Matthew Stafford has received more than enough press. He’s the golden boy of the “All Guts, All Glory Team,” and everybody knows that if given 16 games, he could easily throw for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. Everyone also knows that he’s missed more games than he’s played in over the first two years of his career, seeing time in only 13 games over two NFL seasons. As a result, he’s currently being taken as the QB13 on Draftmaster, ADPCalculator, Yahoo!, and as the QB17 on ESPN. This is a huge mistake; one that can be the difference between winning and losing your league.
Now I know what you’re going to say. “Stafford is just too much of an injury risk, there’s no way I’m drafting him.” Well… You might be right about his injury risk. So instead of trying to convince you that I can see the future and that I can tell you with one-hundred percent certainty that he will stay healthy all year, I’m going to convince you why you’re missing out on a great value for absolutely no reason. I am going to tell you how you can diversify away a majority of the risk, and get yourself a top ten quarterback for a fraction of the price. You can draft what I like to refer to as the Detroit Lions quarterback (DET QB).
The DET QB is a combination of Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill, and Drew Stanton, and takes a look at the Lions passing offense as a whole, rather than individually amongst quarterbacks.
Last season, the top three passing attacks, in terms of attempts, were the Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, and Detroit Lions. With rookie running back Mikel Leshoure going down with an Achilles injury, and the addition of deep threat Titus Young, there’s no reason that Detroit shouldn’t finish atop the league in passing attempts again. And if there’s one thing I know, it’s that more attempts leads to more yards and more touchdowns.
There’s also the natural level of growth in that offense, as all of the young Detroit weapons now have one more season under their belt. We’re not talking giant leaps, or even big steps. There should just be a simple increase in efficiency given the amount of young, explosive talent on that team gaining an additional year of experience.
Aside from Week 1, when Stafford went down and Hill filled in for him, and Week 6, when Hill fractured his forearm in the first half, the combination of Matthew Stafford and Shaun Hill averaged top ten numbers over the season. Over that same span, the DET QB finished as a top sixteen scorer ten times, with four finishes inside the top five. Overall, the DET QB finished as the 12th highest quarterback last season, despite going through three different players at the position. So it’s pretty evident that the DET QB can be a difference maker, regardless of who is actually under center, a testament to the quarterback friendly system in place.
So what’s the strategy that you take away from all of this? Well, that’s to fearlessly draft Stafford, then handcuff him with Shaun Hill, much like Mike Vick owners are advised to handcuff him with Vince Young. This way, you’re almost guaranteeing yourself strong quarterback production at the cost of Stafford plus a late round pick, or Stafford plus $1 in an auction league. The only real cost to you is the opportunity cost lost of grabbing another late round sleeper to fill that last bench spot. But given the top ten quarterback upside if Stafford were to go down, it’s well worth the cost to stash Hill. Don't hesitate to pull the trigger on Stafford if he falls outside of that top ten quarterback drafted, because it's all profit for you after that.
Questions and comments are always welcome via Twitter – @Eric_Yeomans
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