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NFL Week 12 Preview: Schedule, storylines, matchups to watch and betting spreads

By Thomas Valentine
  • Can the Rams stay on top?: The Rams have a difficult matchup against the Buccaneers, but are looking to stay at the top of the NFC.
  • The Chiefs face a tough battle against the Colts: The Chiefs are 5-5, and their playoff odds hang in the balance. A matchup against the Colts awaits.
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Estimated Reading Time: 19 minutes

We're diving into every matchup in Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season — including key storylines, matchups to watch, and injury news. The Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans kick things off on Thursday Night Football.

Click below to jump to a game:

BUF@HOU | NYJ@BAL | PIT@CHI | NE@CIN | NYG@DET | MIN@GB | IND@KC | SEA@TEN | JAX@ARZ | CLE@LV | PHI@DAL | ATL@NO | TB@LAR | CAR@SF

Buffalo Bills (-6) vs. Houston Texans

Storyline of the game: A top offense vs. a top defense

Bills quarterback Josh Allen (85.0 grade; 6th) went nuclear in Week 11 against the Buccaneers, scoring six total touchdowns, but he and the Bills’ offense (80.9 grade; 4th) face a much tougher test on Thursday night against the vaunted Texans’ defense (78.2 grade; 5th). The juxtaposition between the two units — the Texans, who allow the fewest points per game in the NFL (16.2), and the Bills, who score the fourth-most points per game (29.2) — means that something has to give. Will the Texans' defense drag the Bills' offense into the mud, or will the Bills' offense force the Texans' defense to adjust?

Matchup to watch: Bills T Dion Dawkins vs. Texans EDGE Will Anderson Jr.

In recent seasons, Bills tackle Dion Dawkins (71.9 grade; 26th) has elevated himself to top left tackle status. In 2025, he’s allowed just 20 pressures on 375 pass-blocking snaps, surrendering a pressure on just 6.1% of his snaps.

Dawkins is great, but he’s coming up against a force of nature in Texans edge defender Will Anderson Jr. (91.0 grade; 3rd). Anderson’s 55 pressures are third among all edge rushers, and the Texans are going to line him up as a wide nine and let him attack Dawkins with his speed and power. 

Additional News
  • Bills TE Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) hasn’t practiced this week and has been ruled out.
  • Bills WR Keon Coleman will be active after being a healthy scratch in Week 11.

New York Jets vs. Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)

Storyline of the game: Can the Ravens keep building momentum?

It feels like the Ravens have been quietly going about their business since Lamar Jackson (68.0 grade; 25th) returned to the lineup in Week 9. Since that point, the Ravens’ offense is 13th in EPA per play and has been mostly leaning on the running game, averaging 162 rushing yards per game.

Baltimore will have an excellent chance to find a little more momentum against a Jets defense (63.0 grade; 19th) that’s still trying to find its place after losing its two best players. The Ravens are bearing down on the top spot in the AFC North, and another win will keep pace with the Steelers.

Matchup to watch: Jets’ run defense vs. Ravens’ run game

Since Week 9, the Ravens are seventh in EPA per rushing play, and Derrick Henry (64.7 grade; 44th) has 297 rushing yards (2nd) and seven runs of over 10 yards (2nd) in that span. The Ravens are at their best when they’re able to effectively run the ball. Even if Jackson has been far more conservative rushing the ball, the threat of him and Henry in the backfield is a nightmare for defenses.

The Jets’ run defense showed up in their last outing, holding the Patriots to just 65 rushing yards, and is 15th in EPA per rush allowed. New York might not win this game, but it will at least look to slow down the Ravens’ not-so-secret weapon.

Additional News
  • Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey (finger) remains questionable but could return vs. the Jets.
  • The Ravens are 13.5-point favorites, their highest line of the season.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears (-3)

Storyline of the game: Will the Bears win another one-score game?

