Betting News & Analysis

Thursday Night Football Staff Picks: Player props, spread bets and more

Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers defensive end Brian Burns (53) reacts after sacking Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) (not pictured) in the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

• Bet Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier o33.5 rush yards: Slightly-below-average Carolina run ‘D' (19th in EPA/rush, 17th in success rate) was shredded by Joe Mixon in Week 9; Allgeier has at least 34 yards in six straight games.

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• Bet Falcons -2.5: PFF spread modeling points to this being a one-sided affair with Atlanta providing value on both the spread and moneyline.

Last updated: Nov. 10, 5:00 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 2 mins


Here are PFF staff best bets in Atlanta FalconsCarolina Panthers to kick off Week 10 on “Thursday Night Football:”

Ben Brown: Falcons -2.5 (-107)

Bet Gameplan: Playable to -2.5

• Spread modeling points to this being a one-sided affair with Atlanta providing value on both the spread and moneyline. Carolina has popped in a couple games since firing Matt Rhule, most recently in the overtime matchup against this Falcons squad, which is a big reason we are seeing such a tight spread. Given the state of their QB situation, and a short week impacting any sort of preparation, buying into a Falcons' team that’s not in a complete teardown to continue overachieving in an impressive season is the correct spot to target on Thursday night.

Arjun Menon: Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier — Over 33.5 rush yards (-115)

Bet Gameplan: Playable to 35.5
• Allgeier has rushed for 34 or more yards in 6 straight, logging 10+ carries in all but one game. The weather forecast is pretty bad for passing conditions, so the Falcons will likely continue their heavy dose of runs in Carolina tonight. The Panthers' run defense is slightly below average this year when looking at their ranks in EPA/rush (17th) and rushing success rate allowed (19th). Carolina was absolutely shredded on the ground last Sunday by Joe Mixon.

PFF Greenline top play: Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson — Over 7.5 receiving yards (-110)

Bet Gameplan: Playable to -125

• Admittedly, Ben's terrific work analyzing player-performance prop categories at the midseason mark, revealing lowly-yardage totals frequently going under, makes us a bit wary here. Still, Patterson is a worthwhile exception, clearing this mark in 14/21 games with the Falcons. Add in the dicey weather forecast, and Patterson should be in line for at least a high-percentage target or two. Of course, all he needs is one to get us where we need to go. PFF Greenline finds a 6.9% edge on Patterson finishing with at least eight receiving yards.

A $20 BET ON A THREE-LEG PARLAY WITH FALCONS -2.5, ALLGEIER 35+ RUSH YARDS, PATTERSON 12+ RECEIVING YARDS WOULD NET $160 AT BETMGM.


PFF staff best bets are 78-65-1 entering Week 10.

 

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