run) and targets per pass route run metrics are off the charts when you compare him to the other wide receivers ranked above him in dynasty such as Vincent Jackson, Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald.  The stats show that when Harvin is on the field he gets a tremendous amount of production out of his opportunities.  His third overall ranking in missed tackles highlights how elusive he is once the ball is in his hands.

A look into how the Vikings used Percy in 2010 further illustrates his versatility in the Viking's offense:

Pos. Snaps Snap %
HB 22 3%
LWR 79 12%
QB 1 0%
RWR 151 23%
SLWR 218 34%
SRWR 176 27%
TE-L 2 0%

The Vikings have a good understanding of the weapon they have in Harvin and they are not afraid to use him all over the field in order to find mismatches against defenders.  Harvin was used primarily as a slot receiver (61% of his snaps), but the Vikings have already indicated he will play more on the outside this year.  Look for Harvin to be moved around even more to each side of the field in 2011 making him a headache for defensive coordinators.

Speaking of headaches, one of the largest worries for dynasty owners regarding Harvin is his history of migraines.  According to Harvin, it has been over seven months since he has experienced any migraines.  Percy now believes that after making numerous adjustments recommended by doctors his migraine fears are behind him.  You should always be aware of a player's injury history, but in Harvin's case, I would trust in the doctors and let his migraine history be an opening to try to acquire him via trade.

Percy Harvin is poised for a tremendous breakout season.  The statistics show Harvin can be incredibly explosive and given enough opportunity, a legitimate top wide receiver for your fantasy team.  The migraines are behind him so if you play in a dynasty league, especially in a PPR, go out and acquire Percy Harvin.

Follow Nishant on Twitter: @PFF_Nishant

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