With mock drafts and draftmaster leagues going full steam, now is as good a time as any to take a look at each team’s strength of schedule by position in 2011.
A few weeks ago I drew up a pair of articles that explained and examined how I come up with strength of schedule factors. One focused on run defense and the other on pass defense. Although I didn’t break those 2 pieces down by position (QB HB WR TE) and instead focused on overall pass/run defense, note that today’s rankings will, in fact, use different factors for each position.
Example: Opposing players scored a touchdown on 0.3% more of their receptions when playing against the 2010 Arizona Cardinals than they did against the rest of their schedule. However, opposing running backs saw a 0.3% drop in their rate, opposing wide receivers saw a -1.3% drop in their rate, and opposing tight ends enjoyed a whopping 5.1% increase in their rate.
Instead of applying +0.3% to the entire team, I break it down by position to ensure additional accuracy.
Note that this project is exclusively based on team defensive production during the 2010 regular season. The 2010 defensive data was applied to the 2011 schedule, which gives us our results. Obviously, some defenses will improve and others will be worse this time around, but there is still plenty we can learn, especially considering the consistency we’ve seen from some of the best and worst defense of the last 3 years.
You’ll notice several different categories of rankings listed here. There are 4 different positions (QB HB WR TE) and 3 different timespans for each position (weeks 1-16, weeks 1-13, weeks 14-16). This is to give you an idea of your player’s overall strength of schedule (1-16), his SoS during the standard fantasy regular season (1-13), and his SoS during the standard fantasy playoffs (14-16). Week 17 was omitted, as most leagues rarely count that week.
Scoring: Passing (20/6/-2), Rushing (10/6), Receiving (1/10/6)
QUARTERBACKS
Easiest Schedule – Weeks 1-16
1. Redskins – We don't know who will be under center yet, but give whoever it is a boost. John Beck anyone?
2. Eagles – This should break the ADP tie he currently has with Aaron Rodgers.
3. Cowboys – Returning from injury will be easier than expected for Tony Romo.
4. Dolphins – Chad Henne is the current benefactor, but will he be the starter come week 1?
5. 49ers – Alex Smith will be feeling the pressure, but an easier schedule will help.
Easiest Schedule – Weeks 1-13
1. Redskins –
2. Cowboys –
3. Eagles –
4. Browns – The AFC North is never easy, but Colt McCoy is sitting pretty nonetheless.
5. Dolphins –
Easiest Schedule – Weeks 14-16
1. Bengals – HOU STL ARZ – Andy Dalton will be worth a look in deep leagues.
2. Dolphins – PHI BUF NE
3. Eagles – MIA NYJ DAL
4. Bears – DEN SEA GB – Jay Cutler will have back-end QB1 value.
5. Steelers – CLE SF STL – Big Ben should be able to come up big when it counts most.
Toughest Schedule – Weeks 1-16
1. Vikings – Christian Ponder has a chance to be the top rookie fantasy QB, but this won't help.
2. Lions – Potential breakout Matt Stafford is facing an uphill climb.
3. Chiefs – Matt Cassel will have a tough time repeating his stellar 2010 campaign.
4. Buccaneers – A breakout in 2010, Josh Freeman's hands will be full this time around.
5. Packers – Aaron Rodgers will make a push to be fantasy's top QB, but it won't be easy.
Toughest Schedule – Weeks 1-13
1. Panthers – As if Cam Newton's job wasn't tough enough…
2. Buccaneers –
3. Vikings –
4. Packers –
5. Bears – Tough schedule early on + easy playoff schedule = buy Jay Cutler low at the deadline
Toughest Schedule – Weeks 14-16
1. Ravens – IND SD CLE – Make sure you have an option besides Joe Flacco when the playoffs come around.
2. Texans – CIN CAR IND – Matt Schaub owners might be in trouble come playoff time.
3. Raiders – GB DET KC – Jason Campbell shouldn't be in your lineup anyways.
4. Browns – PIT ARZ BAL – 2 of the 3 vs. the Ravens and Steelers. Tough break, Colt McCoy owners.
5. Vikings – DET NO WAS
HALFBACKS
Easiest Schedule – Weeks 1-16
1. Vikings – I'm not in love with Adrian Peterson this year, especially in PPR, but this gives him a solid boost.
2. Falcons – The posterboy for PPR victims, Michael Turner catches a break with an easy schedule.
3. Cowboys – Felix Jones will regress regardless, but an easy schedule gives him an even bigger advantage.
4. Bears – Fresh off a big year, Matt Forte will enjoy a few extra easier defenses in 2011.
5. Titans – Chris Johnson owners rejoice.
Easiest Schedule – Weeks 1-13
1. Cowboys –
2. Jets – Considering how often the Jets run, Shonn Greene should have a huge regular season.
3. Vikings –
4. 49ers – Frank Gore will be the workhorse and the schedule will be kind.
5. Saints – Mark Ingram is a rookie, but his schedule will help hedge some of the risk.
Easiest Schedule – Weeks 14-16
1. Falcons – CAR JAX NO
2. Bengals – HOU STL ARZ – Cedric Benson owners will be in for a treat come playoff time.
3. Bears – DEN SEA GB
4. Vikings – DET NO WAS
5. Dolphins – PHI BUF NE – Rookie Daniel Thomas sees a boost during the fantasy playoffs.
Toughest Schedule – Weeks 1-16
1. Seahawks – Bad news for Marshawn Lynch, who will be kicking off his first full season in Seattle.
2. Patriots – BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Shane Vereen, and/or Stevan Ridley are in for a challenge.
