Fantasy: Dynasty Slants – Tebow Era Begins (again)

If you were like me, you were glued to your television set Sunday evening as Tim Tebow had Denver within a Hail Mary attempt of an upset comeback win against San Diego. I am certainly not a Broncos fan, but there is something about Tebow’s game that fans can relate to and root for because he plays all-out on every play. His teammates notice the aura he has about him, and they are inspired to play at a higher level.

As a fantasy football analyst, I do not care that Tebow is not the stereotypical NFL quarterback. I care that he scores lots of fantasy points, and so far, in his career, he has been an elite fantasy option when given the opportunity.

Here are the slants this week:

Tim Tebow Revisited

If you've followed our dynasty coverage this summer, you may have read my post exploring whether Tebow could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback. As noted in the article, Tebow was the top fantasy quarterback from Weeks 15-17 and he was the top fantasy quarterback on a per snap basis for the entire season. Even if you took out his wildcat quarterback touchdowns before his first NFL start in Week 15, Tebow was still a better option on a per play basis than Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick.

Dynasty owners expected Tebow to start the season at quarterback under a new head coach, but in a surprising turn of events, it was Kyle Orton who earned the job with a strong training camp and preseason. John Fox can be loyal to a fault with veteran players, so many did not blame him for going with Orton. Fast-forward five weeks, and now Tebow is getting another shot at the starting job after Orton (+5.5, QB27) struggled with his play and was not giving the Broncos a chance to win games.

So what happened when Tebow entered the game at halftime against San Diego? More of the same from 2010. Here is how Tebow stacks up against the other top quarterbacks in terms of fantasy points per snap and fantasy points per passing and rushing attempt:

The numbers could be misleading based on playing only 25 snaps in Week 5, but the sample size can help prove that his production last season was not a fluke. Like Michael Vick, most of Tebow’s fantasy value (57.8% in 2010) comes from his rushing ability. Of Tebow’s six rushing attempts last week, two were on quarterback scrambles (16.7%).

Tebow is arguably the top waiver wire pickup so far this year in redraft leagues. He will get 11 games to show the Denver front office he can be the starting quarterback of the future. Tebow will literally have his fate in his own hands because the more the Broncos win the rest of the season, the less likely they will be picking high in the 2012 NFL Draft to select his successor.

If you are lucky enough to have Tebow on your dynasty squad, enjoy the rest of the season because it is going to be fun to watch him score fantasy points at an elite level, even if he does not fit the prototype of a NFL quarterback.

Quick Slants

Speaking of Denver, WR Demaryius Thomas will likely make his 2011 season debut in Week 7 after recovering from his Achilles injury and broken finger in training camp. Thomas was the first wide receiver selected in the 2010 NFL Draft (before WR Dez Bryant) and he was second in the NFL last year in target rate per snap (22.2%) and targets per pass route run (35.6%). We will not know how Thomas’ speed will be impacted from the Achilles injury this offseason, but he remains a good buy-low target in deeper dynasty leagues with the hope that he recaptures some of his potential.

Who is Doug Baldwin? Balwin, an undrafted free agent from Stanford, is quietly leading all Seahawks receivers in fantasy points (65, PPR) and has graded out 8th (+6.1) among all wide receivers in the league. Baldwin is not a breakout candidate yet, but has solidified the slot position (85% of snaps). He is a player to watch become more involved in the passing game if he continues to come up big for the Seahawks.

According to head coach Pat Shumur, TE Evan Moore will see more playing time going forward. Moore has only played 41 snaps through four games, but he leads all tight ends in fantasy points per snap (0.67). In fact, he has a significant lead on the next tight end Jimmy Graham (0.36). Expect Moore’s production per snap to regress, but he offers enough promise to merit TE2 status in deeper leagues.

Another sign that RB Frank Gore may be slowing down: RB Kendall Hunter is outpacing him 0.50 to 0.33 in fantasy points scored per snap. Gore has the edge over Hunter with his PFF grade (1.1 to -0.1), but there may never be a better sell high moment for Gore. He has 252 rushing yards against weaker defenses (Philadelphia and Tampa Bay) the last two weeks. Gore will only be 29 years old next May, but he already has 1,465 career carries on his tires.

Remain patient if you own WR Randall Cobb. He is struggling to find playing time (63 snaps) among the Green Bay wide receivers, but in his limited time he is leading the team in fantasy points per opportunity. He is electric with the football in his hands, and it is easy to envision him as the starter next to Greg Jennings in the near future.

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Ask Bryan Fontaine for dynasty league advice on Twitter: @Bryan_Fontaine

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