NFL Betting 2022: 5 mispriced player props in Week 3

Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws against the Los Angeles Chargers during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

WR Cooper Kupp's receptions prop (8.5): Take the over — Kupp has the clear upper hand against the Cardinals' linebackers in coverage and will see targets regardless of the game outcome.

QB Patrick Mahomes' passing TDs prop (2.5): Take the over — Mahomes has thrived against Cover 3 in his NFL career, and Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is running Cover 3 at by far the highest rate in the NFL this season.

QB Jalen Hurts' INT prop (0.5): Take the under — Hurts has yet to make a turnover-worthy play this year, and he faces a Washington defense that has just one interception through two weeks.

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We're looking to bounce back in Week 3 with our NFL prop plays. Trey Lance’s gruesome injury threw a wrench into my picks from a week ago, as they finished 1-3 to put us at 6-5 on the year. Here’s where my money is headed this week.

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WR Cooper Kupp o8.5 Receptions (+103)

Win or lose, Kupp is going to get his. He leads the NFL with 29 targets and 24 receptions so far this season. Operating from the slot, Kupp will either be matched up against former top-10 pick Isaiah Simmons, who’s being used in that role for the first time in his career, or Jace Whittaker, who was a UDFA in 2020 with 132 career snaps. That’s the definition of a mismatch.

The only thing that can stop Kupp is the Rams taking their foot off the gas pedal, and after the Arizona Cardinals‘ comeback last week, I don’t see head coach Sean McVay making the same mistake.

RB Aaron Jones u84.5 Rush/Rec Yards (-115)

I like the yardage props for Jones this week as opposed to the usage ones because there is a good chance he’s a big part of the game plan with a number of Packers receivers banged up. That doesn’t mean he’ll have success in such a role, however. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ linebackers have been a wrecking crew this season. Devin White is playing the best football of his career with nine stops through two weeks. He’s on track to surpass his career high for stops in a season (56 in 2020) by over 20. No back has gone over the above prop against the Bucs all season, and doing so will be even more difficult in a true timeshare that the Packers offense runs.

QB Patrick Mahomes o2.5 Passing TDs (+107)

The “book” on Mahomes the past two seasons has been two-high looks. It’s not because that necessarily shuts him down, but rather because he completely demolishes Cover 3. Here are his stats against Cover 3 since entering the NFL:

Stat vs. Cover 3 2-High Coverages
Attempts 413 517
Completions 582 765
Comp % 71.0% 67.6%
Yards 5,094 6,453
TD 23 27
INT 5 13
YPA 8.8 8.4
Passer Rating 107.3 98.2
Sacks 14 42
EPA/Dropback 0.338 0.225

Expected points added (EPA) per dropback is easily the most telling stat of them all. Mahomes has been about one-third less effective versus two-high coverages over the course of his career. The problem is, new Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley hails from the Pete Carroll Cover 3 tree. He has the Colts playing Cover 3 on 65.2% of their defensive snaps this season — 12.8 percentage points higher than any other team in the NFL. That spells trouble in Indy.

WR Darnell Mooney u43.5 Rec Yards (-118)

Chicago Bears brass made it clear on Sunday night in Week 2 against the Green Bay Packers that they’ll be running their offense with training wheels on, even when it’s not a monsoon. This is going to be a run-first team through and through to make sure quarterback Justin Fields doesn’t get demolished behind a porous offensive line.

The thing is, the Texans' defense likely won't force the Bears to go away from that gameplan. Houston's 31.9 team run defense grade is far and away the worst in the NFL at the moment. They’ve allowed 324 yards on the ground so far, at 4.7 yards per carry. The Bears may very well drop back to pass 11 times again, making Mooney a long shot to build upon his four total receiving yards this season.

QB Jalen Hurts u0.5 Interceptions (-107)

The Washington Commanders‘ secondary has been sufficiently carved up through two games this season once again. And the only takeaway through the air they’ve managed was a Trevor Lawrence desperation heave on a third down late in the fourth quarter in Week 1.

Jalen Hurts, on the other hand, has yet to make a turnover-worthy play all season. He’s taken his game to another level with a 90.8 passing grade through two weeks. Even if the Commanders' defensive line gets past the dominant Philadelphia Eagles offensive line, Hurts' escapability makes him unlikely to put the ball in harm’s way.

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