Fantasy: Dynasty Slants – What Is Wrong With (Insert Player Name Here)?

“If winning isn't everything, why do they keep score?” – Vince Lombardi

The 2011 NFL season is already three weeks old and the landscape around the league is becoming clearer. If lady luck is on your side, your dynasty fantasy football teams could be off to a great start while some might be wishing for a restart. For the second consecutive week we lost another star player to season-ending injury (breakout hopeful WR Kenny Britt) and several other key players are having below par performances.

This week’s edition will focus on four running backs who have disappointed so far, and what action you should take with them for the remainder of the season. Here are the slants this week:

What Is Wrong with (Insert Player Here)?

Chris D. Johnson – Titans

Dynasty owners became less optimistic about CJ2K’s chances for a productive season when his holdout dragged throughout the preseason. Talent-wise, Chris Johnson is one of the best running backs in the league with a new $56 million deal to prove it. The Titans have been one of the surprise teams in the NFL, but it has not been because of Johnson’s production. The running lanes have not been there, as evident by his 104 yards rushing through three games, with 88 of those yards coming after contact for a paltry 1.9 yards after contact per attempt. His 13 receptions are saving his value in PPR leagues.  Matt Hasselbeck is at least getting him involved in the pass game with a target 24.7% of the time Johnson runs a pass route. Johnson’s 6.3 targets per game rank tied for fifth among running backs. Is there reason for optimism for Johnson going forward? The Titans’ run blocking cannot get much worse (rated 32^nd, -28.2), and with a slight improvement, Johnson will find more rushing lanes and increased fantasy success.

Recommendation: Buy/Hold

Frank Gore – 49ers

Are we seeing the wheels fall off Frank Gore at age 28? Gore is in the midst of his seventh NFL season with 1,430 regular season carries on his tires. In addition, he has not played a full season since 2006. Only two running backs are graded worse than Gore so far (Reggie Bush, Jacob Hester) and despite playing nearly every snap this season, he has little production to show for it. The 49ers run blocking may be to blame (graded fourth worst in the league) and 128 of Gore’s 148 yards rushing have come after contact. Rolling the dice with Gore this season is a risky proposition, let alone for the next several after he signed a new three-year extension to stay in San Francisco.

Recommendation: Sell

Rashard Mendenhall – Steelers

Dynasty owners were expecting Mendenhall to take the next step this season, and he has disappointed to date. A common theme developing among these running backs is poor run blocking. The Steelers are no exception grading out in the bottom third of the league through three games. Part of the reason for Mendenhall’s suppressed fantasy value is the limited number of snaps he has played (only 45.7%). Isaac Redman (+3.3) has seen an increase in touches (26.9% of snaps), but keeping Mendenhall fresh rather than being a true threat to his feature back status. Look for Mendenhall to turn his season around against some easier opponents, but let him prove it on the field before returning him to must-start status.

Recommendation: Buy/Hold

DeAngelo Williams – Panthers

It was supposed to be Williams, not Jonathan Stewart, who was going to be the Panthers’ featured back. Stewart has out-played Williams in nearly every category, most notably in yards after contact per attempt (Stewart 3.4, Williams 1.4). The Panthers have struggled with run blocking, but that has not prevented Stewart from having fantasy success. Williams has some job security after signing a five-year deal with $43 million in free agency, but he needs to start playing as if he is worth the Panthers’ investment. The 28-year-old Williams might not see the end of that contact, especially if Stewart (24 years old) keeps up his strong play.

Recommendation: Sell

Quick Slants

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick turns 29 years old in November and it is time to start taking him seriously as a long-term option in dynasty leagues. Fitzpatrick is one of the best stories going right now grading out as our fourth best quarterback (+13.4) and ranking fifth in fantasy points scored with 91. He finished a respectable 16^th last season, and looks to have built a stronger rapport with his no-name teammates in Buffalo. It would not be out of line to consider him as a top-10 option until further notice.

I will be one of the first to admit I was wrong about RB Darren McFadden. He is leading all running backs in fantasy points in PPR leagues (82), and in fantasy points per snap (0.63) and fantasy points per pass route and rushing attempt (0.74). McFadden’s 203 rushing yards after contact (3.4 per attempt) rank third in the NFL, trailing only Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew. Injuries will continue to be a concern given McFadden’s aggressive playing style, but he is a legitimate top-5 dynasty running back.

WR Santana Moss (+5.4) is quietly turning in a solid season for the Redskins at age 32. Moss’s 43 fantasy points rank him in the top-20 in PPR leagues. He is averaging eight targets each week and is staying on the field for the majority of the snaps (86.4%). Moss will not be someone who will help your team much in the future; he is the perfect trade target for your championship run at the expense of a mid-level rookie draft pick in most instances.

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Ask Bryan Fontaine for dynasty league advice on Twitter: @Bryan_Fontaine

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