Fantasy News & Analysis

Fantasy football mock drafts: 0.5 PPR after some big player news

OAKLAND, CA - AUGUST 19: Sammy Watkins #2 of the Los Angeles Rams warms up during pregame warm ups prior to playing the Oakland Raiders in an NFL preseason football game at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on August 19, 2017 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

We’re now just weeks away from the start of the NFL season and fantasy drafts are in full swing. Below is a 12-team, 16-man roster mock draft from the PFF staff. This latest mock was the first after several developments, including the Ezekiel Elliott suspension and the Sammy Watkins and Jordan Matthews trades. The scoring is also slightly different than most, with 0.5 PPR scoring but with usual roster allocations. Without further ado, the PFF mock draft, along with my thoughts on strategy and approach:

Round 1-2

1.01 Walton Spurlin David Johnson ARI RB
1.02 Daniel Kelley Le'Veon Bell PIT RB
1.03 Dan Schneier Antonio Brown PIT WR
1.04 Pat Thorman Julio Jones ATL WR
1.05 Tyler Buecher Odell Beckham NYG WR
1.06 Tyler Loechner Mike Evans TB WR
1.07 Dan Clasgens A.J. Green CIN WR
1.08 Michael Moore LeSean McCoy BUF RB
1.09 Scott Barrett Melvin Gordon LAC RB
1.10 Jeff Ratcliffe Devonta Freeman ATL RB
1.11 Mike Castiglione Michael Thomas NO WR
1.12 Joey Cartolano Jordy Nelson GB WR
2.01 Joey Cartolano Rob Gronkowski NE TE
2.02 Mike Castiglione Jordan Howard CHI RB
2.03 Jeff Ratcliffe Jay Ajayi MIA RB
2.04 Scott Barrett DeMarco Murray TEN RB
2.05 Michael Moore Amari Cooper OAK WR
2.06 Dan Clasgens Todd Gurley LAR RB
2.07 Tyler Loechner T.Y. Hilton IND WR
2.08 Tyler Buecher Dez Bryant DAL WR
2.09 Pat Thorman Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB
2.10 Dan Schneier Doug Baldwin SEA WR
2.11 Daniel Kelley Demaryius Thomas DEN WR
2.12 Walton Spurlin Leonard Fournette JAC RB

There were no real surprises in Round 1. You can’t go wrong with either David Johnson or Le’Veon Bell at the top of the draft. You also can’t go wrong with any of the elite receiving options that followed in Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones, or Antonio Brown, especially in a 0.5 PPR league. But the second round certainly got interesting, as the eventual landing spot for running back Ezekiel Elliott. Considered a top-three pick before his suspension, it’s uncertain how much he’ll actually play in 2017. It’s certainly a risk to make him your RB1 but Pat Thorman deemed the reward too high to pass. You can also see T.Y. Hilton starting to slip slightly in the wake of the injury bug taking over the Colts. Andrew Luck’s status for the beginning of the season is questionable and the offensive line isn’t doing backup Scott Tolzien any favors. The second also saw our first rookie off the board in Leonard Fournette, which was also a surprise since it’s a 0.5 PPR league and rookie backs like Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook were still available.

Round 3-4

3.01 Walton Spurlin Keenan Allen LAC WR
3.02 Daniel Kelley Alshon Jeffery PHI WR
3.03 Dan Schneier Isaiah Crowell CLE RB
3.04 Pat Thorman Lamar Miller HOU RB
3.05 Tyler Buecher Marshawn Lynch OAK RB
3.06 Tyler Loechner DeAndre Hopkins HOU WR
3.07 Dan Clasgens Brandin Cooks NE WR
3.08 Michael Moore Travis Kelce KC TE
3.09 Scott Barrett Dalvin Cook MIN RB
3.1 Jeff Ratcliffe Joe Mixon CIN RB
3.11 Mike Castiglione Tyreek Hill KC RB
3.12 Joey Cartolano Terrelle Pryor CLE WR
4.01 Joey Cartolano Christian McCaffrey CAR RB
4.02 Mike Castiglione Aaron Rodgers GB QB
4.03 Jeff Ratcliffe Allen Robinson JAC WR
4.04 Scott Barrett Golden Tate DET WR
4.05 Michael Moore Carlos Hyde SF RB
4.06 Dan Clasgens Ty Montgomery GB RB
4.07 Tyler Loechner Jordan Reed WAS TE
4.08 Tyler Buecher Sammy Watkins LAR WR
4.09 Pat Thorman Stefon Diggs MIN WR
4.1 Dan Schneier Tom Brady NE QB
4.11 Daniel Kelley Willie Snead NO WR
4.12 Walton Spurlin Jarvis Landry MIA WR

Round 3 saw two more rookie running backs in Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon, both the third running backs taken for Scott Barrett and Jeff Ratcliffe, respectively. By not relying on them to be one of their top running backs, their season won’t be torpedoed if they don’t work out. However, both backs are capable of quickly turning into RB1s by the end of the season, giving both Jeff and Scott excellent options. Round 3 also saw the second non-RB/WR taken in Travis Kelce. Early in draft season, it wasn’t surprising to see Jordan Reed taken ahead of Kelce but Reed was taken a whole round later this time around thanks to lingering injury concerns.

