Every year, the approach towards drafting evolves. Most notably it changed in 2008 when the 1st and 2nd round running back selection approach seemed to be completely thrown to the way side. Now, it is common for as many quarterbacks and wide receivers to be selected in the first round as running backs. In fact, according to the average draft positions in 2008 and 2009, exactly 24 running backs were selected and 24 quarterbacks and wide receivers were selected within the first two rounds. So does the traditional first and second round running back approach still hold up? Or is it actually more of a risk to draft a running back?
In my analysis I took the players selected in the first and second rounds of the 2008 and 2009 drafts and compared it to the way they finished in scoring in those years. I defined a bust as a player selected in the first or second round who finished 16th or worse at their respective position. I also took injury into account as well. I defined a player as injured if the player did not play at least 75% of regular season games.
What I found
I found that a running back selected in the first or second round averages to be the 17th highest scoring running back by the end of the year. When I remove players who did not play at least 75% of the season due to injury, 1st and 2nd round running backs average to be the 15th highest scoring by the end of the year. Wide receivers averaged to be 12th in scoring and 12th non injury. Quarterbacks averaged to be 13th in scoring and 5th non injury. In total, quarterbacks and wide receivers averaged out to be 12th in scoring, compared to 17th for running backs. Removing injury, quarterbacks and wide receivers averaged to be 9th in scoring, compared to 15th for running backs.
The bust rate for running backs totals to an astounding 42%. When I remove players that were injured that number comes down to 36%. Compare that to wide receivers (29%, 25% Non injury) and quarterbacks (12.5%, 0% Non injury). In total quarterbacks and wide receivers averaged a 24% bust rate compared to 41.67% for running backs. Removing injury and the bust rate for quarterbacks and wide receivers averaged to be 17.7% compared to 36% for running backs.
Conclusion
There were 17 wide receivers and 7 quarterback selected in the first rounds the past two years. So, the bust rate for running backs will be skewed because there are slightly more running backs selected than any other position. Still, a running back is certainly not as safe investment. The second round running backs selected last year were Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, Brandon Jacobs and Brian Westbrook. In 2008, the second round picks were Larry Johnson, Ryan Grant and Maurice Jones-Drew. There were many busts among these picks. In fact 5 of the 7 second round running back the last 2 years were busts. The days of autodrafting two running backs with your first two picks are officially over.
Who to Avoid in 2010
The running back busts the past two years had some things in common. Many of the running back busts played on teams that passed more than the average team the previous year. The average team passed 56% of the time(including sacks) the past two years. The only bust whose team passed less than 56% of the time the previous year was Michael Turner(2009), Brandon Jacobs (2009) and LaDanian Tomlinson (2009). The running backs that busted and their teams passed more than the NFL average were Joseph Addai (2008), Marion Barber (2008), Larry Johnson (2008), Ryan Grant (2008), Matt Forte (2009), Steve Slaton (2009), and Brian Westbrook (2009 Injury). In summary, running backs in pass happy offenses just carry more risk. If we were to remove busts because of injury (Turner), running back by committee (Jacobs) and running backs over 30(Tomlinson) the only busts came from pass happy offenses.
Looking forward to this year, the 1st and 2nd round potential picks that had pass happy offenses in 2009 include: Frank Gore (60%), Rashard Mendenhall (58%), Steven Jackson (58%), Ryan Grant (58%), Michael Turner (57%), Jamaal Charles (57%), and Chris Wells(63%). San Francisco, Arizona, Pittsburgh and Atlanta all are expected to run more in 2010 but all come with appropriate risk until they prove that they can the run ball. Players that I am avoiding in the first and second round are Jamaal Charles, Ryan Grant and Chris Wells. I would not suggest to totally avoid Frank Gore, Steven Jackson and Rashard Mendenhall but all come with enough risk for you to think twice about drafting them.
Who To Target
Early 1st Round
Your draft position is more important than ever now. It is really advantageous to have a top draft position. If you are in the bottom of the draft order you are forced to play catch up and take a top wide receiver or quarterback and hope you hit on a risky second tier running back. Either way, I want at least one running back in the first 2 rounds. Having an early first round pick is easy. Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Ray Rice are all risk averse investments and all should be targeted in the early first round.
Mid to late 1st Round
I am targeting Michael Turner in the middle to late first round even though he doesn’t fit my formula exactly. In a lot of ways Atlanta’s pass numbers were a bit of a fluke. Losing Turner and Matt Ryan both to injurys last year led to Atlanta losing more which led to more passing. When Turner and Ryan were healthy in 2008 they were the 2nd heaviest running team in the NFL. I think Turner is a pick that comes with less risk when compared to the other running back options around his average draft position.
Late First Or Early Second Round
Potential second round running backs from run heavy teams in 2009 include DeAngelo Williams, Cedric Benson, Pierre Thomas and Ryan Mathews. DeAngelo is on a team with a great running back in Jonathan Stewart that will get many carries. Cedric Benson has the obvious suspension worries and character risk. And Ryan Matthews and Pierre Thomas both have great quarterbacks that could be depended on in the clutch. The player in the second tier that seems to fit most of the criteria that I am looking for is Shonn Greene. Shonn plays on a Jets team that is one of the least passing teams in the league. Shonn is widely talked about as being the main man this year and does not have much of a threat behind him to steal carries. Much has been made about Shonn’s inability to catch passes and should be adjusted for in PPR leagues. However, even in PPR leagues Shonn has less risk associated with him than many other running backs. Shonn doesn’t have quite the upside of a Chris Johnson because of his limited pass catching, but he very well could lead many teams to championships just as Chris Johnson did in 2009.
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