It's Tuesday again, and this is the place where you'll find out about under-owned players and the week's hottest pickups. If you're juggling defenses based on the matchups, I have a few ideas for you. We'll even look ahead to predict the popular additions for future weeks before you have to spend a waiver pick on them. Within each section the players are listed in the order that I'd pick them up.
Notes: Scoring is standard non-PPR. Ownership percentages are based on Yahoo leagues as of Tuesday morning at 12:45 am Eastern Time. FAAB values are listed as a percentage of your season budget and are based on a standard, 12-team league with 15 roster spots. Use my values as a starting point, and adjust them to fit your league size and the tendencies of your competitors. If a player does not have a FAAB value, it means that I'm recommending that you pick him up as a free agent after waivers clear. In deeper leagues, you may have to place a small bid on these players.
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Under-Owned
These players are already on most fantasy radars, but they need to be owned in significantly more leagues. Either due to impressive performances or increased opportunities, the values of these players are on the rise. If your league is small, has shallow benches, or is filled with deadbeat managers, you might be lucky enough to stumble across one of these players on your waiver wire.
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Brian Hartline (MIA – WR): 25% Owned, 13% of FAAB
Two weeks ago when I mentioned Hartline in the Hot Pickups section, he was only 4% owned. His ownership percentage has risen since then, but after an insane performance against a tough Cardinals defense, he should be owned in a ton more than a quarter of Yahoo leagues. His 12 catches, 253 yards, and a touchdown on 19 targets will be the high point of his fantasy season, but as the Dolphins' deep threat, Hartline still has a few more big days ahead.
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James Jones (GB – WR): 32% Owned, 11% of FAAB
Jones has been in the Hot Pickups section before, and his value is intimately tied to Greg Jennings' health. Jennings left the game early on Sunday after re-aggravating a groin injury that has plagued him for the past month. Jones took over and scored two touchdowns on five catches for 56 yards. As long as Jennings isn't 100%, Jones needs to be in your lineup.
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Hot Pickups
Before this week's games, these players were either on the fringe of fantasy relevance or were completely off of the radar. They should be the hottest additions of the week.
Jackie Battle (SD – RB): 22% Owned, 14% of FAAB
The negative buzz from the Chargers' organization surrounding Ryan Mathews' fumbling problems grew worse throughout last week. To hammer their point home, they started the mediocre Battle over Mathews and gave Battle all of the red zone carries. Battle won't keep the starting job for long, but his 20-point fantasy day has earned him a role similar to the flex-worthy one that Mike Tolbert held a year ago.
Battle isn't nearly as talented as Mathews — or even Tolbert for that matter — but he'll still have enough opportunities to be useful. If Mathews lives up to his injury-prone reputation, Battle could step up to deliver a couple of low-end RB2 games as the Chargers' fill-in starter.
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Brandon Bolden (NE – RB): 9% Owned, 12% of FAAB
Stevan Ridley had the better fantasy day, scoring two touchdowns, but Bolden's 148 total yards and a touchdown on 8.6 yards per carry was eye-popping. The Patriots' run game dominated the Bills in the second half.
It seems clear that Bolden is the top New England running back to own behind Ridley. While it may be tough to know when to start Bolden, his upside is hard to ignore. He could be the new focal point of this high-scoring offense later in the year or would become a low-end RB2 if Ridley misses time.
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Andre Roberts (ARI – WR): 14% Owned, 6% of FAAB
After a 118-yard, two-touchdown game, Roberts has four touchdowns in as many games and more fantasy points than Larry Fitzgerald. The Cardinals' offense has struggled at times, and Michael Floyd is breathing down his neck, but Roberts still needs to be owned as a critical bye-week fill-in. When defenses throw everything they have at stopping Fitzgerald, Roberts is the one who makes them pay for it.
