I’m starting to think that I should rename this annual study the ‘Alex Smith Index’.
Smith, of course, is the poster boy for rarely throwing deep balls. As conservative as NFL quarterbacks come, Smith’s average depth of target (aDOT) was 6.0 this past season. That’s one full yard per throw behind Robert Griffin III for lowest in the league. Smith’s marks of 6.9 in 2013 and 7.7 in 2014 were lowest and second lowest (Christian Ponder), respectively.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that shorter passes are easier to complete, which explains why Smith often ranks so highly in completion percentage each year. The question is – how much of an impact does depth actually have? To answer that question, I went play by play and adjusted each quarterback’s completion percentage based on the distance of his throws. Quarterbacks who usually throw a lot of screens and short passes will be punished. Those who aren’t afraid to chuck it deep will be rewarded.
To accomplish this, we’re using a pair of statistics. One is aDOT and the other is an adjusted version of completion percentage (aC%)*.
*aC% = (Completions + Drops – NFL average drop rate) / (Pass Attempts – Spikes – Throwaways – Batted Balls – Balls disrupted by a QB hit)
Note that quarterbacks who attempted a minimum of 100 passes (including playoffs) are included and throws with depths shorter than negative-9 yards and ones longer than 55 yards are removed. Why? Although I’m using a massive play-by-play sample that covers eight years of NFL action, there remain distances without an ideal sample size. For what it’s worth, only 117 (or 0.087 percent) of 135,193 aimed throws have been eliminated as a result of this tweak.
I’ll be referring to “aC%” throughout this piece. Don’t be confused by it. Remember, it’s just an adjusted version of completion percentage that removes wasted throws and normalizes drops.
The Good
Our first chart shows the top-10 quarterbacks in terms of their actual aC% exceeding their expected.
| Rk | Quarterback | Aimed | aDOT | Actual aC% | Expected aC% | +/- |
| 1 | Drew Brees | 607 | 8.1 | 74% | 67% | 7.1% |
| 2 | Tony Romo | 467 | 9.5 | 69% | 65% | 4.1% |
| 3 | Philip Rivers | 532 | 9.0 | 69% | 65% | 4.0% |
| 4 | Carson Palmer | 209 | 9.2 | 69% | 65% | 3.6% |
| 5 | Teddy Bridgewater | 362 | 7.9 | 71% | 67% | 3.6% |
| 6 | Matt Ryan | 588 | 8.2 | 70% | 66% | 3.5% |
| 7 | Ben Roethlisberger | 623 | 9.1 | 69% | 65% | 3.4% |
| 8 | Alex D. Smith | 421 | 6.0 | 73% | 70% | 3.3% |
| 9 | Russell Wilson | 469 | 9.0 | 68% | 65% | 3.3% |
| 10 | Tom Brady | 671 | 8.3 | 69% | 66% | 2.6% |
Drew Brees (+7.1 percent) was easily the league’s top quarterback in this department during the 2014 regular season. Brees (69.2 percent) trailed only Tony Romo (69.7 percent) in straight-up completion percentage, but Romo benefited from a low drop rate and had significantly fewer “unaimed” throws. Brees’ +7.7 percent is the highest we’ve seen from him in eight years of this study, but he’s been no worse than +2.3 percent in a given year. It’s far from a secret, but Brees is arguably the league’s most-efficient passer.
Teddy Bridgewater (+3.6 percent) was clearly the top rookie quarterback of 2014 and this study just adds to his intrigue. Bridgewater sported the league’s sixth-lowest aDOT (7.9), but made up for the conservative play with the fourth-best aC% (71 percent). The 22 year old will be a major breakout candidate in 2015.
Aforementioned Smith (+3.3 percent) sits seventh in the category this season after failing to crack the top-25 in 2013. As a result of his absurdly-low aDOT, Smith’s expected aC% of 70 percent was easily highest in the league. He took advantage of the “easier” throws, finishing second to only Brees with a 73 percent actual aC%. Smith isn’t nearly as good as many of the names on this list, but he’s thrived in his conservative/game-manager role.
The Bad
| Rk | Quarterback | Aimed | aDOT | Actual aC% | Expected aC% | +/- |
| 1 | Ryan Lindley | 116 | 12.3 | 50% | 60% | -10.0% |
| 2 | E.J. Manuel | 122 | 7.6 | 62% | 67% | -5.7% |
| 3 | Brian Hoyer | 409 | 10.8 | 58% | 63% | -4.9% |
| 4 | Blake Bortles | 444 | 7.4 | 64% | 68% | -4.1% |
| 5 | Derek Carr | 546 | 8.5 | 63% | 66% | -3.4% |
| 6 | Cam Newton | 492 | 9.8 | 61% | 64% | -2.7% |
| 7 | Michael Vick | 110 | 9.9 | 63% | 65% | -2.6% |
| 8 | Zach Mettenberger | 168 | 9.1 | 62% | 64% | -2.4% |
| 9 | Jake Locker | 141 | 10.1 | 61% | 63% | -2.3% |
| 10 | Drew Stanton | 222 | 11.7 | 60% | 61% | -1.6% |
I ran this study back in 2013 and Ryan Lindley (-8.5 percent) finished dead last in the category. Fast forward two years and Lindley (-10 percent) is back in the basement. Certainly one of the worst quarterbacks to make multiple starts over the past decade, Lindley wasn’t afraid to chuck it deep (12.3 aDOT), which allowed him some leeway in terms of expected aC% (60 percent). Of course, he completed only half of his passes, which was worst in the league by eight percentage points. Lindley is unlikely to take another snap in the NFL.
