If you’re a football geek like us here at PFF, you likely know that the NFL is now releasing snap data as part of the information they compile in their gamebooks after every game.
It’s certainly interesting stuff, but it’s not enough for PFF. What good are the number of snaps if you don’t know what plays it was? Was a receiver taken out on running downs or was he just being spelled? As always, we want more information, more detail, and aren’t happy until we get it. PFF has been compiling our own, super-accurate snap and player participation data for years.
We have a whole world of information beyond simple percentages of snaps played, so we’re going to have a look at some of the more interesting story lines in the league using our numbers.
Wes Welker
Lots of people have been pointing out the low number of snaps that Wes Welker played in the New England opener and asking whether it means he is being phased out as his contract issue drags on. Welker has been a fantastic servant to the Patriots, but can they afford to pay him big money especially when they seem to have a readymade replacement in Julian Edelman waiting in the wings?
Including penalties, the Patriots ran 67 plays on offense against Tennessee. Wes Welker played 42 of them, or 63%. That seems like a worryingly low figure, but we need to dig deeper to understand what it really means. Start by ignoring five of those snaps because they came on the final drive with the Patriots chewing clock. Some starters were still out there, but guys like Matt Slater and Brandon Bolden were getting snaps on that drive, so it isn’t a reflection of Welker. Ignoring those snaps actually increases the percentage of meaningful snaps Welker played to 68%.
Josh McDaniels claimed that Welker’s snap total is explained simply by a game-specific plan for the Titans that didn’t call for him to be on the field for some plays, and to an extent that seems legitimate. Nine of the snaps Welker missed were in heavy formations that featured two or more tight ends and an extra blocker, but just a single receiver. Welker is far from the traditional split end, and wouldn’t be expected to be the primary receiver in these formations, and only once was Edelman preferred to Welker in this type of single-wide set.
In formations that featured multiple receivers, there were 11 snaps in which Welker was not on the field but Edelman was, with four of them coming in one drive in which the Patriots were in hurry-up mode in the first quarter. Indeed, if you look at the snaps that Welker missed because Edelman was preferred to him it works out at 16% of offensive snaps. Welker averaged 11% of snaps off the field in 2011, and well over 20% in both 2009 and 2010. Edelman might be the player picking up the snaps that Welker is spending off the field, but there is nothing to suggest that spending those snaps off the field is unusual for him.
The bottom line is that the number being thrown around might look alarming but it is not out of place over Welker’s time in New England, and I wouldn’t expect to see him marginalized in that offense.
Percy Harvin
This offseason the Vikings experienced some Percy Harvin drama that didn’t have anything to do with migraines or money, or off-the-field problems… Harvin was unhappy about his role in the offense. He felt that as arguably their biggest playmaker (even with a healthy Adrian Peterson), he should be on the field as much as possible and fed the football. When he was on the field last season he averaged 2.5 yards for every pass pattern he ran, but he kept being removed.
He played just 58% of the Vikings' offensive snaps. Only once did he play more than 80% and that came in the final game of the season. Against Jacksonville in their opening game, Minnesota looked like they took his complaints to heart, and they made a point of keeping him on the field more than usual. He played 80% of Minnesota's offensive snaps, and of the snaps he was on the field for he was either running a route or running the football on 64%. The Vikings are a better offensive football team when he is on the field, so they would be well served to persevere with this level of involvement for Harvin.
Michael Turner
Apparently Michael Turner was blamed for the problems in the Atlanta running game last season. For my money he ran as he has always done in Atlanta, except the blocking in front of him was noticeably poorer. It doesn’t seem like the Falcons are buying that explanation, and they want to get Jacquizz Rodgers more involved in the offense. In order to do that, however, they need to mix up how they use both backs, otherwise they tip off what the play will be by which back is in the game.
Last season Rodgers played 344 snaps, but 74% of them were pass plays. Despite playing nearly 300 fewer snaps than Turner, Rodgers played only 26 fewer passing plays because Turner ran the ball more than half the time he was in the game. Against Kansas City, Turner played on 46% of the snaps, which is only about 5% fewer than he has averaged over the past couple of seasons, but he only ran the ball 11 times, or 42% of those snaps. Rodgers has had his playing time increased, and was on the field only one snap less than Turner, but the Falcons are now sharing the workload much more evenly between the two backs, and no longer allow defenses to know whether it is a run or a pass simply by looking at the running back. Turner might not play significantly less in 2011, but he will carry the ball far less as Atlanta shares the work more evenly.
Other NFL Stories in PFF Snap Numbers
• Felix Jones saw just 12 snaps, and 10 of them were passing plays. He was targeted twice.
• Brian Urlacher played less than 50% of the Bears' snaps against the Colts. He left the game after Chicago's first defensive series of the third quarter and was rested for the remainder of the game that Chicago had in hand. It was just as well, because he played every snap on defense against the Packers.
• Donald Driver played just three snaps in Green Bay's opener, but saw a dozen against the Bears. Not a bad guy to have warming the bench.
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