• Bet Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill anytime TD vs Texans: PFF's top-graded player on offense, Hill's ‘Phins likely to explode as 14-point favorites.
• Bet Jets RB Michael Carter anytime TD vs Bears: Move to Mike White a good one for Carter, one of his biggest check-down beneficiaries last year.
• +145 is a great price on Carter, who'll be involved in the run and pass game vs Bears' hibernating defense.
Last updated: Nov. 25, 10:10 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
Bet: Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill anytime TD (-140) vs Houston Texans
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -160
• Dolphins might drop 100: Out of 117 receivers, Hill ranks No. 1 in PFF offensive grade (92.0). This week against the Texans, the Dolphins are 14-point home favorites over a team that’s turning the reins over to Kyle Allen, who hasn’t started an NFL game since 2020. The Texans don’t allow many passing yards, but that’s mostly because opposing teams can run on them for 180+ yards. Texans CB Steven Nelson has an impressive coverage grade (77.3). Still, he and the rest of the secondary will struggle to contain arguably the best receiver in football.
Bet: Denver Broncos D/ST anytime TD (+750) @ Carolina Panthers
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +700
• Sam Darnold is starting: Whenever you bet on a defense to score a touchdown, you’ll always get great odds because it’s pretty random. However, against the Panthers on the road, the Broncos defense, both pass rush and secondary, are one of the best units this season. It’s too bad their offense and quarterback Russell Wilson can’t step it up because they’ve earned a 77.3 grade from us this year, with an 88.2 coverage grade (best in the league). This is Darnold’s first start this season. Last year, he completed less than 60% of his passes, had 13 interceptions, and had 21 turnover-worthy plays (4.3% turnover-worthy play rate).
Bet: Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin anytime TD (+160) vs Atlanta Falcons
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +145
• Another solid matchup: McLaurin hasn’t scored since Week 7, but he’s had multiple great performances since then, including two 110+ receiving yard games. Last week, against the Texans, he only attracted six targets but caught four for 55 yards. It was a bit of a letdown, but this week he draws matchups against Darren Hall (67.7 coverage grade) and A.J. Terrell (51.2 coverage grade). Hall started the year pretty well, but he’s come back down to earth, allowing 13 receptions on 17 targets since Week 7.
Bet Falcons WR Drake London anytime TD (+310)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +300
• Three games in a row?: It’s no secret that Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota doesn’t throw all that often — he’s attempted 25 passes in a game only four times this season. Our player prop tool gives Mariota an 8% edge when it comes to over 158.5 passing yards, but there’s also a 2.9% edge on the under of 0.5 passing touchdowns. London has seen 16 targets over his past three games and scored touchdowns in each of his previous two. The Commanders' CB group isn’t that impressive, with Benjamin St-Juste (63.3 coverage grade) and Kendall Fuller (61.9 coverage grade), but the safeties have been excellent. The Commanders will get Chase Young back in this one off the edge, which will help the pass rush. The Falcons are our 20th-graded pass-blocking unit — not great, but not terrible. As four-point road dogs, Mariota's Falcons must throw more in critical situations, including the red zone. Without tight end Kyle Pitts, London becomes the go-to red zone option. At +310, this is worth a shot.
Bet: New York Jets RB Michael Carter anytime TD (+145) vs Chicago Bears
• Mike White Loves To Checkdown: With Zach Wilson headed to the bench, the Jets are now turning things over to White, who played in a few 2021 games, when he loved throwing short. In fact, 65.2% of his attempts were either behind the line of scrimmage (15.2%) or between 0-9 yards (50%). This kind of passing game is excellent for Carter, who’s been a reliable receiving back since coming into the NFL. He saw 29 targets in the four games White played, which was more than 50% of his season total. Carter is also averaging 9.3 carries per game. At +145, this is an excellent price for a player that should get action in both the passing and receiving game.