- Year 2 for Bo Nix and Drake Maye: The sophomore quarterbacks seek to lead upstart offenses in the AFC.
- The new-look Raiders offense could break out: With a new head coach, quarterback and offensive coordinator, the Raiders could be in a strong position in 2025.
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Estimated Reading Time: 12 minutes
With the start of the 2025 NFL season now upon us, we’re taking a look at predicting breakout offenses based on teams' performances in the second half of the 2024 season. While teams that finished the last season strongly after a slow start aren’t guaranteed a breakout, there should be a reasonable amount of optimism after an offseason of finding a little more cohesion.
Which teams could be on the verge of a breakout in 2025? Let’s dive into the data for a deeper look.
Denver Broncos
2024 Weeks 1-9 EPA: 28th
2024 Weeks 10-18 EPA: 8th
The Denver offense was one of the surprise packages in the second half of the 2024 season, as the Broncos made a late-season surge to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2015. The driving force of the team was the defense, which earned a 77.9 overall grade in the regular season.
But as the rookie quarterback Nix, the team’s first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, found his comfort in Sean Payton’s system, the offense kicked it up a gear. Naturally, there’s hope from within the building that the kick-on in Year 2 could be exponential.
Last season started slowly for the Broncos' rookie quarterback. He earned a 66.5 overall grade in his first nine starts, completing 62.6% of his passes for 1,753 yards, eight touchdowns, and six interceptions. On top of that, his 6.0 yards per attempt ranked 33rd out of 40 quarterbacks. Like most rookie quarterbacks, Nix struggled to find his footing, but his 1.6% turnover-worthy play rate was still the third-lowest in the league. That low clip could also be construed as the offense taking very few risks, but as the season progressed, Nix and the offense opened up.
Nix delivered from Week 10 onward, completing 70.3% of his passes for 2,022 yards, 21 touchdowns and six interceptions. His 82.7 overall PFF grade was 11th among quarterbacks during that stretch.
Surrounding Nix with more playmakers was key for the Broncos heading into 2025, and the initial returns are positive. The team drafted Illinois receiver Pat Bryant in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft, and added veteran tight end Evan Engram — who earned a 72.5 overall grade in his final season with the Jacksonville Jaguars — to the mix, with the hopes that both can greatly contribute to the passing game.
The main area of improvement has been addressed, too. The Broncos' rushing attack struggled in 2024, as the team’s 70.7 PFF rushing grade was 28th in the NFL. Reinforcements in the form of veteran running back J.K. Dobbins and 2025 second-round pick RJ Harvey will give the offense an element of explosiveness and consistency that it lacked on the ground a year ago. Harvey totaled 54 rushes of 10 yards or more in 2024, the second-most in the FBS, and his 89.5 PFF rushing grade was 13th.
It’s fairly easy to buy into some element of growth for the Broncos offense. The signs were there in the back half of the 2024 season, and the reality is, Payton remains one of the best offensive playcallers in the game and possesses one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in the league. That’s an excellent foundation for growth, and if Nix continues to ascend in his second year, Denver’s offense could be primed for a breakout.
Los Angeles Chargers
2024 Weeks 1-9 EPA: 16th
2024 Weeks 10-18 EPA: 9th
When you have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, your offense always has a chance to be terrific. But for some reason, that hasn’t always translated for the Los Angeles Chargers. Justin Herbert earned a career-high 91.2 overall grade in 2024 — and has never posted lower than a 77.9 grade in his five years in the league — but the Chargers haven’t had a top-ten-graded offense since 2021. Something hasn’t clicked, whether it’s been a poor offensive line, a lack of running game or inconsistencies in the passing game.
The Chargers hired former Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh to change the trajectory of the team, and while his and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter’s influence was expected on the defensive side of the ball, the early returns on offense were mixed. Herbert was impressive, generating an 80.1 overall grade while throwing 10 touchdowns and one interception, but the lack of consistency in the rushing attack held the Chargers back. From Weeks 1-9, the Chargers were 27th in rushing EPA per play. The blocking — especially from the interior — failed to produce many rushing lanes to attack, and the results, despite some explosive plays, were down-to-down struggles.
The offense was kept afloat in the first half of the season by the passing attack. However, the second half of 2024 yielded more positive results for Greg Roman’s run game.
The Chargers ranked 16th in EPA per rush play from Week 10 onward. With an improved running back room thanks to the additions of Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris in the offseason, the Chargers can begin to lean more into a physical run game that Harbaugh desires. The season-ending knee injury to Rashawn Slater throws a major spanner in the works, but the additions of Mekhi Becton and Andre James give the interior some more power.
As long as the running game can be adequate, there should be enough trust in the passing game to carry the load. The Chargers added Tre Harris in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft to pair with excellent second-year receiver Ladd McConkey, who caught 82 passes for 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns, accruing an 84.3 overall grade. LA also brought back veteran receiver Keenan Allen to round out the receiving room. Success has been building around the corner in Los Angeles for a few seasons now, and it feels like the Chargers might finally deliver in 2025.
Carolina Panthers
2024 Weeks 1-9: 30th
2024 Weeks 10-18: 13th
The Panthers faced a crossroads at the start of the 2024 season. After generating just a 56.4 overall grade in his rookie campaign, No. 1 pick Bryce Young remained the starter — but there were serious doubts over the long-term viability of Young under center. Young was benched after just two games and reinstated after a humbling Week 7 loss to the Washington Commanders. Coincidentally, that’s when this offense, and Young, awakened.
Things couldn’t have gone much worse for Young or the Panthers early in the season. The offense was 30th in EPA per play through the first nine weeks, and Young compiled a 30.1 grade in Weeks 1 and 2. Even when Andy Dalton was installed as the starter, the Panthers' offense just couldn’t gain a foothold — but sometimes, a step back is all you need.
