Fantasy: Dynasty Duel – Joe Flacco

Collaborative effort of Bryan Fontaine, Steve Wyremski and Nishant Shailendra.

In our newest feature article series, the PFF Fantasy staff takes opposing viewpoints on a player for dynasty league purposes.  After making our case, we conclude our thoughts so you can make the best-informed decision in your league.

Up next in our Dynasty Duel series is QB Joe Flacco of the Baltimore Ravens.

The case for Joe Flacco – Steve Wyremski

I am not here to suggest that Joe Flacco will be a top five quarterback any time soon. Instead, I am here to tell you why he is a buy in dynasty leagues and a value target as a QB#1. Last season presented challenges for Joe Flacco despite the addition of Anquan Boldin. Opposing defenses used bracket coverage on Boldin to take him out of many games throughout the year. This fact, coupled with issues on the Baltimore offensive line led to a solid, yet unspectacular season from Flacco. Without considering any “what ifs” like the addition of Torrey Smith in the 2011 NFL draft, let us first dissect Flacco’s 2010 performance and show why he is currently a low end QB#1:

This table takes all those QBs who are currently drafted and ranked ahead of Flacco by the masses based on expert rankings and ADP listings.

From the above, we see the following:

• Flacco ranked #14 in fantasy points/snap
• Flacco ranked #11 in fantasy points/opportunity (i.e., times Flacco passes or runs)
• Flacco ranked #6 in yards per attempt at 7.6 yards/attempt
• Flacco tied at #5 for his TD/INT ratio of 3 TD for every INT
• Flacco ranked #10 in opportunity/TD with 23 pass plays for every TD
• Flacco ranked #7 in opportunity/INT with 57 pass plays for every INT

From this above, it seems that Flacco posted more favorable pure football stats than fantasy statistics in 2010. However, the #14 ranking in FP/snaps clearly appears to be an outlier of all other stats above. If we look closer at his snap numbers, we see why. His snap numbers show that Flacco saw the fewest opportunities as a percentage of snaps than the other 15 QBs listed.

Lastly, let us not forget the bracket coverage issues and the offensive line issues that plagued the Ravens last season. To combat the bracket coverage problem, the Ravens drafted Torrey Smith who is well known for his speed and will open up the field and force safeties to respect his vertical threat opening up space for Boldin.

Considering Flacco finished as the #11 QB, his quarterback statistics rank top 10, and the fact that Torrey Smith was added to break up the bracket coverage smothering Boldin suggests that Flacco currently represents solid value with upside and opportunity.  A low end QB#1 that is available after pick #80 and over 2 rounds after Matt Ryan? Don’t mind if I do.

The case against Joe Flacco – Nishant Shailendra

I have many reasons to pass on Joe Flacco as a QB 1 in dynasty leagues.  First let us just go over his 2010 numbers in comparison to other QB's in the league in categories relevant to fantasy to get an idea of where he falls statistically:

Off the bat in Flacco's 3rd year, a year in which he finally got a receiving threat in Anquan Boldin, he is not a top five QB in any leading category.  Sure, he was able to sneak into the top 10 in yards and TD's, but can he repeat those numbers going forward?  Of course, but if you dig a little deeper and take a look at the past success of his offensive coordinator  Cam Cameron's former QB's, his chances of surpassing his 2010 numbers aren't great.

Here is a brief overview of QB's performed over the years with Cam Cameron calling offensive plays:

What stands out to me is that no QB under Cam Cameron has ever thrown more than 25 TD passes in a season.  Not to mention, in a league that has quickly shifted toward the pass, Cameron has made it a point to keep Flacco under 500 passes. That limits his upside as a top tier fantasy QB. Cameron has had QB's accrue over 500 attempts a few times, but let us look at how those team's defenses ranked in the years that occurred:

Cameron's history has shown that if his defense is terrible, his QB's pass more.  How does the Raven's defense rank?

With the Ravens, the total team defense over the past 3 seasons has ranked as follows:

I think the Ravens are an improved defense from 2010 to 2011 as they've gotten younger and will get back a number of starters who were hurt last  season.  If that's the case, you can expect Cameron to continue to keep Flacco under 500 pass attempts since the team should either have the lead or be within striking distance in most games they play.  This is the brand of football Baltimore prides itself on; run the ball to take time off the clock and wear out their opponent.  Good for the Ray Rice – bad for Joe Flacco.

