2010 Free Agency: Defensive Ends

The rules of the uncapped year have prevented some truly top end talent from reaching the open market this off-season, but not at every position. Pro Football Focus continues its Free Agency preview with Ben Stockwell looking at the top potential Free Agent Defensive Ends available this spring …
Where other positions have been robbed of prime free agent talent this off-season, Defensive End is host to a veritable feast of top end talent. That’s not to say that the talent pool is completely untouched with players such as Ray Edwards, Darryl Tapp and Marcus Spears still Restricted Free Agents and thus unlikely to command the interest they would do as Unrestricted Free Agents. However, unlike other positions we do have some real positives to focus on with this Free Agent class, so let’s take a look at probably the most talented positional group to hit the open market this off season.

1. Julius Peppers
Peppers is the marquee Unrestricted Free Agent of this off-season and is one of the few players who might attract and be worth the bank breaking multi-year offer that we’re so used to seeing on the opening days of the Free Agency. He was kept off the open market last season by a Franchise Tag of over $16million, an amount the Panthers are unlikely to want to top this season. Peppers’ incredible talent is without question where he is capable of outstanding games such as his performance against the Vikings in week 15 (1 sack, 2 hits, 6 pressures). Additionally he is capable of consistent strong performances (after a poor showing against Miami in week 11 he closed the season with 5 good games out of 6) and can make big plays both in the pass rush as well as feeling out screens to make interceptions (2 interceptions from screen passes this season). The downside is that he is also capable of being completely invisible either for stretches of games or for entire games (week 3 against Dallas he was completely dominated and taken out of the game in run & pass). That however is a minor downside on what Peppers brings most downs & most games.
2. Aaron Kampman
Kampman had his share of negative press in transitioning to a 3-4 Outside Linebacker, but at Pro Football Focus we never quite shared the sentiment that he wasn’t up to scratch here. Certainly he didn’t match his performances or impact from the Defensive End spot in a 4-3 but he was still a more than solid contributor for Green Bay until his injury in week 11. He certainly out-performed his injury replacement, Brad Jones, who many are touting as an upgrade over Kampman. Now that’s not to say Kampman should and will stay in Green Bay since the Packers are committed to the 3-4. Kampman holds more value to a 4-3 team so Kampman is likely to be moving on to pastures new as teams looking for proven pass rush look his way. Prior to his injury Kampman contributed consistent pass rush (averaged 3 total pressures per game – 4 sacks, 12 hits, 11 pressures in 9 games) and aside from 2 very poor games (at St Louis & Cleveland) strong run defence as well. Translating that form back to 4-3 End (assuming he recovers fully from his injury) shouldn’t prove problematic given his previous experience and Kampman should be ready to be an impact player off the edge again for a new team.
3. Richard Seymour
In the short term the Patriots may have lived to regret trading Seymour. Certainly a 1st rounder for an upcoming Free Agent was too good to pass up when planning for the long term, but the Patriots were caught short at times with a lack of bodies on the D-line and Seymour would certainly have helped on that front. Seymour was started and deployed predominantly at Right Defensive End in the Raiders’ rather bland 4-3 defence, and his pass rushing was underwhelming aside from two very good games. Seymour made a big bang with his debut against San Diego (2 sacks & 3 hits) and had an even bigger game against the Texans in week 6 (2 sacks, 2 hits, 4 pressures), but aside from that he wasn’t a consistent threat to Quarterbacks. On the flip side, his run defence (aside from one poor game against the Giants in week 5) was solid or better all season. The Raiders may have missed a trick by not utilising Seymour in a more versatile role but then there’s also the equal chance that Seymour isn’t the player he once was nor is he suited to such a vanilla scheme, particularly a role predominantly at 4-3 End. Seymour’s run D this season suggests he has something to offer still, however the evidence from his pass rushing would suggest that isn’t as a 4-3 End, if it ever was. 3-4 teams should be eager to get Seymour on board if the Raiders don’t use the Franchise Tag on him.