Once Young was brought back in for Week 10, the Panthers' offense took a major leap forward. Carolina placed 13th in EPA per play in the back half of the season, and Young’s improvements were the driving force behind the team’s success. He amassed an 85.5 overall grade in Weeks 10 through 18, and his 22 big-time throws were second only to Joe Burrow. On top of that, the percentage of deep throws made by Young was the second-most in the NFL.
Through all the changes, one constant remained: the Panthers’ rushing attack. Carolina ranked 13th in EPA per play through the first half of the season, but improved to sixth from Week 10 or later.
That rushing attack is buoyed by one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the NFL, a unit that earned a 73.1 PFF run-blocking grade in 2024 and which returns all five starters in 2025. At running back, Carolina added Rico Dowdle and Trevor Etienne to the running back room to join Chuba Hubbard, who gained a career-high 1,195 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2024 while posting a 75.4 overall grade.
What was glaringly obvious was the Panthers' desperate need for a big-time receiver to pair with Young. The team drafted Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan with the No. 8 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, and if McMillan can make an impact in his rookie season, the state of the passing attack will be in better shape. For that to really come into effect, though, the Panthers will need Young to continue to ascend, just as he did in the back half of 2024.
New England Patriots
2024 Weeks 1-9: 27th
2024 Weeks 10-18: 22nd
The Patriots' improvement in the second half of the 2024 season probably doesn’t compare to the likes of the Broncos or the Panthers, but you don’t need to squint too hard to see that once Drake Maye had settled in after a few games, the Patriots' arrow was sneakily pointing upwards.
In the first nine weeks of the season, the Patriots were a bottom-six offense in the NFL in EPA per play. Maye played in five contests over the first nine weeks of the season, accumulating a 66.5 overall grade while completing 65.6% of his passes for 770 yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions. He also had the second-highest turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL at 5.3%. Maye showed that he could make the big plays, but the growing pains were evident.
The second-half growth for Maye and the Patriots offense was subtle, but enough to leave the front office feeling optimistic about the direction of the team. Maye generated a 70.0 overall grade in the second half of the season, completing 67.1% of his passes for 1,506 yards, nine touchdowns and six interceptions. The touchdown-to-interception ratio wasn’t stellar, but Maye dropped his turnover-worthy play rate down to 2.4% while improving his yards per pass attempt from 6.2 to 7.1.
The Patriots were one of the big spenders in free agency, and while the bulk of the money was invested on the defensive side of the ball, the front office made sure to put Maye in a far better position to succeed in 2025. New head coach Mike Vrabel started that process by hiring the team’s former offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels, who will likely design an offense capable of lifting Maye and accentuating his best traits.
Improving the offensive line was an obvious area of need. Maye was sacked 34 times in 13 games, and the Patriots' offensive line allowed the second-highest pressure rate in the league.
Heading into 2025, the Patriots enter the season with four new starters on the offensive line. The team drafted Will Campbell with the No. 4 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft in addition to selecting guard Jared Wilson in the third round. In free agency, New England signed tackle Morgan Moses and center Garrett Bradbury.
With the line bolstered and the Patriots adding a wealth of playmakers in free agency and the draft, the New England offense could be on the cusp of a major improvement in 2025. Maye has a competent wide receiver room led by veteran Stefon Diggs, third-round pick Kyle Williams and Demario Douglas, who was responsible for a 70.0 grade in 2024.
The rushing attack will potentially take a step forward in 2025, too. The Patriots added Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft, and Henderson will likely bring an element of explosiveness and receiving ability.
Las Vegas Raiders
2024 Weeks 1-9: 32nd
2024 Weeks 10-18: 21st
After a 2-2 start in 2024, the Las Vegas Raiders crumbled and lost their next 10 games before finishing with a 4-13 record. Their first-half struggles were rooted in what was the worst offense in the NFL by EPA per play. The Raiders failed to move the ball through the air with the combination of Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell at quarterback, and their rushing attack was by far the worst in the NFL.
However, things improved in the second half of the season. The Raiders placed 21st in EPA per play and 18th per pass play between Weeks 10 and 18, a turnaround aided by rookie sensation Brock Bowers — who earned an 85.1 overall grade while breaking the rookie record for receptions in a season. The rushing attack still struggled, though, even if the offensive line earned a top-20 run-blocking grade. Improving on the ground was paramount for the Raiders in 2025, but just one piece of an ever-changing puzzle.
The Raiders underwent major changes in the offseason, firing head coach Antonio Pierce and general manager Tom Telesco, and replacing the pair with Pete Carroll and Buccaneers’ assistant general manager John Spytek. Their first port of call was to address the quarterback position, trading for Geno Smith, whom Carroll coached in Seattle. Smith secured an 83.1 overall grade in 2024 and will have a much better supporting cast with the Raiders in 2025 than in his final year with the Seahawks. Smith should form a strong bond with Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, while the likes of Tre Tucker and rookie receivers Jack Bech and Donte’ Thornton will also contribute to the passing game.
The state of the rushing game will be in a much better spot in 2025. The Raiders drafted college phenom Ashton Jeanty with the No. 6 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft while adding veteran Raheem Mostert to the backfield. Jeanty rushed for 2,287 yards and 28 touchdowns in 2024 en route to a 95.4 overall grade for the Boise State Broncos. The step up from the Mountain West to the AFC West will be sizable, but Jeanty has proven that he has the talent to succeed.
The offense’s improvement will be tied together by Chip Kelly calling the plays. In his return to NFL action, Kelly could design one of the better offenses in the league.
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