The first week of preseason has come to a close, and while it has no impact on a team's final record, you can start to see what the players will look like during the regular season. The thing that stood out to me most was how good the Colts first team is compared to how bad the Colts second team is. It's always been obvious, but it's never been more obvious than now that everything Peyton Manning touches turns into fantasy gold. From a fantasy standpoint – can you really go wrong with a member of the Colts offense?
Peyton Manning was 8-of-10 for 91 yards and by the end of the game 14 (!) different players caught passes. I know it's preseason, and more players are bound to catch passes -but 14 is a lot. In Manning's two drives, 6 different receivers were targeted. Both Dallas Clark and Pierre Garcon didn't even play! Here is a chart of production from Manning's weapons last season:
Player | % Snaps | Thrown At | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns |
Reggie Wayne | 89 | 146 | 100 | 1264 | 10 |
Austin Collie | 68.8 | 85 | 60 | 676 | 7 |
Pierre Garcon | 91 | 88 | 47 | 765 | 4 |
Dallas Clark | 94.6 | 129 | 100 | 1106 | 10 |
When you add the playoffs and an average yards per target category, you can really see how guys like Collie and Garcon compared overall to the 2 main weapons (Wayne and Clark):
Player | % Snaps | Thrown At | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns | Avg YPT |
Reggie Wayne | 91 | 172 | 116 | 1424 | 11 | 8.28 |
Austin Collie | 72.4 | 111 | 77 | 917 | 9 | 8.26 |
Pierre Garcon | 92.3 | 120 | 68 | 1016 | 6 | 8.47 |
Dallas Clark | 96.2 | 155 | 118 | 1286 | 11 | 8.30 |
Peyton Manning knows how to spread the ball around, and all you fantasy owners should be aware of the benefits. Only 6 players had over 100 receptions last year, and two of them were on the Colts. Anthony Gonzalez returns from injury this season, which figures bite into the production of Garcon/Collie a bit. However, Gonzalez doesn't return as the immediate #2 wide receiver for the Colts. Collie and Gonzalez will duke it out in training camp for rights to the slot position while Wayne and Garcon handle #1 and #2. Recent news suggests that Collie is winning the camp battle – keep your eye on it as the preseason progresses.
In reality, though – being the #3 or #4 receiver on the Colts isn't really a bad thing. Last year's production of all four players proves that, and it isn't the first time Manning was able to heavily include many players. In 2004, three of Manning's receivers had over 1,000 yards and 10+ touchdowns, a feat not achieved by any other team. One of those receivers was Brandon Stokley and since departing from Indianapolis – his best season has been 635 yards and 5 touchdowns.
Wayne, Garcon, Gonzalez and Collie will likely see 50% of the team's offensive snaps. Three of them – most likely Wayne, Garcon, and Collie – will see 60% of the snaps. In fact, it's possible those three could see 75% of the snaps as well (it was close last year). It may seem like the Colts almost have too many options – but that just isn't true. Manning had the second most pass attempts last year (571) and he was only sacked 10 times, easily the fewest in the league for QBs who took at least 75% of the snaps. Indianapolis only plays 3 teams that had a PFF pass defense rating that wasn't negative last year – the Texans, Bengals and Cowboys. They play the Titans and Jaguars twice each, who ranked 31st and 30th in that category, respectively. A schedule like that will bode well for all Colt owners.
Peyton Manning has been dominant for far too long to stop any time soon and the influx of young talent around him will only help. He was the lead role in revolutionizing NFL to a pass-first league and his teammates have been reaping the benefits ever since. He has passed for over 4,000 yards in 10 of his 12 seasons. Marvin Harrison experienced 8 straight seasons of 1,100+ yards and double digit touchdowns. Reggie Wayne has a nice streak going himself, coming off of his 6th straight 1,000+ yard season. Somehow, one quarterback always seems to step up each year and beat Manning out as the top fantasy QB – but when it comes to raising the level of play of those around him, nobody matches Peyton Manning.