After having 10 days to think about their woeful performance on Thursday Night Football last week, the Panthers get to make the short trip to Atlanta and take on the undefeated Falcons. These two teams head into this NFC South battle coming off totally different Week 3 efforts.
Carolina was flat and listless at home last week in front of a national audience. They welcomed the world champion Giants and had an opportunity to make a second statement in five days that they were a true contender. Instead, they put in a second poor performance of the season, and have many doubting their legitimacy. It won’t get any easier this week, but they will have yet another opportunity to make a statement. If they can go on the road and beat the undefeated Falcons, last Thursday will be pushed to the back of the mind in a ‘what have you done for me lately' league.
On the contrary, Atlanta made the cross-country road trip to San Diego in Week 3 and eased to a comfortable victory over the Chargers. The Falcons methodically moved the ball on offense–and have scored no less than 27 points in three weeks of games– en route to a 3-0 start. If the Falcons want to stay unbeaten they will need to tame a Carolina team that should be fired up after an embarrassing loss. Can Matty Ice stay red hot? That is one of the three areas of focus in this NFC South game.
Matt Ryan vs. Panthers Secondary
Through the first three weeks Matt Ryan is first in our own adjusted QB Rating at 105.48, and he sports an impressive +15.9 overall grade. Ryan has been surgeon-like with precision, and has carved up opposing defenses. However, he throws the ball deep very infrequently, and has completed only one pass that traveled more than 20 yards in the air all season–although he has attempted only five such passes. He could be poised for another big game this week if the Panthers' secondary plays anywhere near the way they did last Thursday. Eli Manning picked apart the Panthers' pass defense.
Through three weeks, the Panthers have the lowest grade in team pass coverage( -19.4), which doesn’t bode well when you have to face the top ranked passer. Chris Gamble (-1.1), Josh Norman (-2.7), Charles Godfrey (-4.1) and Haruki Nakamura (-1.6) will all need to be drastically better this week in coverage if the Panthers have any chance to come out of Atlanta with a win. It certainly won’t be easy though, Ryan has quite the duo of receivers to throw to in Roddy White (+7.5) and Julio Jones (+2.2). It sure looks like another long game for the Panthers’ defensive backs.
Panthers Run Game vs. Falcons Front Seven
The best way for the Panthers to slow down the Atlanta offense is simply to keep them off the field. Carolina has the ability to run the ball with Cam Newton (+1.4) and the run option. With Jonathan Stewart expected to return this week, all three running backs will be involved but the extent to which they have missed Stewart’s presence in two of their opening three games has been surprising. While he is their leading ball carrier, DeAngelo Williams simply hasn’t shown the spark that Stewart can bring and on 20 more carries has only forced one more missed tackle than Stewart forced on 11 carries in his solitary display this season. The read option is a devastating weapon, and the Panthers will look for the return of Stewart to really spark their ground game.
The Falcons defense can be run on as we saw in Week 2, when Willis McGahee gashed them. All four starters on the defensive line have negative run defense grades. They will need to be much better this week, especially in the middle where Carolina runs the ball most. Defensive tackles Jonathan Babineaux (-6.6 run defense) and Peria Jerry (-2.0 run defense) will need to be far better than they have been so far this season to slow down the Panthers’ ground attack.
Panthers Pass Rush vs. Falcons Offensive Line
Other than playing keep-away, the next best way to slow down the Falcons' passing attack is to pressure Ryan. When under pressure Ryan’s completion percentage drops from 77.2% to 57.1%. The issue for the Panthers is where that pressure will come from. Defensive end Charles Johnson is off to a decent start, with a pass rush grade of +1.1, but he will need to surpass that number this week to have a true impact. His opponent this week is Atlanta right tackle Tyson Clabo, who is fresh off a very impressive Week 3 and has a +5.9 overall grade on the season, continuing the fine form he has shown in recent seasons. In two games against Atlanta last season, Johnson collected eight quarterback pressures (including two sacks) on 64 pass rushes. However, while he is capable of having an impact against the Falcons, he is unlikely to disrupt Ryan one-handed.
The Panthers will then need help from elsewhere, and while Frank Alexander has impressed as a rotational defender (+2.2 pass rush), second-year defensive end Greg Hardy has failed to build on the six hurries that he recorded in the Panthers’ season opener. The Falcons’ left tackle Sam Baker is off to a solid start to the 2012 season, but he has a track record of weakness in his pass protection. If the Panthers are to have a chance to slow down the Falcons’ passing game they really need Hardy, Johnson and the rest of the pass rush to knock off their early season rush and bring their ‘A' game to Atlanta this Sunday.
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