PFF Grades and Data: Key insights for the Week 15 NFL games

No player has made defenders miss more consistently than Bijan Robinson: Robinson's 80 forced missed tackles lead the NFL by a wide margin — 13 more than any other player. He has forced at least five missed tackles in five straight games, giving him 10 such performances on the season. The next closest player, Jahmyr Gibbs, has eight.

Will the Ravens finally find an answer for Ja’Marr Chase? Over Chase's last three games against Baltimore (2024–25), he has averaged nine catches, 189 yards and two touchdowns. Across 10 career matchups — including the postseason — he has posted 74 catches for 1,156 yards and nine touchdowns, all career highs against any opponent.

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NFL Week 15 is here, and with it comes a fresh wave of advanced data and analysis.

PFF’s media research team has been hard at work this week, preparing for kickoff — pulling data-driven insights and talking points for our broadcast partners around the league. Now, we’re sharing those same nuggets with you. So, whether you’re looking to win your fantasy matchup, hit on your bets or just get smarter about the game, these are the key storylines to know for every Week 15 contest.

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Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield punished the Falcons with his legs back in Week 1, scrambling four times for 40 yards and three conversions — and that threat hasn’t gone away. His 20 scramble conversions trail only Patrick Mahomes, and his 15 missed tackles forced on runs are tied with Josh Allen for the most by a quarterback. Atlanta has struggled in this area all year, allowing a league-high 293 rushing yards and the second-most conversions on scrambles (17).

No player has made defenders miss more consistently than Bijan Robinson, whose 80 forced missed tackles lead the NFL by a wide margin — 13 more than any other player. He has forced at least five missed tackles in five straight games, giving him 10 such performances on the season. The next closest player, Jahmyr Gibbs, has eight. Robinson forced five missed tackles against Tampa Bay in Week 1, though the Buccaneers overall have been one of the league’s better tackling teams with just 97 misses, tied for the 10th-fewest.

Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears

Avoiding sacks was a major issue for Shedeur Sanders at Colorado, but through his limited action with Cleveland, he has taken a noticeable step forward. Sanders has been sacked on just 12.9% of his pressured dropbacks, the ninth-lowest rate among 44 qualifying quarterbacks. However, his decision-making under pressure remains volatile, as his five turnover-worthy plays in those situations rank third-most since he took his first snaps in Week 11.

Chicago, meanwhile, has done an excellent job protecting Caleb Williams. The Bears lead the league with a 2.72-second average time to pressure and have allowed only 83 quick pressures (under 2.5 seconds), the fourth-fewest in the NFL.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

Will the Ravens finally find an answer for Ja’Marr Chase? Over Chase's last three games against Baltimore (2024–25), he has averaged nine catches, 189 yards and two touchdowns. Across 10 career matchups — including the postseason — he has posted 74 catches for 1,156 yards and nine touchdowns, all career highs against any opponent.

On Thanksgiving, five different Ravens defenders logged at least five coverage snaps against Chase, and Kyle Hamilton was the only one who didn’t allow multiple receptions.

Zay Flowers, meanwhile, was bottled up by Cincinnati in that same game, finishing with a season-low two catches for 6 yards. It marked just the second time in his career he produced zero yards after the catch — and the first time he posted negative yards after contact (-2). Still, Flowers ranks sixth among wide receivers this season in yards after the catch (386) and is tied for third with 15 receptions gaining 10-plus yards after the catch.

Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans

Michael Wilson has been one of the league’s most in-form receivers in recent weeks. Since Week 11, his 2.63 yards per route run ranks eighth among wideouts with at least 50 snaps, and his 14 contested catches lead all receivers in that span. That surge brings his season total to 20 contested catches, second only to Puka Nacua’s 23.

Houston’s defense, meanwhile, continues to overwhelm opponents at every level. In coverage, the Texans have three defensive backs ranking inside the top 12 in passer rating allowed: Calen Bullock sits third at 38.1, Jalen Pitre ranks sixth at 54.5 and Derek Stingley Jr. ranks 12th at 67.1, with Kamari Lassiter just outside the top 25 at 77.2.

New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Rookie tackle Armand Membou has been outstanding on zone runs, earning an 84.7 PFF run-block grade on inside and outside zone this season, which ranks 10th among offensive tackles with 100 or more snaps.

On the other side of the ball, Jacksonville has leaned into an aggressive downfield approach during its four-game winning streak. Since Week 11, only the Packers have a higher rate of 20-plus-yard pass attempts than the Jaguars at 19.1%, and Trevor Lawrence has rewarded that shift with a 52.9% accurate-throw rate on deep passes — sixth highest in that span after ranking last at 20.0% through the first 10 weeks.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Chargers rely heavily on their dime defense, using it at the second-highest rate in the league (25%). On third down, that usage spikes dramatically, as Los Angeles plays dime on 64% of third-down snaps, the highest rate of any team in the NFL.

