Fantasy: DJ Williams and the Non-Human Specimen

 Admittedly, I've been putting off writing this, just because I was waiting for the results of a re-test to see exactly what DJ Williams had submitted. If  you haven't heard by now, Williams was suspended for the first 6 games of the 2012 season for violating the league's substance abuse policy on PEDs.  Williams has appealed and looks like he will file a lawsuit against the league on the grounds of a “non-human” specimen was provided. What does this  mean for the Bronco WLB in 2012?

From an IDP stand-point, DJ Williams has been a solid producer of tackles and a heaping helping of splash plays. In 2012, Williams missed the first  3 games of the season, but still managed to be on the field for 930 snaps. Unfortunately for the Broncos, he ended up with some of his worst PFF  grading since the 2009 season, posting a negative grade against the run (-2.3) and was negative overall at -5.1. However, among those 4-3 OLBs that  were on the field for over 350 passing snaps, he tied for 6th in pass rushing productivity with an 11.0, generating 15 total pressures on 114 rush snaps, which led to 5 sacks on the year.  His run stop percentage wasn't among the top 4-3 OLBs either, notching just 25 stops in 384 run snaps. Now looking at what his absence will mean in IDP leagues, we'll take a look at his measurable numbers.

Let's take a look at his numbers since the 2008 season, where he has played both MLB and WLB in 4-3 and 3-4 schemes:

From an IDP stand-point, he's been a fantasy asset as he's put up solid tackle numbers and averages 4.5 sacks per season. His tackle efficiency was his lowest in 2011, but he's a solid tackler that rarely misses tackles, as he's averaged a tackle efficiency of 17.85, meaning he's only missing a tackle once in every 18 attempts (rounding up). In terms of the times he's making tackles, he has a decent tackle per snap percentage, as over the last 4 seasons he's making a tackle/assist in 10.2% of his snaps.

What does this mean for Williams in IDP leagues in 2012?

On March 9, Williams planned on filing an appeal trying to go the Ryan Braun route of defense, that the specimen wasn't safeguarded and mishandled. He also pointed out that the collector was fired by the NFL for compromising other specimens. It's unclear who, exactly, provided the non-human specimen but he'll definitely file an appeal and possibly sue the NFL. As of now, the 6 game suspensions are in place, but they'd be allowed to play if the appeal process lingers into the season.

There is a bit of a rub, as the Denver Post has reported that the Broncos could just cut ties with the soon to be 30 year old, as his cap number is $5 million dollars, non-guaranteed. If the suspension is upheld, Williams would be one to avoid in shallow IDP leagues, but, would be worth of placing on watch lists for a pickup once he's off suspension. However, in deeper leagues, he'd be worth a late round flier as a stash for use during the stretch run of the fantasy season, as he's shown he's puts up solid tackle numbers.

Is there a Bronco LB to target in IDP leagues?

Right off the bat, Wesley Woodyard's name comes to mind. Woodyard will be just 26 and is coming off career numbers in 2011. He logged 664 snaps and made 7 starts at both MLB and WLB, registering 84 tackles, though grading negatively overall at -8.2, he was efficient in run stopping by grading out at a +3.3. What was impressive, however, was his tackle efficiency, which led to his high tackle numbers. He ended up replacing Joe Mays at MIKE in nickel packages, so as a 4-3 ILB, he had a tackle efficiency of 13.7, missing just 1 tackle in that many attempts. However, when he was playing outside, his tackle efficiency was a 47.0, missing just 1 tackle total, in 283 defensive snaps at OLB, which led to making a tackle in 12.7% of his snaps. For, at least the first 6 games of 2012, Woodyard carries tremendous IDP value and will be worth drafting as an LB3.

Joe Mays is coming off a season where he posted 77 tackles, but missed 13, which ranked him near the bottom in tackle efficiency among 4-3 ILBs with a 6.9. He's more of a run-stopper, as that should be keep him on the field, as he tied Navorro Bowman for 1st among 4-3 ILBs with a stop percentage of 14.3. Mays, however, will come off the field in passing situations, plus he's going to be competing for playing time and snaps with Nate Irving, which is expected to diminish his overall IDP value. Unless playing in a much deeper IDP league, or an all-IDP league, Mays will be someone to avoid as Irving carries more upside in 2012.

To sum up, Williams' legal issues will be something to keep an eye on. According to early ADP data from MyFantasyLeague.com, DJ Williams is the 48th LB being drafted, a clear roster stash. If he can avoid suspension, he'll provide big ROI for those that took the chance on him, as he carries LB2 upside if he can play a full slate of 16 games.

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