The Bears are 7-3 on the season, but are 6-1 in one-score games, with their only loss coming in Week 1 against the Vikings. At some point, those one-score contests can turn. But, the Bears’ offense (76.8 grade; 11th) has been playing well in recent weeks, and there’s an element of a potential leap on the horizon.

However, Chicago opens as field-goal favorites against a Steelers team looking to stay on top in the AFC North. The Steelers are 4-1 in one-score games in 2025, so this one has a chance to be a nail-biter.

Matchup to watch: Steelers’ defensive line vs. Bears’ offensive line

The Bears’ offensive line has been in top form in 2025, ranking sixth in PFF pass-blocking grade (70.0) and fifth in PFF run-blocking grade (76.0). The unit has significantly contributed to the Bears’ ascent, but it will take on a Steelers’ defensive line that houses talent.

The Steelers’ defense is third in PFF pass-rushing grade (87.2 grade) and 10th in PFF run-defense grade (69.5 grade), and third in pass-rush win rate (55.5%). The battle will be won in the trenches.

Additional News
  • Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers (wrist) won’t need surgery to address a minor fracture, but he could still miss this week's game.
  • Steelers HC Mike Tomlin is optimistic that Jaylen Warren (ankle) will be available for Sunday’s game.

New England Patriots (-8) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Storyline of the game: Can the Patriots take advantage of a porous Bengals defense?

The Patriots are 9-2 and are tied for the best record in the NFL, plus are a top 10 unit in EPA per play on offense and defense. Quarterback Drake Maye (86.0 grade; 4th) is playing at an MVP level, and the Patriots take on a struggling Bengals defense in Week 12.

The Bengals’ defense is rock bottom in EPA per play allowed and gives up 33.4 points per game in 2025. With New England firmly setting its sights on its first AFC East crown since 2019 and the top seed in the AFC, taking on a defense that’s failing to contain opponents is a layup. There’s enough talent on the offensive side of the ball for the Bengals to be concerned, but the Patriots open as 8-point favorites for a reason.

Matchup to watch: Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson vs. Bengals’ run defense

Patriots rookie TreVeyon Henderson (59.8 grade, 52nd) has taken a big step forward in the last two games while handling the starter reps, carrying the ball 33 times for 209 yards while scoring five total touchdowns, forcing six missed tackles and averaging 6.52 yards after contact per attempt.

The Bengals are second-to-last in EPA per rush allowed, and have yielded the fifth-most explosive runs in the NFL (36) this season. Henderson could be in for another big day.

Additional News

New York Giants vs. Detroit Lions (-10.5)

Storyline of the game: Can the Lions’ offense rebound?

The Lions played their worst offensive game of the season in Week 11. The Eagles held the Lions to just 9 points and 13 first downs in the 16-9 loss, with Jared Goff completing just 37.8% of his passes and earning a 42.5 grade. A bounceback in Week 12 against the 2-9 New York Giants is on the cards, though, and it’s sorely needed.

The Lions are in third place in the NFC North and can’t afford too many more slip-ups. The Detroit offense is eighth in EPA per play allowed, and the defeat to the Eagles probably says more about the strength of Philadelphia’s defense than anything.

Matchup to watch: Giants’ run defense vs. Lions run game

The Lions are at their best when rushing the ball. The one-two punch of Jahmyr Gibbs (85.5 grade; 2nd) and David Montgomery (67.2 grade; 38th), and an offensive line that blocks with the best of them (76.5 run-blocking grade; 4th), are great when they really get rolling.

This week, Detroit will face a Giants defense that’s allowed the most explosive runs in the NFL (45) and is dead last in EPA per rush play allowed.

Additional News

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Storyline of the game: Will J.J. McCarthy show some development?

Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (54.6 grade; 36th) is only five games into his NFL career, but the second-year starter has struggled mightily. McCarthy has completed a league-worst 52.9% of his passes and has the highest turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL (6.1%), and there are tangible concerns about his development.

