Best Late-Sunday Bets in NFL Week 12: Player props, spread bets and more

• Bet Seahawks QB Geno Smith o1.5 pass TDs vs Raiders: Vegas is NFL's worst pass defense in EPA; Smith over in 8/10 this season.

• Bet Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes o2.5 pass TDs vs Rams: He's over in 6/10 this season, even better than his 49.7% career mark.

• Bet Saints +8.5 at 49ers: Garoppolo's Niners are 1-8-1 as a home favorite of 6 points or more; this number should be 7/7.5.

Last updated: Nov. 27, 3:00 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 3 mins

PFF staff best bets in the late-Sunday slate in Week 12:

Martyn Carlisle: San Francisco 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell — Over 42.5 rush yards (-110) vs New Orleans Saints

Bet Gameplan: Playable to 47.5

• The Saints have given up the 4th-highest success rate to opposing running backs over the past four weeks, including letting Cam Akers run for 4.4 yards per carry, Kenyan Drake and Najee Harris rush for over 90 yards each. New Orleans now faces PFF's 4th-highest-graded rush attack over the past month, a significant step up over the Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Rams offensive lines.

• Elijah Mitchell has led the 49ers in carries in both games since he returned from injury, and the betting market still suggests he is the backup rushing option behind Christian McCaffrey. CMC will play twice as many snaps, but if Mitchell is on the field, the 49ers are running the ball.

Tej Seth: Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes — Over 2.5 pass TDs vs Los Angeles Rams (+145)

Bet Gameplan: Playable to +125

• Led by Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have the league’s most efficient passing offense, averaging a 0.32 EPA per pass. The Rams have the 8th-worst pass defense, giving up 0.11 EPA per pass, making this a strong advantage for the Chiefs.

• Among his 10 games this season, Mahomes has thrown for over 2.5 passing touchdowns six times. This is even better than his career average of 49.7%, showing that he has a tendency to throw for 3+ touchdowns more often this season.

Arjun Menon: Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith — Over 1.5 pass TDs (-135)

Bet Gameplan: Playable to -150

• Raiders pass defense arguably NFL's worst right now: They rank dead last in EPA/pass allowed, and 31st in passing success rate allowed. They’ve allowed 17 passing TDs this season (6th most), and are at a disadvantage on the outside vs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf.

• Geno Smith has been a revelation: Ranking highly in a bevy of QB metrics this season. He’s also gone over 1.5 passing TDs in 8/10 games this season and should have time to find open receivers vs a porous Raiders pass rush (27th in pressure rate).

Tommy Jurgens: New Orleans Saints +8.5 @ San Francisco 49ers

• San Francisco Fade: As a regular season home favorite, QB Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers are 6-13-1 ATS. If we zoom in a little further, we see the Niners are 1-8-1 as a home favorite of 6 points or more with Garoppolo as the QB. Admittedly, a trend itself is never a good enough reason to make a bet. It is, however, a useful signal to identify opportunities in the betting market. This record indicates that the 49ers are often overvalued at home, and the model suggests that they are being overvalued once again on Sunday.

Judah Fortgang — Los Angeles Chargers-Arizona Cardinals SGP (1564)

• Only the New York Giants and Green Bay Packers have blitzed more than the Cardinals, who have blitzed on 41% of plays.

• And when blitzed, Justin Herbert has looked Keenan Allen’s way nearly a third of the time, the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL.

• Naturally, Allen has been one of the best NFL's best receivers when Herbert has looked his way against the blitz. Still without Mike Williams, Herbert's Chargers will manage by finding Allen often against the blitz-happy Cards.