What are the NFL's most consistently great and consistently bad offenses?

The 2019 49ers demonstrated how quickly a team is capable of going from worst to first in today’s NFL, even without the benefit of upper-echelon QB play. Of course, their path to the Super Bowl was prefaced by matchups against the Vikings and Packers — two teams that have consistently found themselves playing into January over the past half decade.

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We can hope to identify the next rags-to-riches squad, although it’ll be a bit easier to identify which teams have managed to function among the league’s top squads year-in and year-out. Today we’ll take a look at the offensive side of the ball, specifically, to pinpoint the league’s most and least consistent offenses in:

• Run blocking
• Pass blocking
• Receiving
• Rushing
• Passing  

Some resources that have been completed already and relate to this study:

• Ranking the continuity of all 32 NFL teams’ passing games entering 2020
• Taking fantasy football stock of every NFL backfield entering the 2020 season
• Which defenses are worth concerning ourselves with for fantasy football?

Without further ado: the most consistently great and consistently poor team performances over the past half decade.

Run blocking

An offense’s ability to control the line of scrimmage involves a variety of factors. Obviously, the big uglies up front make the most impact, although history tells us that having a dual-threat QB can also greatly enhance a team’s rushing attack.

The following metrics will help us determine an offense’s run-blocking ability:

• PFF run block grade rank
• Yards before contact per rush rank

The following chart denotes every team’s average rank in these categories from 2015-2019.

A few takeaways:

• The Eagles, Falcons, Cowboys, Patriots, Saints and Titans are the league’s only offenses to average a top-10 rank in run blocking grade over the past five seasons.
• The impact of a dual-threat QB and/or plus-scheme is clear when we look at the top offenses in yards before contact. Specifically, the Chiefs, Panthers, Bills, Packers and 49ers stand out as the league’s best offenses in consistently opening up gaping holes for their backs.
• Overall, the top four offenses in team-wide yards before contact per rush since 2015 have been: 2016 Bills (2.75), 2019 Cardinals (2.66), 2019 Ravens (2.48) and the 2015 Bills (2.45). This is good news for the Chargers’ chances at boasting a top-tier run game with Tyrod Taylor under center.
• Washington joins the Steelers, Jets, Buccaneers, Lions and Dolphins as the league’s consistently worst offenses in yards before contact per rush. Poor Le’Veon Bell.
• The Dolphins, Jets, Texans, Chargers, Bengals, Seahawks, Panthers, Browns and Jaguars are the only nine offenses to boast an average run-blocking grade outside of the top-20 offenses.
• The Rams were a top-five offense in run-block grade and yards before contact per rush in 2017-2018, but fell outside the top-25 in both categories in 2019. They curiously declined to add any sort of real competition to the group ahead of 2020.

Next we’ll check out the league’s recent history of pass protection goodness.

Pass blocking

Pressure and sacks tend to be more of a reflection on the team’s QB than the offensive line. Still, PFF pass-blocking grades account for this, and we can get a better idea of how much of the issue is the QB’s fault based on his average time to throw and pressure rate.

We’ll thus be breaking down the league’s top pass-blocking units based on the following two factors:

• PFF pass block grade rank
• Difference in rank between pressures allowed per dropback and average time to throw

The following chart denotes every team’s average rank in these categories from 2015-2019. A low average pass block grade indicates that the team has consistently graded out favorably in pass protection. A higher “Avg Diff in TTT and Pressure %” number also indicates the presence of a great offensive front, while a low negative figure in this category means that we should assign more blame to that team’s signal-caller.

A few takeaways:

• It’s no surprise to see the Packers, Steelers and Saints atop the list.
• The 2019 Browns marked the first time the team boasted a below-average pass protection grade over the past five years.
• The Ravens, Titans, Raiders, Eagles and Cowboys also stand out as offenses that have consistently provided superior pass-protection ability in recent history.
• 10 teams have posted an average pass-protection rank outside of the league’s top-20 groups since 2015: Bengals, Jets, Jaguars, Broncos, Giants, Dolphins, Vikings, Cardinals, Seahawks and Cardinals.
• Among that group, the Jaguars and Seahawks are the only two instances in which the QB should hold more of the blame.
• Of course, Russell Wilson’s tendency to hold onto the ball also brings the potential for plenty of big plays.

Russell Wilson is a godpic.twitter.com/DXs1yuc1np

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 21, 2020

• The Packers, Bills, Cowboys and Titans stand out as the top four offenses in which we should assign most of the blame from pressure to the QB.
• The Giants, Dolphins, Cardinals and particularly the Chargers are the league’s best examples of putrid offensive fronts that haven’t given their signal-caller a chance to succeed in recent seasons.

Next we’ll check out the league’s recent history of receiving prowess.

Receiving

Receivers are a bit of a product of their scheme, QB and individual ability. It can be a bit difficult to judge who is truly the better WR because of all of this. Hence the reason why fantasy twitter morphs into a Randy Moss vs. Jerry Rice GOAT debate once every few months.

