· BET Rams WR Cooper Kupp O 8.5 receptions (+105 DraftKings): Kupp vs. inexperienced Isaiah Simmons and/or Jace Whittaker is definition of a mismatch.
· BET Bucs -1.5 vs. Packers (-110 BetMGM): Since Brady’s arrival, Bucs have 13-6 ATS mark at home.
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Estimated reading time: 2 mins
There are four games in the late-afternoon Week 3 Sunday slate. Here are the PFF staff best bets:
Mike Renner: Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp O 8.5 catches at Arizona Cardinals (+105 DraftKings)
· Win or lose, Kupp is going to get his. He leads the NFL with 29 targets and 24 receptions so far this season. Operating from the slot, Kupp will either be matched up against former top-10 pick Isaiah Simmons, who’s being used in that role for the first time in his career, or Jace Whittaker, who was a UDFA in 2020 with 132 career snaps. That’s the definition of a mismatch.
Tej Seth: Atlantą Falcons at Seattle Seahawks U 43.5 total points (-110 BetMGM)
· The Falcons have scored 26.5 points per game, but their True Score average has been 24.0 points per game, meaning their underlying metrics aren’t as high on them as the results have been. An example of this is the Falcons scoring 7 points off a blocked punt last week, something that we don’t tend to see week-to-week. Meantime, Seattle has the second-worst offense in football, trailing only the Dallas Cowboys, with a True Score of 11.8.
Arjun Menon: Atlanta Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson O 42.5 rushing yards vs. Seattle Seahawks (-122 FanDuel; playable up to 44.5)
· Patterson has been a very efficient back through first two games: He's averaging 5.0 yards per carry and 0.27 rushing yards over expected. He barely missed this number last week despite only getting 10 carries in a game in which the Falcons were constantly playing from behind.
Richard Janvrin: Falcons QB Marcus Mariota anytime TD (+280 FanDuel)
· At +280, this is a great bet because, over the first two weeks, Mariota has 10 designed runs. He has an additional eight rushes coming from scrambling, too. With 18 rush attempts, Mariota has 88 rushing yards and a score. Atlanta's Falcons playmakers should be able to make some things happen on the road, and Mariota is part of that.
Tommy Jurgens: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 vs. Green Bay Packers (-115 BetMGM)
· It’s easy to fall in love with the Bucs as a short home favorite. Since Tom Brady’s arrival, the Bucs have a 13-6 ATS record in their home stadium, and this is a ripe opportunity to back Tampa in its home opener. Nearly the entirety of QB Aaron Rodgers’ supporting cast were limited participants in practice this week. Rodgers has vocalized the need for increased reps with his new receiving weapons, and a lack thereof is not ideal in a matchup with the No. defense in EPA / Play through two weeks.
Kurt Blakeway: Bucs ml vs. Packers (-120 DraftKings)