Best Late-Sunday Bets in NFL Week 12: Player props, spread bets and more

Chicago, Illinois, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell (25) rushes the ball against Chicago Bears safety Jaquan Brisker (9) during the first half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

Bet Seahawks QB Geno Smith o1.5 pass TDs vs Raiders: Vegas is NFL's worst pass defense in EPA; Smith over in 8/10 this season.

Bet Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes o2.5 pass TDs vs Rams: He's over in 6/10 this season, even better than his 49.7% career mark.

Bet Saints +8.5 at 49ers: Garoppolo's Niners are 1-8-1 as a home favorite of 6 points or more; this number should be 7/7.5.

Last updated: Nov. 27, 3:00 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 3 mins

PFF staff best bets in the late-Sunday slate in Week 12:

Martyn Carlisle: San Francisco 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell — Over 42.5 rush yards (-110) vs New Orleans Saints

Bet Gameplan: Playable to 47.5
• The Saints have given up the 4th-highest success rate to opposing running backs over the past four weeks, including letting Cam Akers run for 4.4 yards per carry, Kenyan Drake and Najee Harris rush for over 90 yards each. New Orleans now faces PFF's 4th-highest-graded rush attack over the past month, a significant step up over the Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Rams offensive lines.
• Elijah Mitchell has led the 49ers in carries in both games since he returned from injury, and the betting market still suggests he is the backup rushing option behind Christian McCaffrey. CMC will play twice as many snaps, but if Mitchell is on the field, the 49ers are running the ball.

Tej Seth: Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes — Over 2.5 pass TDs vs Los Angeles Rams (+145)

Bet Gameplan: Playable to +125
• Led by Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have the league’s most efficient passing offense, averaging a 0.32 EPA per pass. The Rams have the 8th-worst pass defense, giving up 0.11 EPA per pass, making this a strong advantage for the Chiefs.
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