To get a better idea of why there are better long term dynasty investments out there at QB, here is a list of QB's (in no particular order) that I would rather own over Flacco in any dynasty league: Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Matthew Stafford, Josh Freeman.  I think you'd be insane to argue for Flacco over one of the top tier QB's, but one might ask what the difference in upside is between Roethlisberger, Ryan, Stafford, Freeman and Flacco?  Sure, Cam Cameron might not be in Baltimore for much longer and in dynasty we try to think long run.  The difference is simple: Weapons.

Every one of those QB's listed ahead of Flacco has either a premier WR or an up and coming WR corps at their disposal. Roethlisberger has a stud WR in Mike Wallace.  With the addition of Julio Jones, the Falcons have made it clear that they're ready to open up the offense for Ryan.  Stafford has a slew of weapons in his arsenal, one of which just happens to be Calvin Johnson.  Freeman has Mike Williams along with emerging Arrelious Benn.

Who does Flacco have to throw to besides Ray Rice?  Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, and Todd Heap  have already seen their best years. Rookies Torrey Smith and Tandon Doss might become something, but with every QB listed above having far more dominant weapons, it's hard to hang your hat on the development of two rookies.  Based on how they've drafted, I think it's obvious that finding young, legitimate wide receiving threats to “grow up” with Joe Flacco is not a priority for the Ravens.

The Ravens are a better defensive team than an offensive one and in turn, that is their team's identity – that's a fact.  Without many receiving threats, I think Cam Cameron will ask Flacco to play to keep the Ravens in the game, while the offense flows through Ray Rice.  That, my friends, is a glass ceiling. You'll want to avoid Joe Flacco as a fill to your important QB 1 position.

Conclusion – Bryan Fontaine

I was truly objective about Joe Flacco’s dynasty league value before we started this debate.  Flacco ranked as my QB15 in my latest rankings update, which, depending on your league size, is a low-end QB1 or a high-end QB2, so I was willing to be swayed either way.  In my own dynasty leagues, I have taken a hold stance regarding his future.  I inherited a rebuilding team in a high-profile league earlier this year with Flacco on my roster.  I decided to retain him while I made several trades to reshape my roster.  I will say there is not much of a market for a QB on a conservative offense that produces steady but not spectacular fantasy points.  Now on to the debate:

Wyremski’s argument for Flacco was sound.  He acknowledged Baltimore’s struggles on the offensive line and a lack of a deep threat in 2010, which suppressed Flacco’s fantasy stats.  His use of fantasy points per snap and per opportunity played right to the judging panel (both happen to be personal favorite metrics here at PFF).  He concluded by stating that rookie speedster Torrey Smith will help create opportunities for the other receivers and benefiting Flacco.

Shailendra’s argument against Flacco was also sound.  He acknowledged Flacco’s statistical success in 2010, but gave several reasons why Flacco may never exceed those totals.  Shailendra focused on Cam Cameron’s history of play calling and a lack of a focus on the passing attack.  I do agree that it is important to look at the play calling; however, the correlation to the high number of passing attempts and the defensive rank may not tell the whole story.  Cameron’s defenses earlier in his career were the Chargers and Dolphins, not nearly in the caliber of a defense like the Ravens.  An interesting point nonetheless.  Shailendra concluded his argument by highlighting several quarterbacks he would rather have over Flacco, highlighting their strong options while casting doubt on Flacco’s supporting cast.

This was a tough decision to make.  To help with my decision, I decided to use Mike Clay’s QB projections because he researches trends and play-calling like no other.  His Flacco projections for 2011 include a ranking of QB16 with 498 passing attempts (22^nd among QB’s).  For Flacco to maintain his QB11 ranking from 2010, he will have to become more efficient with the same number of opportunities, which is unlikely based on the facts presented in this post.  Flacco is a strong QB2 option and someone that should be targeted if you waited on filling your QB1.  This was a great debate about Joe Flacco, but the winner of this edition of the Dynasty Duel is Nishant Shailendra.