In their first matchup back in Week 1, Patrick Mahomes went 9-of-18 for 142 yards, added one scramble and took one sack against the Chargers’ dime looks. No quarterback has faced more dime this season than Mahomes: his 103 dropbacks versus the package lead the league. However, his 54% completion rate in those situations ranks just 27th among 32 qualifying quarterbacks.

The Chiefs’ creativity with their third-down blitz packages has fueled the NFL’s most disruptive pass rush in money-down situations. Kansas City leads the league with a 55% pressure rate on third down, overwhelming protections in a variety of ways. Their 39% quick-pressure rate is also the highest in the NFL, and their 17% unblocked pressure rate ranks as the second-highest, underscoring just how often Steve Spagnuolo’s schemes create free runners at the quarterback.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Last week against Cincinnati, Buffalo’s tight ends played a major role in the passing attack, producing 103 yards after the catch — the second-highest total by any tight end group in a game this season. Through Week 14, Bills tight ends are averaging 6.3 yards after the catch, the fourth-highest mark among all teams.

On the opposite sideline, Hunter Henry is in the midst of one of the most productive after-the-catch seasons of his career. His 6.0 YAC per reception is a personal best, and his 268 yards after the catch put him on pace to surpass his career-high 274 YAC set just last season. Henry’s improved efficiency with the ball in his hands has become a valuable element of New England’s offense.

Washington Commanders @ New York Giants

Rookie Josh Conerly Jr. has shown major development for the Commanders during the second half of the season. Through Week 8, Conerly allowed a 9.8% pressure rate, the 11th-highest among 76 qualifying offensive tackles, and had surrendered six sacks.

Since Week 9, however, his performance has taken a dramatic leap. Conerly has allowed just a 3.9% pressure rate, the ninth-lowest among all tackles over that span, and he has not allowed a single sack.

If there’s one area the Giants will need to tighten coming out of their bye week, it’s limiting explosive plays on the ground. New York has allowed the most runs of 10-plus yards this season (59), and their 19% explosive run rate allowed is the highest in the NFL.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Brock Bowers will present a significant challenge for the Eagles defense thanks to his explosiveness after the catch. Since entering the league in 2024, he has produced 704 yards after the catch when targeted from in-line or slot alignments — third most among all players — and his 28 explosive receptions rank sixth in the NFL.

Philadelphia, however, has been one of the league’s stingiest units against slot and in-line receivers, allowing just 9.4 yards per reception (fifth lowest) and a league-best 3.8 yards after the catch per reception. Bowers will push a part of this defense that has held up exceptionally well all season.

On the other side, the Raiders defense relies heavily on post-snap single-high looks, using them on 60% of plays, the fifth-highest rate in the league. That tendency is likely to encourage Jalen Hurts and the Eagles to attack vertically, as Philadelphia leads the NFL with an 18% deep-pass rate against single-high coverage.

Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos

Jordan Love has been one of the league’s most effective quarterbacks when attacking outside the numbers this season. His 93.9 passing grade on those throws leads all quarterbacks, and his 113.0 passer rating ranks sixth-best. That efficiency sets up a favorable matchup against a Broncos defense that has been vulnerable in this area.

Denver has struggled to defend the perimeter, allowing a 16% explosive pass play rate on targets outside the numbers, tied for the 18th-highest mark in the league. Compounding those issues, the Broncos have been flagged for a league-high 15 defensive pass interference penalties on throws to receivers near the sidelines.

Those struggles stand in stark contrast to Denver’s performance in the middle of the field, where they allow the NFL's lowest explosive-play rate (11%). Given that split, expect Love and the Packers offense to challenge Denver aggressively outside the numbers, where the Broncos have been far more susceptible to both big plays and costly penalties.

Among the 32 quarterbacks with the most dropbacks under pressure this season, Bo Nix has been the hardest to bring down, taking a sack on just 10.5% of his pressured dropbacks — the lowest rate in the league. Jordan Love is right behind him at 11.0%, the second-lowest mark.

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints

Tyler Shough’s legs were a major factor in New Orleans’ upset win over the Buccaneers, as he produced four designed runs for 45 yards and a touchdown plus a 13-yard scramble for another score. His three explosive runs and three forced missed tackles were both top-five marks by a quarterback in a single game this season, but the Panthers have been the league’s toughest defense against QB rushing, allowing a league-low 138 yards to the position.

