Over the course of the process for determining our rankings, PFF's three-headed IDP “monster” (Jeffrey Ratcliffe, Ross Miles & Kevin Greenstein) engaged in a fairly large number of debates, evaluating the fantasy prospects of Curtis Lofton (pictured), Jason Babin, Giants DE's Osi Umenyiora and Mathias Kiwanuka, Joe Haden, Donte Whitner, and many others. Here are some of the most compelling subjects we tackled…
DEFENSIVE LINEMEN
Jason Babin (FA)
Ross: He was +24.0 in pass-rush, so although I downgraded him from 14 sacks to 10, I did credit him with making more tackles. I’m happy to downgrade him a little based on an expected change of scheme/franchise, but I stand by the fact he’s a solid player.
Jeff: One good season, not sure where he lands. Tough to rank.
Mathias Kiwanuka (NYG)
Ross: Kiwanuka had 4 sacks in 3 games and was saw 79.4% of snaps in that time before injury. Over the same timespan Umenyiora had 1 sack and was on the field for 62.3% of snaps. For me Umenyiora is also over-rated. He has too many games with 0 sacks and lacks consistency. He Without his w17 +8.4 performance he’d have only been graded at +4.8, the #41 4-3 DE. For these reasons, I prefer Kiwanuka!
Jeff: Don't see enough snaps in his future to give IDP value.
Kevin: To me, Kiwanuka is fourth in line for snaps after Tuck, Umenyiora, and Pierre-Paul. Assuming both Tuck and Umenyiora remain healthy, they'll both be fighting off Pierre Paul. In that environment, it's hard to imagine Kiwanuka making much of an impact, fantasy or otherwise.
Osi Umenyiora (NYG)
Ross: see above
Jeff on Kiwanuka: Do see enough snaps in his future to give IDP value.
Kevin: Umenyiora plays best when motivated, and he'll most definitely be motivated to keep his starting job from Pierre-Paul. Whether he'll succeed is a different matter altogether, but his fantasy stats should be quite good in 2011, especially with Amukamara giving the secondary an enormous boost.
LINEBACKERS
Aldon Smith (SF)
Ross: He’s too raw a prospect for my liking to be an impact player in 2011. I think he’ll struggle at times, might not see as many snaps as some predict and he wouldn’t crack my top 50 as a player who will need sacks to factor.
Kevin: Ears pinned back, rush the passer, half-dozen sacks minimum in that defense. Unless he's the next Gholston, but I don't think that's the case.
Stephen Tulloch (TEN)
Ross: I projected him 116 total tackles, but only 1 sack and 3 tackles for loss. He doesn’t turn the ball over enough, and in our scoring system that costs him in my rankings.
Jeff PFF's leading tackler last season. Also played 1222 snaps. Have him projected at 1147 snaps, which could go down if he lands somewhere else. His ranking would also decrease accordingly.
Curtis Lofton (ATL)
Ross: Same reasoning as Tulloch – I gave him 124 total tackles, but only tackles isn’t good enough to be a serious impact player.
Kevin: really smart football player. Like Rolando McClain, his value is greater than his fantasy value. Headset, leadership, reading plays, calling out audibles. Very good football player.
Jeff: Overrated. Only gives fantasy points via tackles, thus not a top-10 guy.
Chad Greenway (MIN)
Ross: I gave see Greenway making 8 tackles for loss, but only 1 sack, and 103 total tackles. He’s a similar profile to the others we are discussing here, but with some plays behing the line of scrimmage.
Jeff: A tackle on 11.2% of snaps last season, which is sick. I project him modestly at 9.6% this season. My rank may be a tad high, but I think 20 is way too low.
Kevin: With the Williamses likely getting suspended for the first four games, more runners will get through to the second level. In the short term, this could mean an upswing in tackles for Greenway. In that regard, he represents a nice arbitrage opportunity, where you can pick him up at a relative discount (under the auspice that the Williamses' suspension will have a deleterious effect) and then trade him after Week 4 for more than you would have gotten from the original draft pick (or auction dollars).
D.J. Williams (DEN)
Ross: Is he not being switched out to play WLB? On that basis I looked at his 2008 numbers and worked off those.
Jeff: My ranking is based on the shift to the 4-3, and my projected emergence of Joe Mays.
Kevin: Very hard to project what Denver's defense will look like. It feels like they might look very different after free agency, particularly if they go hard after a player like Albert Haynesworth. And that could have a major impact on the values of the linebackers and defensive backs.
LaMarr Woodley (PIT)
Ross: I’m the middle ground here – I projected 11 sacks and 54 total tackles. I’m comfortable with my rankings – seems more of an issue for you guys to argue!
Jeff: A tackle on 3.1% of his snaps last season and 3.7% in 2009. I project at 3.5%. Also projected at 9 sacks, but not enough points elsewhere to give IDP value.
Kevin: There are many reasons to believe that the Steelers will actually be a better team in 2011. Should that be the case – and should opposing teams find themselves passing more frequently in the second half – Woodley's sack numbers could go up to a level that makes him a very valuable fantasy asset.
Brian Orakpo (WAS)
Ross: Similar to Woodley, I had Orakpo with 10 sacks and 59 total tackles. He doesn’t force fumbles, so I can’t push him any higher really.