A trio of rookies shows up on our list. Blake Bortles (-4.1 percent), Derek Carr (-3.4 percent) and Zach Mettenberger (-2.4 percent) didn’t exactly have a great supporting cast, but each struggled in the efficiency department. Bortles had the best aC% of the trio, but was also easily the most conservative. With what is shaping up to be one of the league’s top/deepest wide receiver units at his disposal in 2015, he’ll need to be much better as a sophomore.
Yes, Johnny Manziel was horrific when called upon as a rookie, but Brian Hoyer (-4.9 percent) is obviously not the answer in Cleveland. Hoyer completed 55 percent of his throws, which was worst among 30 passers who attempted at least 300 aimed throws.
Eight Years Later
There are 40 passers who have 1,000 aimed throws under their belt since I started this study in 2007.
Aaron Rodgers (+5.8 percent) is tops in the category during that span. Brees (+4.9 percent), Kurt Warner (+4.1 percent), Peyton Manning (+3.9 percent) and Philip Rivers (+3.8 percent) round out the top-five.
On the other hand, Derek Anderson (-4.8 percent) is worst in the category since 2007. He’s followed closely by Marc Bulger (-4.7 percent), Mark Sanchez (-4.2 percent), Josh Freeman (-2.5 percent) and Matt Hasselbeck (-2.3 percent).
The complete 2014 rundown
| Rk | Quarterback | Aimed | aDOT | Actual aC% | Expected aC% | +/- |
| 1 | Drew Brees | 607 | 8.1 | 74% | 67% | 7.1% |
| 2 | Tony Romo | 467 | 9.5 | 69% | 65% | 4.1% |
| 3 | Philip Rivers | 532 | 9.0 | 69% | 65% | 4.0% |
| 4 | Carson Palmer | 209 | 9.2 | 69% | 65% | 3.6% |
| 5 | Teddy Bridgewater | 362 | 7.9 | 71% | 67% | 3.6% |
| 6 | Matt Ryan | 588 | 8.2 | 70% | 66% | 3.5% |
| 7 | Ben Roethlisberger | 623 | 9.1 | 69% | 65% | 3.4% |
| 8 | Alex D. Smith | 421 | 6.0 | 73% | 70% | 3.3% |
| 9 | Russell Wilson | 469 | 9.0 | 68% | 65% | 3.3% |
| 10 | Tom Brady | 671 | 8.3 | 69% | 66% | 2.6% |
| 11 | Ryan Tannehill | 555 | 8.2 | 69% | 67% | 2.6% |
| 12 | Aaron Rodgers | 559 | 8.6 | 69% | 66% | 2.5% |
| 13 | Kirk Cousins | 192 | 9.0 | 68% | 66% | 2.3% |
| 14 | Robert Griffin III | 199 | 7.0 | 72% | 70% | 2.2% |
| 15 | Joe Flacco | 581 | 9.2 | 67% | 66% | 1.8% |
| 16 | Colin Kaepernick | 445 | 9.5 | 66% | 64% | 1.6% |
| 17 | Andrew Luck | 682 | 9.2 | 66% | 65% | 1.5% |
| 18 | Shaun Hill | 211 | 8.3 | 68% | 67% | 1.3% |
| 19 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 294 | 9.1 | 66% | 65% | 1.2% |
| 20 | Eli Manning | 564 | 9.2 | 66% | 65% | 1.1% |
| 21 | Peyton Manning | 623 | 9.0 | 66% | 65% | 0.7% |
| 22 | Jay Cutler | 529 | 7.7 | 68% | 68% | 0.4% |
| 23 | Kyle Orton | 415 | 7.5 | 68% | 68% | 0.2% |
| 24 | Geno Smith | 329 | 8.6 | 66% | 66% | 0.2% |
| 25 | Colt McCoy | 124 | 7.3 | 69% | 68% | 0.1% |
| 26 | Austin Davis | 264 | 8.7 | 66% | 66% | 0.0% |
| 27 | Mike Glennon | 188 | 11.6 | 61% | 61% | -0.3% |
| 28 | Andy Dalton | 482 | 8.1 | 66% | 67% | -0.8% |
| 29 | Charlie Whitehurst | 163 | 10.7 | 62% | 62% | -0.8% |
| 30 | Mark Sanchez | 301 | 8.8 | 65% | 66% | -1.0% |
| 31 | Nick Foles | 285 | 10.3 | 62% | 64% | -1.3% |
| 32 | Matthew Stafford | 593 | 8.2 | 66% | 67% | -1.3% |
| 33 | Josh McCown | 300 | 10.7 | 61% | 63% | -1.5% |
| 34 | Drew Stanton | 222 | 11.7 | 60% | 61% | -1.6% |
| 35 | Jake Locker | 141 | 10.1 | 61% | 63% | -2.3% |
| 36 | Zach Mettenberger | 168 | 9.1 | 62% | 64% | -2.4% |
| 37 | Michael Vick | 110 | 9.9 | 63% | 65% | -2.6% |
| 38 | Cam Newton | 492 | 9.8 | 61% | 64% | -2.7% |
| 39 | Derek Carr | 546 | 8.5 | 63% | 66% | -3.4% |
| 40 | Blake Bortles | 444 | 7.4 | 64% | 68% | -4.1% |
| 41 | Brian Hoyer | 409 | 10.8 | 58% | 63% | -4.9% |
| 42 | E.J. Manuel | 122 | 7.6 | 62% | 67% | -5.7% |
| 43 | Ryan Lindley | 116 | 12.3 | 50% | 60% | -10.0% |
Follow Mike Clay on Twitter: @MikeClayNFL
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