Bryce Young, meanwhile, has been dialed in as a deep passer over his last three games, completing six of his 10 attempts for 191 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. For the season, he ranks fifth among qualifying quarterbacks in deep-passing grade (95.0) and adjusted completion rate (53%) on throws 20-plus yards downfield, but he faces a Saints defense that has seen the fifth-highest deep-pass rate yet ranks third with a 27% forced incompletion rate on those attempts.

Indianapolis Colts @ Seattle Seahawks

The Vikings refused to give Jaxon Smith-Njigba any one-on-one chances in Week 13, holding him to zero catches against single coverage, but he bounced back in Week 14 with five receptions for 77 yards and two touchdowns. For the season, his 799 yards against single coverage lead all pass-catchers, and his eight touchdowns rank second.

With Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward sidelined, the matchup likely falls to Mekhi Blackmon, who has struggled in isolation and ranks 54th of 55 corners in PFF grade in single coverage (28.2).

Jonathan Taylor’s production has dipped since the Colts’ Week 10 bye, with his yards per carry falling from 6.0 pre-bye to 3.7 afterward, driven mostly by a drop in yards after contact from 4.5 to 2.2. He has only one carry of 15-plus yards since Week 12 after tying for the league lead in explosive runs through the first 10 weeks, and now faces a Seahawks defense that has allowed the second-fewest explosive runs and sixth-fewest yards after contact this season.

Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams

No defender has done more to help close out games this season than Aidan Hutchinson. The Lions’ star pass rusher has been at his most dominant in the fourth quarter, where his 37 total pressures lead all players. Hutchinson also owns the highest fourth-quarter pass rush win rate (32.8%) and the top pressure rate (30.3%), making him the league’s most disruptive closer when it matters most.

Puka Nacua continued his dominant season last week against the Cardinals, catching five of his six contested targets and pushing his season total to 23 contested catches — the most of any player in 2025. His remarkable 79% contested-catch rate is currently on pace to become the highest single-season mark by any player since PFF began tracking the metric in 2017.

Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers

Entering Week 14, the Browns defense led the league with just 3.7 yards per carry allowed, but Titans running back Tony Pollard broke through for 25 carries, 161 yards (6.4 per carry) and two touchdowns. Seventy-five of those rushing yards came before contact, far surpassing his previous season high of 29, and his 65- and 32-yard touchdown runs were his first gains of 30-plus yards all season. The 49ers, however, have allowed only one such run, and their 9% explosive run rate allowed ranks fourth best.

Brock Purdy has faced significant pressure since returning to the lineup, with the 49ers allowing a 43% pressure rate since Week 11, fourth highest in the NFL. Despite that, he has taken only two sacks in that span and remains the only quarterback this season with at least 30 pressured dropbacks (72) and fewer than five sacks taken (4). Tennessee’s pass rush, led by Jeffery Simmons — who has eight sacks and is tied for second among interior defenders with 49 pressures — will present one of his toughest tests yet.

Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys

No quarterback has handled pressure better this season than Dak Prescott, whose 73.4 passing grade under pressure leads all qualifiers by a wide margin (Matthew Stafford is next at 64.1). Prescott has been more productive under pressure, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt compared to 7.2 when kept clean, and now faces a Vikings defense that leads the NFL with a 43% pressure rate and allows just 5.7 yards per attempt when pressure lands, eighth-best in the league.

J.J. McCarthy has struggled in clean pockets this season, ranking last among qualifying quarterbacks in passing grade in those situations (67.0), but he looked far more settled in Week 14 against Washington, completing 14 of 17 passes for 152 yards and two touchdowns when kept clean.

A quicker process played a major role: his average time to throw from a clean pocket dropped from a league-leading 2.68 seconds to 2.15, and he now draws a Cowboys defense that has been vulnerable when quarterbacks have clean pockets, allowing a 116.0 passer rating, third-worst in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have shown vulnerability against tight ends this season, allowing eight touchdowns (tied for third most) and 818 receiving yards, the ninth-highest total in the league. They now face a Dolphins offense that has steadily increased its tight end usage, raising its TE target rate from 11.0% in Weeks 1–4 to 21.6% since Week 5 following the additions of Darren Waller and Greg Dulcich.

Miami’s defense has been far less successful against the run, particularly on inside zone. Only the Jets and Panthers have allowed more yards per attempt on inside zone than the Dolphins at 5.1, and while Pittsburgh’s rushing attack has struggled overall, 32.1% of the Steelers’ explosive runs have come on inside zone, the highest rate of any concept they run.