Jeff: Almost identical argument as Woodley.
Kevin: Almost identical in terms of potential, but it's hard to see where Orakpo's numbers will rise dramatically, not unless there's some major roster upheaval forthcoming.
Barrett Ruud (FA)
Kevin: benefited from playing on Bucs' D, may not be more than a back-up in 2011.
Jeff: free agent. Don't know where he lands. Will he play in a Tampa-2 or not? Will impact projections.
Ross: I’m similar to Kevin.
Zac Diles (HOU)
Ross: A change of scheme in Houston and more talented players in front of him on the depth chart, including rookie Brooks Reed who I like as a sleeper, so I see decreased playing time for Diles.
Jeff: second string player, won't see enough snaps as things currently stand.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Joe Haden (CLE)
Ross: I have a man crush on Haden. He was the top CB in last year’s draft, made 6 picks as a rookie and only became a starter (in name) in w12, although he was prominent in the Browns defense by w7. He graded +12.6 and had solid tackle numbers as a starter too…
Jeff: I like the guy, but where does he give big fantasy points? Have him projected at 63 tkls, 5 picks, and 16 PDs, but that puts him in the 20s in my rankings.
Kevin: Does his strong rookie season make him a “must avoid” situation as a sophomore? Or will the Browns' defense function more like the Jets'/Ravens', where Haden will be tasked with shutting down the opposition's top receiver in man-to-man coverage?
Tanard Jackson (TB)
Ross: Wikipedia says “he will not be eligible for reinstatement until September 22, 2011”. My projection is based on him playing 16 games…
Kurt Coleman (PHI)
Ross: I know Jeff really likes Coleman, but I think Jaiquawn Jarrett gives him a good run for his money, hence my projections.
Jeff: He's the 1st string SS over Jarrett for the time being. If he plays, he'll give value. If Jarrett earns the starting role, I will adjust accordingly.
Donte Whitner (BUF/FA)
Ross: Outside of last year, Whitner seems to be a a 65-70 solo tackles a year guy to me. He's unlikely to get a sack in 2011 (he only has 2 in his career), and averages 1 interception a year. I projected him for 96 total tackles (77 solo), 1 pick and 1 forced fumble, which leaves him lacking without impact plays.If you guys want to explain to me where you think I'm wrong on this I'm all ears… I see 2010 as an anomaly for him, I guess similar how Jeff sees Babin?
Jeff: Yes, he did have a break out year last season, but if you look closer it was not as much of a breakout as you may think. In 2010, he played 1121 snaps. That vastly trumps his 608 in '09 and 738 in '08. Take his tackle frequencies from both those two seasons and prorate them to his 2010 snap count and here's what you get:
-2009 w/ a 7.24 frequency equates to 81.2 solo tackles
-2008 w/ a 6.64 frequency equates to 73.4 solo tackles
Also, considering the guy is 25 years old and has shown improved tackle frequencies over each of the last three season, I think the sky is the limit. I have him projected for 88 solos, but he could easily approach the century mark. No, he won't get tons of points elsewhere, but with tackle numbers like that he's still a top-10 IDP DB.
Kevin: If he stays in Buffalo or goes to Cleveland (and stays healthy), a 100-tackle season wouldn't be out of the question. I don't see him getting very involved in the passing game, but moving to another 3-4 system would definitely benefit him (he played his best after Buffalo switched to a 3-4). The pedigree is there (eighth overall pick in 2006), and it seems like with expanded playing time Whitner actually has the ability to at least partially justify his lofty draft status.
Pat Chung (NE)
Ross: WOW! You guys like Chung! How come? Take away his blocked kicks and he’s pretty mediocre. I have him 2 INTs, 3 tackles for loss and 84 total tackles… You guys need to tell me why I’m wrong here!
Jeff: Everybody have fun tonight! I love Chung. A solo tackle on 8.6% of his snaps last season. I projected at 7.8%.
Kevin: A tackle machine with big-play potential. Not sure 24th-overall (my rankings) qualifies as “love,” but I think he'll be quite productive.
Cody Grimm (TB)
Ross: If Tanard Jackson remains suspended, I’ll rank Grimm!
Kevin: I'm a big Jackson fan, but the risk is seriously outweighing the reward at this point. The Bucs may feel similarly, which would give Grimm's fantasy outlook a huge uptick.
Morgan Burnett (GB)
Ross: Jeff has Burnett has the starter for GB as SS. I need to do some research and see if I agree, and what impact he’ll have.
Troy Nolan (HOU)
Ross: Didn’t I read that Glover Quin is now the #1 FS in Houston? I need to alter my rankings accordingly for that.
Jimmy Smith (BAL)
Ross: Ha! You’ll see on this one. I guess I like Smith’s talent. He’ll be tested as a day 1 starter, and I believe he has the talent to back it up and make plays. If I’m wrong, and he’s not that good, you guys will be closer to being right!
Kevin: I'm actually a huge believer that Smith will make a big impact in 2011. I just can't figure out how to project that impact in terms of fantasy, and I find myself balancing what I believe will happen with all of the necessary concerns about all rookies (and Smith in particular).
© 2025 PFF - all rights reserved.