Another player whose stock dropped was the recently-traded Sammy Watkins. Regularly taken in the third round before his move to Los Angeles, the PFF staff isn’t as high on him now that Jared Goff is his quarterback.

Round 5-6

5.01 Walton Spurlin Kelvin Benjamin CAR WR
5.02 Daniel Kelley C.J. Anderson DEN RB
5.03 Dan Schneier Martavis Bryant PIT WR
5.04 Pat Thorman Mike Gillislee NE RB
5.05 Tyler Buecher Mark Ingram NO RB
5.06 Tyler Loechner Danny Woodhead BAL RB
5.07 Dan Clasgens Drew Brees NO QB
5.08 Michael Moore Davante Adams GB WR
5.09 Scott Barrett Emmanuel Sanders DEN WR
5.10 Jeff Ratcliffe Michael Crabtree OAK WR
5.11 Mike Castiglione Ameer Abdullah DET RB
5.12 Joey Cartolano Russell Wilson SEA QB
6.01 Joey Cartolano Doug Martin TB RB
6.02 Mike Castiglione Jamison Crowder WAS WR
6.03 Jeff Ratcliffe Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR
6.04 Scott Barrett Greg Olsen CAR TE
6.05 Michael Moore Spencer Ware KC RB
6.06 Dan Clasgens Eddie Lacy SEA RB
6.07 Tyler Loechner Tevin Coleman ATL RB
6.08 Tyler Buecher Julian Edelman NE WR
6.09 Pat Thorman Jimmy Graham SEA TE
6.1 Dan Schneier Paul Perkins NYG RB
6.11 Daniel Kelley Pierre Garcon SF WR
6.12 Walton Spurlin Theo Riddick DET RB

Round 5 might seem far removed from the first round, but there is still a lot of value to be had. For example, Jeff Ratcliffe took three running backs with his first three picks but took Allen Robinson in the fourth and, my favorite pick of the fifth, Michael Crabtree. Not many realize that Crabtree actually finished as a top-15 fantasy receiver in both standard scoring and PPR. The same goes for Emmanuel Sanders, a top-20 receiver no matter what type of scoring. Yet he’s being drafted in the fifth. Rounds 5 and 6 is also where you start to see teams fill in the rest of their fantasy roster. Two quarterbacks and two tight ends were taken over both rounds.

Round 7-8

7.01 Walton Spurlin Matt Ryan ATL QB
7.02 Daniel Kelley Bilal Powell NYJ RB
7.03 Dan Schneier Brandon Marshall NYG WR
7.04 Pat Thorman Donte Moncrief IND WR
7.05 Tyler Buecher Tyler Eifert CIN TE
7.06 Tyler Loechner Derrick Henry TEN RB
7.07 Dan Clasgens Frank Gore IND RB
7.08 Michael Moore Cameron Meredith CHI WR
7.09 Scott Barrett DeSean Jackson TB WR
7.10 Jeff Ratcliffe LeGarrette Blount PHI RB
7.11 Mike Castiglione DeVante Parker MIA WR
7.12 Joey Cartolano Eric Decker TEN WR
8.01 Joey Cartolano Adrian Peterson NO RB
8.02 Mike Castiglione Hunter Henry LAC TE
8.03 Jeff Ratcliffe Kyle Rudolph MIN TE
8.04 Scott Barrett Kenny Britt CLE WR
8.05 Michael Moore Duke Johnson CLE RB
8.06 Dan Clasgens Tyrell Williams LAC WR
8.07 Tyler Loechner Randall Cobb GB WR
8.08 Tyler Buecher Jeremy Maclin BAL WR
8.09 Pat Thorman John Brown ARI WR
8.10 Dan Schneier Rob Kelley WAS RB
8.11 Daniel Kelley Delanie Walker TEN TE
8.12 Walton Spurlin Zach Ertz PHI TE

In Rounds 7 and 8, we start to see non-starters who could turn into something. Derrick Henry, who racked up nearly 500 rushing yards on just 110 carries as a rookie, is in perhaps the best running situation east of the Mississippi should DeMarco Murray go down. That group also includes players like DeVante Parker, who, despite starting only eight games last year, finished second on the team in targets. Parker’s always teased fantasy owners with his skill set but has yet to put it together for a full season.