3. Jaguars – Maurice Jones-Drew's value takes a hit…
4. Ravens – …as does fellow top fantasy RB pick, Ray Rice.
5. Bills – Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller will have their hands full.
Toughest Schedule – Weeks 1-13
1. Patriots –
2. Broncos – The regular season will be a challenge for Knowshon Moreno
3. Bills –
4. Jaguars –
5. Seahawks –
Toughest Schedule – Weeks 14-16
1. Eagles – MIA NYJ DAL – LeSean McCoy owners will need to be concerned come playoff time.
2. Chiefs – NYJ GB OAK – As will Jamaal Charles owners, who will see both the Jets and Packers
3. Saints – TEN MIN ATL – The regular season might be generous, but Mark Ingram will have his hands full here.
4. Browns – PIT ARZ BAL – Similar to 2010, expect Peyton Hillis to take a step back late in the season.
5. Rams – SEA CIN PIT – The playoffs will be hard on Steven Jackson, especially come Championship week.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Easiest Schedule – Weeks 1-16
1. Cardinals – They may not have a quarterback yet, but Larry Fitzgerald has plenty to look forward to, regardless.
2. Seahawks – Mike X. Williams and Ben Obomanu get a boost.
3. Steelers – Mike Wallace and Hines Ward are sitting pretty this season.
4. Eagles – DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin should both be in for another big year.
5. Bengals – AJ Green's rookie season and Jerome Simpson's first as a starter will be a little easier than expected.
Easiest Schedule – Weeks 1-13
1. Ravens – Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason will see additional value during the regular season.
2. Eagles –
3. Cardinals –
4. Seahawks –
5. Browns – Keep an eye on Mohamed Massaquoi and Greg Little early in the season.
Easiest Schedule – Weeks 14-16
1. Steelers – CLE SF STL
2. Seahawks – STL CHI SF
3. Cardinals – SF CLE CIN
4. Rams – SEA CIN PIT – The Rams will spread it around, but Mark Clayton should be in for a playoff boost.
5. Bengals – HOU STL ARZ
Toughest Schedule – Weeks 1-16
1. Vikings – Similar to their quarterback, Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin are in for a tough 2011 season.
2. Chiefs – It won't be easy for Dwayne Bowe and rookie Jon Baldwin
3. Bears – Johnny Knox and Earl Bennett will have their hands full all season long.
4. Broncos – Brandon Lloyd will have a tough time repeating as fantasy's top wideout.
5. Packers – Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and Jordy Nelson are in for a challenge.
Toughest Schedule – Weeks 1-13
1. Bears –
2. Vikings –
3. Broncos –
4. Chiefs –
5. Packers –
Toughest Schedule – Weeks 14-16
1. Chiefs – NYJ GB OAK
2. Lions – MIN OAK SD – Calvin Johnson owners need be aware come playoff time.
3. Ravens – IND SD CLE – Boldin/Mason will enjoy the league's easiest regular season. Sell high at the deadline.
4. Bills – SD MIA DEN – Steve Johnson and Lee Evans lose some value come playoff time.
5. Raiders – GB DET KC – Jacoby Ford owners should make other plans during the playoffs.
TIGHT ENDS
Easiest Schedule – Weeks 1-16
1. Jets – This should be enough to boost Dustin Keller into back-end TE1 territory.
2. Dolphins – An easy schedule will have owners considering Anthony Fasano as their TE2.
3. Saints – Jimmy Graham is already considered a top 10 fantasy TE and this boosts him even more.
4. Bears – Greg Olsen is stuck in a Martz offense, but the Bears schedule does favor him.
5. Vikings – Visanthe Shiancoe and Kyle Rudolph will steal each other's thunder, but the schedule is appealing.
Easiest Schedule – Weeks 1-13
1. Jets –
2. Vikings –
3. Giants – Kevin Boss' schedule makes him worth TE2 consideration.
4. Eagles – Looking for a rebound season, Brent Celek's regular season schedule will help the cause.
5. Saints –
Easiest Schedule – Weeks 14-16
1. Dolphins – PHI BUF NE
2. Broncos – CHI NE BUF – Could this be where rookie Julius Thomas breaks out?
3. Panthers – ATL HOU TB – Jeremy Shockey should be in for a strong finish to 2011.
4. Jaguars – TB ATL TEN – Marcedes Lewis is set up for a strong fantasy playoff performance.
5. Bears – DEN SEA GB
Toughest Schedule – Weeks 1-16
1. Cardinals – Rookie Robert Housler will have his hands full all season long.
2. Seahawks – John Carlson has been underwhelming and the schedule makes a 2011 breakout even more unlikely.
3. Ravens – What is likely to be Todd Heap's final season as a Raven won't be easy.
4. Rams – Lance Kendricks already has very little fantasy value in 2011. This won't help.
5. Lions – 2010 breakout Brandon Pettigrew's schedule might force him to take a step back this time around.
Toughest Schedule – Weeks 1-13
1. Ravens –
2. Seahawks –
3. 49ers – Vernon Davis falls even further behind the “big 4” due to a tough regular season schedule.
4. Cardinals –
5. Bengals – Jermaine Gresham is a breakout candidate, but his schedule won't help the cause.
Toughest Schedule – Weeks 14-16
1. Cardinals – SF CLE CIN
2. Giants – DAL WAS NYJ – The regular season will be easy, but the playoffs will be a challenge for Kevin Boss.
3. Steelers – CLE SF STL – Heath Miller owners should go another direction during the fantasy playoffs.
4. Eagles – MIA NYJ DAL – Similar to Boss, Celek's easy regualar season doesn't carry over to the playoffs.
5. Seahawks – STL CHI SF
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