Betting News & Analysis

Best Early-Sunday Bets in NFL Week 12: Player props, spread bets and more

Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) watches an official review on the big screen in the fourth quarter of the NFL Week 7 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Atlanta Falcons at Paycor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022. The Bengals won 35-17. Mandatory Credit: Sam Greene-The Enquirer

Bet Bengals RB Samaje Perine u44.5 rush yards vs Titans: Bengals pass at third-highest rate over expected, which won't change without Joe Mixon against Tennessee's third-ranked run defense.

• Perine is the Bengals' preferred receiving back; Titans allowing only 3.9 ypc this season.

Bet Jets RB Michael Carter anytime TD vs Bears: Mike White looked Carter's way often on checkdowns last season (29 targets in 4 White starts); Chicago isn't stopping anyone lately.

Last updated: Nov. 27, 9:40 a.m.

Estimated reading time: 3 mins


Here are PFF staff best bets in the early-Sunday window in Week 12:

Arjun Menon: Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin — Over 60.5 receiving yards vs Atlanta Falcons

Bet Gameplan: Playable to 62.5

Atlanta allows the most receiving yards to wide receivers of any defense in the NFL: As seen in the graphic above by analyst Ben Brown, receiving yards overs have been very profitable vs the Falcons this season.

Even with the return of A.J. Terrell, McLaurin should have his way with this Falcons defense: Terrell actually has not been that great in coverage this season (51.2 PFF coverage grade).

McLaurin was on pace to easily go over his receiving-yard total in Week 11: But a negative game script eliminated that chance vs the Houston Texans. Washington should get a better fight from Atlanta.

Tej Seth: Cincinnati Bengals RB Samaje Perine — Under 44.5 rush yards at Tennessee Titans 

Bet Gameplan: Playable to 42.5

• Titans run ‘D' is stout: The Titans allow only 3.9 yards per carry this season, 3rd-best in the NFL. They are also PFF’s 3rd-highest-graded run defense unit and should prove to be a tough matchup for the Bengals.

Judah Fortgang: Joe Burrow 300+ pass yards / Bengals -5.5 (+518)

• With Joe Mixon out, Ja'Marr Chase back in and the Titans functioning as the biggest pass-funnel matchup in the NFL, Joe Burrow is set to shine — as he has in obvious passing situations all season. If the Bengals win this game by a strong margin, it will certainly be on the backs of a big passing day from Burrow. Richard Janvrin: New York Jets RB Michael Carter anytime TD (+145) vs Chicago Bears

Bet Gameplan: Playable to +125

Mike White Loves To Checkdown: With Zach Wilson headed to the bench, the Jets are now turning things over to White, who played in a few 2021 games, when he loved throwing short. In fact, 65.2% of his attempts were either behind the line of scrimmage (15.2%) or between 0-9 yards (50%). This kind of passing game is excellent for Carter, who’s been a reliable receiving back since coming into the NFL. He saw 29 targets in the four games White played, which was more than 50% of his season total. Carter is also averaging 9.3 carries per game. At +145, this is an excellent price for a player that should get action in both the passing and receiving game.

PFF Greenline top play: Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa — Over 2.5 pass TDs vs Houston Texans

At +150, Greenline finds a 29.7% edge — the second-biggest of Week 12. Tagovailoa is as hot as any quarterback, with at least 3 TD tosses in three consecutive games, and no interceptions over that span, when he's completing over 77 percent of his attempts, at 12.4 yards each. It's a ridiculous run, and there's little reason to expect it ends Sunday against Houston's horrible defense (31st in PFF overall defensive grade and in coverage), which might be charged with a few extra series, with Kyle Allen making his 2022 starting debut.

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