Week 6 DraftKings Sunday Night Football Showdown: Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers | Fantasy Football News, Rankings and Projections | PFF

Fantasy News & Analysis

Premium Content Sign Up

Week 6 DraftKings Sunday Night Football Showdown: Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (7) passes against the Denver Broncos during the first quarter at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The changing DFS and fantasy football landscape is shifting toward single-game contests. At DraftKings Sportsbook, the biggest is their Showdown Captain Mode format. The format blends the ease of focusing on a single game with the ability to differentiate yourself from the competition by choosing six players.

The biggest wrinkle of the format is the ability to choose one captain (CPT), who costs and is scored at 1.5 times the standard values. The CPT designation opens up another layer of strategy while exponentially increasing the number of possible lineup combinations, which is important for reducing duplicate winners and split prizes. I wrote a primer on playing this format, with details on historical positional trends and salary usage.

This season, I’m going to analyze all of the NFL’s “island” games (TNF, SNF and MNF) and playoff matchups, utilizing PFF’s weekly projections, current betting lines and millions of simulated historical combinations to identify the best and worst values for an upcoming matchup.


Click here for more PFF tools:

Rankings & ProjectionsWR/CB Matchup ChartNFL & NCAA Betting DashboardsNFL Player Props toolNFL & NCAA Power Rankings


There are five main components to this Week 6 Showdown slate analysis that you’ll find below:

  • A breakdown of methodology and the most similar historical matchup to Pittsburgh SteelersSeattle Seahawks as an illustration of the matching process: 2018 Week 16 Minnesota VikingsDetroit Lions, featuring Dalvin Cook as Najee Harris and Kenny Golladay playing the role of D.K. Metcalf.
  • Optimal lineup allocations (CPT and total roster) for both teams are based on the results of similar historical matchups.
  • Comparison of player ownership projections for FLEX and CPT produced by a model trained on 2018-2021 Showdown contest results to optimal allocations.
  • Recent CPT ownership trends are illustrated for both starting lineups.
  • A table showing the most common players on optimal lineups for each player. This allows you to see which other players are commonly found on the same optimal lineups as a player you’re interested in rostering.

Related content for you: NFL Week 6 Odds and Best Bets via Eric Eager and George Chahrouri

METHODOLOGY

To analyze this specific Showdown slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014 to 2021 and found the closest analogies to this contest according to the following parameters: Betting spread, over/under and average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

I won’t detail every matchup that falls into the top 100 for this game, but for illustration purposes, let’s look at the most similar matchup:

Historical Current
Player Pos Team Player Pos Team
Kirk Cousins QB MIN Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
Dalvin Cook RB MIN Najee Harris RB PIT
Stefon Diggs WR MIN Diontae Johnson WR PIT
Kyle Rudolph TE MIN Eric Ebron TE PIT
Matthew Stafford QB DET Geno Smith QB SEA
Theo Riddick RB DET Alex Collins RB SEA
Kenny Golladay WR DET DK Metcalf WR SEA
Levine Toilolo TE DET Gerald Everett TE SEA

The spread and over/under are similar in these matchups (Vikings -6.5 41.5 O/U versus this matchup at Steelers -5, 43 O/U). All the players aren’t perfect matches, but that’s why we use 100 similar matchups and not just the single most similar.

The optimal roster for that historical matchup, assuming positional salaries equaled what they are for this showdown slate, would have been:

Player Team Position Roster Position Fantasy Pts
Kyle Rudolph MIN TE CPT 36.2
Kirk Cousins MIN QB FLEX 22.2
Dalvin Cook MIN RB FLEX 13.8
Adam Thielen MIN WR FLEX 13.3
Kenny Golladay DET WR FLEX 11.8
Matt Prater DET K FLEX 11.0

For this game and 99 other similar matchups, I calculated every possible combination that fits with Showdown rules (one CPT, at least one offensive player from each team) and would fall under the $50K salary threshold, assuming the salaries for the historical similar matchups are the same as those for this contest.

Complete this survey to test PFF’s soon-to-be-released app!

CHOOSING THE RIGHT CAPTAIN

The most unique part of the format, and therefore the biggest opportunity for a competitive advantage, is choosing your CPT. Should you always choose a QB who typically has the highest absolute fantasy scoring? Are defenses and kickers viable options? RB versus WR?

Subscribe to PFF Edge to continue reading

Already have a subscription? Sign In

Tackle Lifes financial Challenges. Western Southern Financial Group.
Sponsor

Fantasy Featured Tools

  • Sort projected player stats and fantasy points by position, week, and category.

    Available with

    Edge
  • Available with

    Edge
  • PFF's Fantasy Football Expected Points tool is primarily used for identifying potential over and undervalued players.

    Available with

    Elite
  • Research past fantasy performance with sortable player stats including PFF-exclusives like aDOT and fantasy points per opportunity.

    Available with

    Edge
  • PFF’s Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position.

    Available with

    Edge
Pro Subscriptions

Unlock NFL Player Grades, Fantasy & NFL Draft

$9.99 / mo
$39.99 / yr

Unlock Premium Stats, PFF Greenline & DFS

$34.99 / mo
$199.99 / yr