Not much is going to change in one game, especially against a Packers defense (79.1 grade; 4th) that allows just 19.6 points per game and has edge rusher Micah Parsons (91.9 grade; 2nd) — one of the best players in the league.

Matchup to watch: Vikings’ pass blitz vs Packers QB Jordan Love

The Vikings are blitzing on 60.3% of their passing snaps, a staple of Brian Flores’ defense, and are ninth in EPA per play allowed on blitzes. But, Packers gunslinger Jordan Love (84.4 grade; 7th) has been excellent against the blitz in 2025. Love has earned an 88.6 grade against the blitz, the best in the NFL, and has eight touchdowns and one interception while being sacked just six times.

The Vikings’ biggest weapon on defense might be nullified against Love.

Additional News
  • Packers EDGE Lukas Van Ness (foot) is questionable after missing the last five games.
  • The Packers are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)

Storyline of the game: Are the Chiefs in doubt to make the playoffs?

The Chiefs are 5-5 heading into Week 12 and have just a 59% chance of reaching the postseason. That’s uncharted territory for this team, and the Chiefs could be in serious trouble of missing the postseason for the first time since 2014.

Taking on an 8-2 Colts team that is riding high isn’t going to do Kansas City any favors, either. The Colts are first in EPA per play on offense, while the Chiefs are still second. This could be a shootout, but the Chiefs hope to be the last ones holding the gun.

Matchup to watch: Colts RB Jonathan Taylor vs. Chiefs’ run defense

The Colts’ offense (83.6 grade, 3rd) goes as Jonathan Taylor (84.6; 3rd) does. Right now, Indianapolis is a near-unstoppable unit, scoring 32.1 points per game — the most in the NFL. Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,139), rushing touchdowns (15), PFF rushing grade (90.1) and yards after contact per attempt (4.47), and is having one of the all-time great running back seasons.

The Chiefs are 13th in PFF run-defense grade (67.8) but are 22nd in EPA per rush allowed. Could Taylor put the Chiefs in an uncomfortable position with another strong performance?

Additional News
  • Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco (knee) is questionable after missing the last two games.
  • The Colts are underdogs for the fourth time this season.

Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) vs. Tennessee Titans

Storyline of the game: How will Sam Darnold respond to a setback?

Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (88.9 grade; 2nd) has played out of his skin in 2025 and helped lift the Seahawks to a 7-3 record in the NFC. However, Darnold had his worst game of the season against the Rams in Week 11, throwing four interceptions and notching a 39.2 grade.

The Seahawks face the 1-9 Titans in Week 12, presenting the perfect chance for Darnold to get back into a rhythm after a disappointing Week 11. The Seahawks are still one of the top teams in the NFL, and Darnold has been playing like an MVP candidate.

Matchup to watch: Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Titans CB Jayln Armour-Davis

Seahawks wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba (93.4 grade; 1st) has been on a heater in 2025. Smith-Njigba leads the NFL in receiving yards (1,146) and has 72 catches (3rd) and five touchdowns on the season, and has elevated himself to superstar status in his third season with the Seahawks.

Titans corner Jayln Armour-Davis (50.3 grade; 98th) has allowed 318 yards on 20 receptions, committing five penalties in coverage while allowing 15.9 yards per reception. Smith-Njigba has caught 13 passes of 20 yards or more this season, the most in the NFL.

Additional News
  • Seahawks G Grey Zabel (knee) is considered day-to-day after suffering an injury against the Rams in Week 11.
  • Titans WR Calvin Ridley (fibula) was placed on IR and is out for the season.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals

Storyline of the game: Will the Jaguars continue to lean into the rushing attack?

The Jaguars mauled the Chargers 35-6 in Week 11, with excellent efforts across the board. However, the success was largely driven by an effective ground game, with the Jaguars totaling 192 rushing yards to pair with four rushing touchdowns. Rookie Bhayshul Tuten (66.3 grade; 41st) had a career day, carrying the ball 15 times for 74 yards and a touchdown, earning a 78.1 grade, while Travis Etienne (75.9; 14th) added 73 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries.