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Domenik Hixon (NYG – WR): 4% Owned, 5% of FAAB
With Hakeem Nicks sidelined again, Hixon pushed aside last week's waiver-wire darling, Ramses Barden, to reclaim his spot as the number three receiver on the Giants' depth chart. Hixon caught six passes on 11 targets for 114 yards on Sunday night, and he's obviously the receiver you want in your lineup going forward if Nicks misses more time.
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Scott Chandler (BUF – TE): 29% Owned, 4% of FAAB
The magic number for Chandler is four. He has four touchdowns in four games and is averaging 44 yards per game.
His two-touchdown, 62-yard performance this week was only a yard shy of his career best fantasy day. However, with so many other backup fantasy tight ends emerging, I can't recommend spending much on Chandler unless all of the following players are already taken: Dennis Pitta, Martellus Bennett, Owen Daniels, Greg Olsen, Kyle Rudolph, and Heath Miller.
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Free Agents: I'd wait for these guys to clear waivers before picking them up. A couple of them are only useful as one-week fill-ins if the starters ahead of them miss this week. The others are bench fodder for deeper leagues.
LaGarrette Blount (TB – RB)
Donald Jones (BUF – WR)
Devone Bess (MIA – WR)
Chaz Schilens (NYJ – WR)
Matt Hasselbeck (TEN – QB)
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Juggling Defenses
Juggling team defenses from the waiver wire can be equivalent to starting the same top-10 D/ST every week. I rarely roster more than one defense at a time, and I don't usually spend FAAB dollars to pick one up.
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Minnesota Vikings: 10% Owned
After scoring 23 and 15 fantasy points over the past two weeks in Yahoo standard scoring, the Vikings are the fourth-ranked D/ST. They play Tennessee this week, and with Jake Locker and Kenny Britt battling injuries, Minnesota will successfully focus their efforts on shutting down Chris Johnson in the Metrodome.
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Cincinnati Bengals: 26% Owned
The Miami Dolphins have yielded double-digit fantasy points to opposing defenses in three of their four games and travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals' league-leading 17 sacks.
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Miami Dolphins: 9% Owned
I don't feel great about this pick, but the pickens are a little slim this week. Four teams are on the bye and 13 others are more than 60% owned. The Bengals have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing defenses, and the Dolphins have held their opponents to 18 points per game in regulation over the past three weeks.
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Looking Ahead
Take a hard look at your bench. I bet you have at least one guy sitting there with little upside who will never be in your starting lineup. Ditch him for a high-upside free agent with the potential to catch fire. Take some proactive chances with your bench if you want to stay ahead of the curve.
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Joique Bell (DET – RB): 5% Owned
Bell led the Lions in receiving this week with six catches and 72 yards on eight targets. This came after he racked up 67 total yards the week before. He's the Lions' second backfield option behind Mikel LeShoure and could see his role grow if LeShoure continues to struggle the way he did against the Vikings. I don't see Kevin Smith or Javid Best supplanting Bell for the rest of the season, so I'd recommend storing Bell in a long-term bench slot in deeper leagues.
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Ronnie Hillman (DEN – RB): 9% Owned
Willis McGahee had a strong game against a flailing Raiders defense, but Hillman quietly had a solid game as well. Tallying 63 yards on 12 touches, he has clearly passed Lance Ball and Knowshon Moreno on the depth chart and will serve in the change-of-pace role going forward. McGahee turns 31 in a few weeks, and if he were to miss any time, Hillman would become a high-end flex play or even a low-end RB2 in this potent Broncos offense. In the meantime, he can help you as a bye-week flex fill-in.
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Conclusion
With the bye weeks gaining steam, acquiring depth from the waiver wire becomes even more critical. Plan a few weeks in advance to make sure you don't have any holes in your lineup. Be sure to move all Cowboys, Lions, Raiders, and Buccaneers to your bench, as they're on the bye this week. Good luck!
Share your thoughts and chat with Austin on Twitter @AustinNFL.
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