• Bet Bengals RB Samaje Perine u44.5 rush yards vs Titans: Bengals pass at third-highest rate over expected, which won't change without Joe Mixon against Tennessee's third-ranked run defense.
• Perine is the Bengals' preferred receiving back; Titans allowing only 3.9 ypc this season.
• Bet Jets RB Michael Carter anytime TD vs Bears: Mike White looked Carter's way often on checkdowns last season (29 targets in 4 White starts); Chicago isn't stopping anyone lately.
Last updated: Nov. 27, 9:40 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
Here are PFF staff best bets in the early-Sunday window in Week 12:
Arjun Menon: Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin — Over 60.5 receiving yards vs Atlanta Falcons
Bet Gameplan: Playable to 62.5
• Atlanta allows the most receiving yards to wide receivers of any defense in the NFL: As seen in the graphic above by analyst Ben Brown, receiving yards overs have been very profitable vs the Falcons this season.
• Even with the return of A.J. Terrell, McLaurin should have his way with this Falcons defense: Terrell actually has not been that great in coverage this season (51.2 PFF coverage grade).
• McLaurin was on pace to easily go over his receiving-yard total in Week 11: But a negative game script eliminated that chance vs the Houston Texans. Washington should get a better fight from Atlanta.
Tej Seth: Cincinnati Bengals RB Samaje Perine — Under 44.5 rush yards at Tennessee Titans
Bet Gameplan: Playable to 42.5
• Titans run ‘D' is stout: The Titans allow only 3.9 yards per carry this season, 3rd-best in the NFL. They are also PFF’s 3rd-highest-graded run defense unit and should prove to be a tough matchup for the Bengals.
Judah Fortgang: Joe Burrow 300+ pass yards / Bengals -5.5 (+518)
• With Joe Mixon out, Ja'Marr Chase back in and the Titans functioning as the biggest pass-funnel matchup in the NFL, Joe Burrow is set to shine — as he has in obvious passing situations all season. If the Bengals win this game by a strong margin, it will certainly be on the backs of a big passing day from Burrow. Richard Janvrin: New York Jets RB Michael Carter anytime TD (+145) vs Chicago Bears
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +125
• Mike White Loves To Checkdown: With Zach Wilson headed to the bench, the Jets are now turning things over to White, who played in a few 2021 games, when he loved throwing short. In fact, 65.2% of his attempts were either behind the line of scrimmage (15.2%) or between 0-9 yards (50%). This kind of passing game is excellent for Carter, who’s been a reliable receiving back since coming into the NFL. He saw 29 targets in the four games White played, which was more than 50% of his season total. Carter is also averaging 9.3 carries per game. At +145, this is an excellent price for a player that should get action in both the passing and receiving game.
PFF Greenline top play: Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa — Over 2.5 pass TDs vs Houston Texans
At +150, Greenline finds a 29.7% edge — the second-biggest of Week 12. Tagovailoa is as hot as any quarterback, with at least 3 TD tosses in three consecutive games, and no interceptions over that span, when he's completing over 77 percent of his attempts, at 12.4 yards each. It's a ridiculous run, and there's little reason to expect it ends Sunday against Houston's horrible defense (31st in PFF overall defensive grade and in coverage), which might be charged with a few extra series, with Kyle Allen making his 2022 starting debut.