The Cardinals’ defense is 27th in PFF grade against the run (54.9). The Jaguars will hope for the same success as a week ago in Week 12, looking to move to a 7-4 record.

Matchup to watch: Jaguars WR Jakobi Meyers vs. Cardinals CB Will Johnson

Jaguars wide receiver Jakobi Meyers has only played two games for the team since his trade from the Raiders, but has made a considerable impact on the passing game. Meyers has earned Trevor Lawrence’s (68.6 grade; 23rd) trust over the last two games, catching eight passes for 105 yards while compiling a 79.8 grade.

Interestingly, the Jaguars have lined Meyers up out wide on 69.0% of his snaps, despite positioning out wide on just 39.4% of his snaps for the Raiders in 2025. If Cardinals rookie corner Will Johnson (75.5 grade; 8th) is healthy, he’ll give Meyers a tough game. Johnson has given up just 19 receptions for 162 yards in 2025 while breaking up six passes.

Additional News

Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5)

Storyline of the game: How will QB Shedeur Sanders fare in his first career start?

Browns newcomer Shedeur Sanders stepped in for his first NFL snaps against the Ravens, registering a 27.4 grade while completing just 4-of-16 pass attempts.

With a few practices of first-team reps under his belt, the Browns will hope that Sanders can put in a more composed performance, especially against a Raiders defense that’s 23rd in EPA per play allowed. As Dillon Gabriel (49.0 grade; 39th) has yet to impress, Sanders will have the chance to carve out a role as the team’s starter, at least until the end of the season.

Matchup to watch: Browns RB Quinshon Judkins vs. Raiders’ run defense

With Sanders set to make his first start, the Browns will potentially look for rookie runner Quinshon Judkins (71.4 grade; 23rd) to carry the load on offense. Judkins has toted the ball 157 times for 620 yards (17th) and five touchdowns (12th), and has forced 28 missed tackles (14th). 

The Raiders haven’t been too hot against the run (51.8 grade; 29th). Judkins, even behind a poor offensive line (55.4 run blocking grade; 24th), has the talent to take advantage.

Additional News 
  • Browns QB Dillion Gabriel remains in concussion protocol.
  • Browns’ tackle duo Cam Robinson (knee) and Jack Conklin (knee) are both considered day-to-day.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Storyline of the game: Can the Eagles’ defense swallow up another top offense?

 In the last two weeks, the Eagles’ defense (74.0 grade; 8th) has dragged two top offenses into the mud, holding the Lions’ (80.3 grade; 5th) and Packers’ offenses (76.9 grade; 10th) to 16 combined points. While the Philadelphia offense has struggled in that time, the defense has made life incredibly tough, as the addition of edge rusher Jaelan Phillips (71.5 grade; 34th) has helped.

The Eagles will take on a Cowboys offense (78.8 grade; 6th) that’s scoring 29.6 points per game, the second-most in the NFL. Can the Eagles slow them down, just like the Lions and Packers?

Matchup to watch: Eagles CB Quinyon Mitchell vs. Cowboys WR George Pickens

Eagles corner Quinyon Mitchell (71.0 grade; 20th) has been a black hole for quarterbacks in 2025. Mitchell has allowed just 26 receptions on 60 targets for 280 yards, the third-lowest completion rate among cornerbacks, and he’s done that against some top-level competition.

He’ll have to repeat that against Cowboys receiver George Pickens (87.3 grade; 24th. Pickens is having a career year, catching 58 passes (8th) for 908 yards (2nd) and seven touchdowns (3rd) and will be a handful for Mitchell all day. Both are physical players, and we could be in for a star-studded matchup.

