In case you missed it, yesterday we brought you some looks at which running backs were facing the most stacked boxes. The results were hardly surprising (to us), as Frank Gore led the way, with Adrian Peterson in third sandwiched between a couple of Jets running backs.
Now while a lot can be inferred from which backs (and teams) are contending with the highest percentage of eight men in the box, you need to delve a bit deeper to understand why it is happening.
Take the 49ers and Frank Gore. When he rushed the ball, 42.25% of the time he faced eight men in the box. However, the 49ers invited this on themselves because on 53.49% of the time he rushed the ball they lined up with one or zero receivers split out (this refers to not how many receivers were on the field, but classes a tight end split out wide or in the slot, as “split out” because logically a defensive player will follow them).
So today we’re going to bring you even more data that sets about evening things up. We’re going to start by showing you the numbers when you simply look at the single- or zero-receiver split out sets, and then follow that up by looking at when they faced two receivers split out.
The League Average
To start off, it should be noted that on average NFL teams rush the ball with a single (or fewer) receiver sets on 21.74% of their rushes. Now you might think that this would be heavily skewed by short yardage (3 yards or less needed for a first down or touchdown), but the reality is that only 17.62% of these short yardage runs featured one or fewer offensive players split out as a wide receiver, though defenses were more likely (26.54% of the time) to stack the box regardless of how many guys were split out wide.
As mentioned, Frank Gore ran from a single (or zero) split out receiver set 53.49% of the time, which was comfortably the highest in the league. Shonn Greene was second and Adrian Peterson was third. The full table can be seen below.
[table id=849 /]
Dealing with Eight Men the Most Per Rush
So that will help to explain why Frank Gore was the runaway leader in the overall stakes. However, to level the playing field let’s give you the percentage of times a running back faced a stacked box relative to when they had no more than one receiver lined up. Now, near the top of this list you’ll see guys who benefit massively from a small sample size, so remember that when you’re looking at the table.
[table id=850 /]
Later on today we’re going to move onto what is, in my mind, a more interesting study looking at two split out receiver sets. There, because those formations force defenses to respect the passing option as well, we'll get a better idea of which teams are really attracting more defenders into the box.
Stay tuned and that will be out later.
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