4. Dwan Edwards
Not too long ago Dwan Edwards was being written off as a bust in Baltimore and while perhaps not quite what you would hope of from a 2nd round pick, over the course of his career Edwards has become one of the best run defending Defensive Ends in the entire league. Edwards first started to see success in Rex Ryan’s scheme that has also produced fine performances from Justin Bannan in Baltimore and this season from Mike Devito in New York with the Jets which does beg the question whether these players are system players or strong players in their own right? Edwards won’t contribute as a pass rusher, that’s a given, but his run defence in a 3-4 or a variable front scheme like that which Rex Ryan has implemented in Baltimore and New York would allow Edwards to continue his high level of run defence if he does leave the Ravens. Be it in Baltimore (as the Ravens look to move on from the ageing Trevor Pryce) or forging a new path as a 3-4 End, Edwards should have plenty of suitors for a starting position this off-season.
5. Adewale Ogunleye
Ogunleye’s season was based almost entirely on feast or famine in 2009. He had a series of 7 games between weeks 2 & 12 that ranged from poor to as bad/ ineffective a game as you’re likely to see a Defensive End play (the pick of these coming against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati & Minnesota). But then there were still some quality performances from Ogunleye last season; a strong opening at Green Bay (2 sacks, 3 hits, 2 pressures), a strong pass rushing display at Seattle (1 hit, 6 pressures) and a rare strong all round performance at San Francisco (4 stops in the run game and 5 pressures in the pass rush). It is quite probably notable that many of Ogunleye’s better performances came against some fairly shoddy Right Tackles (Allen Barbre, Levi Brown, and Adam Snyder) which will (rightfully) cause some concerns that against better opponents he’s found wanting. Indeed his inability to play to even an average level on a consistent basis may spell the end of Ogunleye’s days as a starter. Someone may get carried away by his better performances enough to cave to his likely demands, but the time may have come for Ogunleye to turn his hand to being a bit part player.
Wildcard – Kyle Vanden Bosch
There has been much talk this year of Kyle Vanden Bosch’s poor performance in his first season without the presence of Albert Haynesworth inside, however the question should be raised of how good he was last year with Haynesworth there. Further to that, whilst the Titans didn’t replace Haynesworth’s run defence this season, Tony Brown stepped up and proved to be a match for Haynesworth as a pass rusher so Vanden Bosch wasn’t short changed on help from the Titans’ interior pass rush. So is Vanden Bosch actually the player he was made out to be? He’s got an excellent motor but his output for the last 2 seasons, with similar help from the interior, has too often been nothing better than average. Former Defensive Co-ordinator Jim Schwartz will probably be in search of some help at Defensive End, so there’s likely to b a market for Vanden Bosch, but anyone hoping for great things from him need only look his performances in the last 2 seasons to realise they’re getting nothing more than an average Defensive End.
Diamond in the Rough – Jimmy Wilkerson
Wilkerson’s knee injury that he picked up in week 16 this season could well mean he’ll miss the start of the 2010 season, but when he returns he could prove to be a budget pick up for a 4-3 team. 2009 was a struggle for Wilkerson even before his injury as he struggled to cope with a switch to permanently starting at Left Defensive End. A terrible game in run defence against the Panthers (week 6) blighted an otherwise solid season of run defence though the pass rush simply wasn’t there on a consistent basis (only stepping up with a 3 sack performance in week 5 against the Eagles). Clearly coming off an injury after an underwhelming season Wilkerson isn’t going to get many looks as a starter, however his 2008 season where he was switching between Defensive Tackle & Defensive End in a backup role for the Buccaneers saw an entirely different player. Again his run defence was nothing better than average blighted by a few poor games but his pass rush coming from different spots on the defensive line was much stronger and more consistent. Wilkerson will be late on the market but if he recovers on or slightly ahead of schedule then a team that finds themselves short on the Defensive Line early in the season could see him as a solid addition to their rotation.
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