Additional News
  • Eagles T Lane Johnson (Lisfranc) is expected to be sidelined for four to six weeks.
  • The Cowboys placed T Ajani Cornelius (knee) on IR on Monday.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

Storyline of the game: What will the Falcons’ offense look like without WR Drake London and QB Michael Penix Jr.?

The Falcons suffered double jeopardy in the Week 11 loss to the Panthers, losing Michael Penix Jr. (59.3 grade; 34th) for the rest of the season with a partially torn ACL, and Drake London (90.5 grade; 3rd) for at least this week with a PCL sprain.

Penix has struggled in 2025, but the entire strength of the Falcons’ passing game is his connection with London. Without that camaraderie, and with Kirk Cousins inability to lift the passing attack against the Panthers, there should be alarm bells ringing in Atlanta for the rest of the season.

Matchup to watch: Falcons CB A.J. Terrell vs. Saints WR Chris Olave

A.J. Terrell (62.9 grade; 49th) has consistently been one of the top corners in the NFL for a few years now, and will have a great opportunity to demonstrate that against Saints receiver Chris Olave (71.7 grade; 39th) on Sunday. Olave has garnered targets (91; 4th) for the Saints’ offense, catching 60 passes (5th) for 664 yards (13th) and has just two drops on the year. Terrell has allowed just 15 receptions on 25 targets for 170 yards without giving up a touchdown.

Additional News
  • The Saints are favorites for just the second time this season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)

Storyline of the game: Are the Rams the best team in the NFL?

The Rams clawed past the Seahawks 21-19 in Week 11 to move to 8-2, and to the top spot in the NFC West — plus the NFC. They’re third in EPA per play on offense and defense and have Matthew Stafford (92.3 grade; 1st), who is playing like an MVP favorite.

The Rams have beaten the Seahawks, Colts, 49ers, Jaguars and Ravens this season — though the Ravens were without Jackson — and have a case as the best team in the NFL. Another big win against the Buccaneers, another potential playoff team, would only strengthen their cause.

Matchup to watch: Buccaneers CB Jamel Dean vs. Rams WR Puka Nacua

The Rams’ offense (90.7 grade; 1st) has arguably been the best in the NFL, and it reaches its ceiling when Stafford is targeting star Puka Nacua (93.3 grade; 2nd). Nacua has been banged up the last couple of weeks, but still has 73 catches (2nd) for 850 yards (2nd) and four touchdowns, and is a cheat code in nearly every matchup.

However, Buccaneers cornerback Jamel Dean (90.5 grade; 1st) will give him a rough ride if he’s ready to go. Dean has allowed the second-lowest completion rate (43.2%) when targeted in the NFL, permitting just 16 of 37 tries for 212 yards when targeted.

Additional News
  • Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving (shoulder/foot) could return in Week 12.
  • Rams S Quentin Lake (elbow) is expected to be out after reportedly having surgery.

Carolina Panthers vs. San Francisco 49ers (-7.0)

Storyline of the game: Can the 49ers hang tough in the playoff race?

The 49ers have been beaten up all season, but at 7-4, are still in the thick of the NFC wild-card race. With Brock Purdy returning against the Cardinals a week ago, the 49ers' offense (78.1 grade; 7th) is close to full health, and looked as good as ever with Purdy under center.

A win against a tough Panthers team will boost the 49ers to 8-4 and all but seal their path to the playoffs. A loss, well, would make things a little more complicated.

Matchup to watch: Panthers’ pass coverage vs. 49ers TE George Kittle

Over the last few weeks, 49ers tight end George Kittle (86.9 grade; 1st) has stepped back in from injury and immediately slotted into his rightful spot as the best tight end in the NFL. In the last two games, Kittle has caught 15 passes for 151 yards and three touchdowns, and leads all tight ends with an 88.7 grade.

He’s a matchup nightmare for any defense, especially a Panthers unit with a 55.2 PFF coverage grade (19th). Kittle will line up against the Panthers’ linebackers, safeties and slot corners, and give all of them a day at the races.

Additional News
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