Determining Play-Making Ability using 'oTD'

Before I kick this off, if you haven’t read my introduction to opportunity-adjusted receiving touchdowns, I highly recommend you do that first.

In that initial ‘oTD’ article, I used the location of each pass-catcher’s targets as a basis for an adjusted touchdown number. This adjusted touchdown figure worked as an excellent replacement for flawed redzone data, but we weren’t able to generate any theories as to its relationship to player talent. It was an opportunity stat and didn’t take a player’s catch rate or the ability of the passer into account.

In my second piece on the subject, I looked at ‘oTD’ as related to rushing attempts. In this article, we discovered that players generally considered elite at the position scored more touchdowns than expected. On the other hand, we saw a long list of underwhelming rushers putting up a lower actual number of touchdowns than they did expected (oTD).

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Today, I’m going to bounce back to the passing game, this time focusing on receptions instead of targets. In this study, ‘oTD’ is going to be influenced by a receiver’s ability to catch the ball (in the sense that targets add zero, while any reception adds a chance of a score) and the ability of the quarterback. You’ll notice that several of the players with high ‘oTD’ numbers enjoy the benefit of catching balls thrown by elite quarterbacks. Why is that? Receivers are going to catch a higher percentage of their targets and will be targeted near the endzone more often when they’re working with a skilled quarterback.

My main focus today will be on the difference between actual and expected touchdowns, but I’ll kick off the same way I did the first two articles with sortable charts showing (1) the touchdown rates when the ball is caught at each yard line and (2) each player who caught at least one pass during the 2012 season.

The first chart shows four columns: ‘DEZ’ (Distance from endzone when the pass reaches the target), receptions in sample, touchdowns, and touchdown rate.

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Out next chart has five columns. They are the player’s 2012 receptions, his cADEZ (average DEZ on completions), actual touchdowns, oTD, and the difference between actual TD and oTD.

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Next, I’m going to take a look at the players who most outperformed their expected touchdown total during the 2012 season.

Remember: any reference to a yard line is not the line of scrimmage; it’s the distance, in yardage, between the player and the endzone when the catch was made.

2012 Overachievers

When you think about receivers who can make big plays in the open field, Dez Bryant and Michael Crabtree certainly come to mind. Bryant scored 12 times last season, but based on the location of his receptions, the average player would’ve scored nearly eight times. Crabtree found paydirt nine times during the 2012 regular season, which is was 3.7 scores below his oTD. We discussed these guys in the first oTD article, so I’ll leave it at that and focus on some new names.

A breakout sensation in 2012, Cecil Shorts caught seven touchdowns despite the Jaguars’ quarterback struggles. He was in the endzone on only one of the scores, but did take three in from one yard out. The other three scores included long runs to the endzone (39, 62, and 64 yards). Interestingly, Shorts caught only four passes inside the 13 yard line all season, scoring on all four.

Aside of a handful of drops, T.Y. Hilton had a strong rookie season. He shows up as an overachiever because four of his seven scores came from distances of at least 13 yards. He was in the endzone on three of his touchdowns, but had to travel 13, 14, 22, and 33 yards on the others. He caught only five balls while inside the 10 yard line on the year.

2012 Underachievers

Okay, I can’t really beat the drum on Calvin Johnson any harder than I already have. At this point, I think everyone and their great aunt Bertha knows that Johnson was tackled at the one yard line five times last year. He struggled inside the endzone, too, but he’s going to regress for the better in 2013. Count on it.

Ronnie Brown is the first running back to pop up today. It’s saying a lot that he’s fourth on this list despite seeing only 49 carries (and out of the backfield). So, what happened? Well, most importantly, he failed to score. He caught five balls inside the eight yard line and a total of 13 inside the 22.

We see a lot of slot receivers/tight ends on this list. One of them is Danny Amendola, who is fairly intriguing when you consider his move to New England. You wouldn’t consider Amendola much of an endzone target, but he did have the opportunity to double his scores in 2012. Both of his touchdowns came while he was in the endzone last season. Other than those two, he had no receptions inside the five, but did catch five passes in the five-to-eight yard range.

Five-Year Overachievers

Shown in the above chart are the 15 players who scored the highest number of touchdowns above their expected (or ‘oTD’) during the last five regular seasons.

Needless to say, this is an extremely impressive list of players. Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Terrell Owens, Dez Bryant, Michael Crabtree, and Randy Moss are/were unquestionably among the most gifted wide receivers in the league.

The name that should really jump off the page here is Darren Sproles. If you think about it though, it makes perfect sense that he’d rate well here. He’s targeted a ton, but almost never while in the endzone, and is one of the game’s top playmakers. Nonetheless, let’s take a deeper look. Sproles has caught only two balls while in the endzone over the last five years. He’s taken two in from one yard out and a total of 10 from inside the 10 yard line. Of Sproles’ 25 receiving touchdowns, a whopping 11 have come after runs of 20-plus yards, including four over 45 yards. Of 16 receptions between one and nine yards away from the endzone, Sproles converted eight into scores.

Miles Austin has caught 13 touchdowns while already in the endzone. Of his 34 scores over the last five years, seven have come from distances of 24-plus yards out. Austin has touchdown runs of 43, 45, 51, and 54 yards to his name. He’s caught 18 balls between one and nine yards out of the endzone, scoring on exactly half.

Of DeSean Jackson’s 23 scores, only eight have come while in the endzone. He took only three others into the endzone from inside the 14 yard line (three, three, and four yards). He has eight scores of 33-plus yards, including two over 58 yards.

Five-Year Underachievers

On the other hand, we have the players who failed to convert their share of opportunities into touchdowns. We see a handful of talented players on this list, but it’s relatively underwhelming overall.

Tony Gonzalez should jump off the page. Arguably the worst player in the league after the catch (not an exaggeration), Gonzalez was already inside the boundaries of the endzone on an incredible 29 (or 78 percent) of his 37 touchdowns over the last five years. Six of the other eight scores were scampers of no more than five yards. He ran 16 and 28 yards on the other two, converting only two of 378 receptions outside the opponent’s five yard line into touchdowns. Of 22 receptions between one and nine yards away from the endzone, Gonzalez converted only six.

Marques Colston has an impressive 39 touchdowns since 2008 (highest mark in our top 15), but the math says he should’ve had four more. Consider that Colston was already in the endzone when he caught 24 (or 62 percent) of those touchdowns. He was inside the five on 10 others and only one of the 43 included a run of a distance longer than 13 yards (43 yards). Colston has converted only 12-of-35 catches between one and nine yards from the endzone into a score.

Considering his stature, it’s hard to believe Jermichael Finley is on this last. Of his 17 scores, Finley was in the endzone on 13 of them. The other four were from distances of one, four, 16, and 37 yards. Of five receptions within two yards of the endzone, Finley has somehow converted only one into a score.

Wrap

That’s that on opportunity-adjusted touchdowns for now. Five years of data provides us plenty of reason to believe that ‘oTD’ is a significantly better indicator of scoring potential than plain old redzone data. Additionally, by comparing actual touchdowns to opportunity-adjusted scores we can quantifiably determine superior and inferior playmakers. The next big step will be determining the predictably of historical ‘oTD’, a subject I’ll be focusing on for years to come.

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Follow Mike Clay on Twitter at @MikeClayNFL