• Bet Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier o33.5 rush yards: Slightly-below-average Carolina run ‘D' (19th in EPA/rush, 17th in success rate) was shredded by Joe Mixon in Week 9; Allgeier has at least 34 yards in six straight games.
• Bet Falcons -2.5: PFF spread modeling points to this being a one-sided affair with Atlanta providing value on both the spread and moneyline.
Last updated: Nov. 10, 5:00 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 2 mins
Ben Brown: Falcons -2.5 (-107)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -2.5
• Spread modeling points to this being a one-sided affair with Atlanta providing value on both the spread and moneyline. Carolina has popped in a couple games since firing Matt Rhule, most recently in the overtime matchup against this Falcons squad, which is a big reason we are seeing such a tight spread. Given the state of their QB situation, and a short week impacting any sort of preparation, buying into a Falcons' team that’s not in a complete teardown to continue overachieving in an impressive season is the correct spot to target on Thursday night.
Arjun Menon: Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier — Over 33.5 rush yards (-115)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to 35.5
PFF Greenline top play: Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson — Over 7.5 receiving yards (-110)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -125
• Admittedly, Ben's terrific work analyzing player-performance prop categories at the midseason mark, revealing lowly-yardage totals frequently going under, makes us a bit wary here. Still, Patterson is a worthwhile exception, clearing this mark in 14/21 games with the Falcons. Add in the dicey weather forecast, and Patterson should be in line for at least a high-percentage target or two. Of course, all he needs is one to get us where we need to go. PFF Greenline finds a 6.9% edge on Patterson finishing with at least eight receiving yards.
A $20 BET ON A THREE-LEG PARLAY WITH FALCONS -2.5, ALLGEIER 35+ RUSH YARDS, PATTERSON 12+ RECEIVING YARDS WOULD NET $160 AT BETMGM.
PFF staff best bets are 78-65-1 entering Week 10.