Anyway, we’ll use the following three team-wide metrics to denote which teams have consistently boasted the best receiving groups:

• PFF receiving grade rank
• Drop rate rank
• Yards per route run rank

A few takeaways:

• The Buccaneers, Falcons, Saints, Chargers, Vikings and Seahawks stand out as the top-graded receiving rooms in the league over the past five years.
• This makes sense considering all six teams have fielded multiple talented pass-game options over the course of the past half decade.
• The Lions, Patriots, Chiefs and Steelers also stand out as teams that have boasted quality receiving rooms in recent years.
• The 11 offenses with an average receiving grade outside of the top-20 since 2015: Bears, Raiders, Broncos, Jaguars, Ravens, Eagles, Packers, Colts, Jets, Browns and Bills.
• The Jets, Raiders, Eagles, Browns, Bills and Colts are the only teams to also rank outside of the top-20 offenses in average drop rate rank.
• The Vikings, Titans and Saints have continuously utilized sure-handed receivers. They’re the league’s only three offenses with an average drop rate rank below 10.
• The Texans, Broncos, Jaguars, Colts, Jets, Browns, Ravens, Packers and Bills represent the league’s least-efficient passing games in terms of team-wide yards per route run over the past five seasons.
• The Saints, Chargers, Falcons and Patriots are the only offenses with average yards per route run ranks inside of the top-10 offenses.
• This is both a positive view for each team’s receivers, as well as a compliment to what the respective QBs and coaching staffs have been able to accomplish.
• Moral of the story: Draft Calvin Ridley in fantasy leagues of all shapes and sizes entering 2020.

Ballerpic.twitter.com/iuBJGqkjQc

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 20, 2020

Next we’ll check out the league’s recent history of rushing ability.

Rushing

RB production is perhaps the poster child of statistics that are heavily influenced by teammates. It’s close to impossible for any mere mortal to pick up yards without 1) A solid offensive line, and 2) A decent enough QB to prevent defenses from stacking the box.

We’ll thus determine the league’s top offenses in terms of RB production with the following three metrics:

• PFF rushing grade rank
• Yards after contact per attempt rank
• Miss forced tackles per attempt rank

A few takeaways:

• The Packers, Ravens, Seahawks, Cowboys and Chiefs represent the league’s top-five rushing offenses in terms of PFF rushing grades over the past five seasons.
• The Bills, Titans, Saints, Steelers and Rams also stand out as teams that have typically not had much trouble running the ball. 
• Give Zeke some credit: Nobody has boasted a higher average rank in yards after contact per attempt than the Cowboys since 2015.
• The Browns, Dolphins and Saints are the next three best offenses in average yards after contact per attempt.
• The Browns can thank Nick Chubb for their inclusion on this list.

Nick Chubb should be in any conversation about the best pure runners in da leaguepic.twitter.com/h5qsrmIo8j

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 2, 2020

• The Raiders, Titans, Dolphins, Browns and Seahawks stand out as the league’s best run games in consistently forcing missed tackles.
• On the other hand, the Colts, Bengals, Cardinals, Texans and Lions simply haven’t had many RBs capable of consistently racking up broken tackles over the past five seasons.
• The Bears, Patriots and Falcons join this group as teams that struggled to consistently pick up positive yardage after contact.
• Overall, the Buccaneers, Giants, Cardinals, Bears, Washington, Jaguars, Lions and Eagles are the only offenses with an average run game rank outside of the league’s top-20 offenses since 2015.

Next we’ll check out the league’s recent history of chucking the rock.

Passing

The success of a team’s passing attack is more isolated to a single player than arguably any other facet in the NFL with the exception of kickers (but screw those half-breeds).

We’ll use the following three metrics to determine which passing games have consistently thrived in recent history:

• PFF passing grade rank
• Yards per attempt rank
• Adjusted completion percentage rank

A few takeaways:

• The Vikings, Patriots, Bears (!!!), Lions and Steelers have been the top-five most-favorably graded passing games over the past five seasons. Note that the Bears have finished outside of the league’s top-24 passing games in back-to-back seasons and largely benefited from their run-first approach previously.
• Average yards per attempt rank paints a prettier picture of the league’s most-efficient passing offenses in recent seasons. The Saints, Seahawks, Chiefs, Falcons, Buccaneers, Chargers and Patriots are the only teams to boast an average rank inside the top-10 offenses.
• The Cowboys, Titans and Steelers are three additional offenses that have had stellar play under center more times than not.
• Friends don’t let friends believe the notion that Dak Prescott is anything less than great.

Dak Prescott is #good pic.twitter.com/dR9crAyhW3

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 18, 2020

• The Saints, Vikings, Falcons, Chiefs, Seahawks, Chargers and Patriots have been the league’s top offenses in terms of adjusted completion rate. This makes sense: Each team has seen pristine QB play for the majority of the past half decade.
• The Jets, Cardinals, Panthers, Bills, Browns and Buccaneers have been the league’s six least-accurate offenses in adjusted completion rate.
• Nobody has consistently ranked near the bottom of the league in yards per attempt than the Colts, Browns, Broncos, Jets and Ravens over the past five seasons.
• Overall, the Buccaneers, Broncos and Titans stand out as the league’s three worst offenses in consistently low PFF passing grades.

Complete Hartitz offseason series:

• Fantasy Football Top 150 PPR Rankings
• 32 fantasy football questions for all 32 NFL quarterbacks entering the 2020 NFL season
• Taking fantasy football stock of every NFL backfield entering the 2020 season
• Breaking down the fantasy football potential of all 32 NFL wide receiver rooms in 2020
• Fantasy Football: Which NFL tight ends have the best and worst chances of earning high-volume roles?
• Evaluating 2020 fantasy football winners and losers based on Weeks 1-4 strength of schedule
• Fantasy Football: The impact of players changing teams and how it will affect the likes of Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, DeAndre Hopkins and more
• How we can use playcaller tendencies to find fantasy football upside
• Fantasy football targets bound for positive regression after extremely unlucky seasons in 2019
• Fantasy Football: Rankings and projected roles for every 2020 rookie
• What's the “jump” year in fantasy football production at each position?
• Which defenses are worth concerning ourselves with for fantasy football?
• Fantasy Football: Breaking down every starting NFL quarterback based on mobility and rushing usage
• Top fantasy football values and fades in Hartitz rankings vs. ADP
• Fantasy Football: Ranking the continuity of all 32 NFL teams’ passing games