These two rounds also saw a lot of tight ends taken, five to be exact. After Gronk, Kelce or even Greg Olsen, there’s a logjam of capable, productive tight ends that are not much different than the others whether it’s Tyler Eifert, Zach Ertz, or Delanie Walker. All are TE1s but none are worth taking until the rest of your starting lineup is set.

My favorite pick of these two rounds was Frank Gore. Every year we think this is the last year Gore will be productive yet he keeps producing, finishing as a top-12 running back in standard scoring leagues last year. And yet, Dan Clasgens got him in the seventh.

Rounds 9-10

9.01 Walton Spurlin Jordan Matthews BUF WR
9.02 Daniel Kelley Terrance West BAL RB
9.03 Dan Schneier Corey Davis TEN WR
9.04 Pat Thorman Eric Ebron DET TE
9.05 Tyler Buecher Andrew Luck IND QB
9.06 Tyler Loechner Kareem Hunt KC RB
9.07 Dan Clasgens Adam Thielen MIN WR
9.08 Michael Moore Marvin Jones DET WR
9.09 Scott Barrett Ted Ginn, Jr NO WR
9.10 Jeff Ratcliffe Cam Newton CAR QB
9.11 Mike Castiglione C.J. Prosise SEA RB
9.12 Joey Cartolano Mike Wallace BAL WR
10.01 Joey Cartolano Jacquizz Rodgers TB RB
10.02 Mike Castiglione Corey Coleman CLE WR
10.03 Jeff Ratcliffe Jameis Winston TB QB
10.04 Scott Barrett Dak Prescott DAL QB
10.05 Michael Moore Marcus Mariota TEN QB
10.06 Dan Clasgens Martellus Bennett GB TE
10.07 Tyler Loechner Kirk Cousins WAS QB
10.08 Tyler Buecher Samaje Perine WAS RB
10.09 Pat Thorman Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB
10.10 Dan Schneier Thomas Rawls SEA RB
10.11 Daniel Kelley Giovani Bernard CIN RB
10.12 Walton Spurlin James White NE RB

Much like the previous two rounds were tight end-heavy, rounds 9 and 10 are quarterback-heavy, as it should be. Unless you can get an elite option at the position (i.e. Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, or Drew Brees), it’s just not worth it. Any one of Dak Prescott, Marcus Mariota, or Jameis Winston will be a viable option. Another one of those quarterbacks has seen quite the fall in recent weeks. Andrew Luck, taken in the fifth round in a previous PFF mock draft, falls to the ninth in this one. If it weren’t for a lingering shoulder injury, Luck would be right behind the likes of Brees or Brady, but now he’s squarely in the mid- to low end of QB1 territory.

Another mover is Jordan Matthews. Taken in the 11th round of the mock draft mentioned above, Matthews moved to Buffalo where he won’t be competing with Alshon Jeffery for targets. He has translated to a positive shift in his draft position.

Rounds 9 and 10 showed the value of having pass-catching backs in a 0.5 PPR league with C.J. Prosise, Giovani Bernard, and James White all taken. None are between the tackle running backs or do a lot of their damage in the passing game. In a standard league, none should be considered quite this high.

Round 11-13

11.01 Walton Spurlin Sterling Shepard NYG WR
11.02 Daniel Kelley Kevin White CHI WR
11.03 Dan Schneier Jonathan Stewart CAR RB
11.04 Pat Thorman Jonathan Williams BUF RB
11.05 Tyler Buecher Darren McFadden DAL RB
11.06 Tyler Loechner Jamaal Williams GB RB
11.07 Dan Clasgens Josh Doctson WAS WR
11.08 Michael Moore Darren Sproles PHI RB
11.09 Scott Barrett Matt Forte NYJ RB
11.10 Jeff Ratcliffe Zay Jones BUF WR
11.11 Mike Castiglione Jack Doyle IND TE
11.12 Joey Cartolano Devin Funchess CAR WR
12.01 Joey Cartolano Alvin Kamara NO RB
12.02 Mike Castiglione Marlon Mack IND RB
12.03 Jeff Ratcliffe Kenny Golladay DET WR
12.04 Scott Barrett Austin Hooper ATL TE
12.05 Michael Moore Derek Carr OAK QB
12.06 Dan Clasgens Jeremy HIll CIN RB
12.07 Tyler Loechner Rishard Matthews TEN WR
12.08 Tyler Buecher Rex Burkhead NE RB
12.09 Pat Thorman Tyler Lockett SEA WR
12.10 Dan Schneier Coby Fleener NO TE
12.11 Daniel Kelley Breshad Perriman BAL WR
12.12 Walton Spurlin Julius Thomas MIA QB
13.01 Walton Spurlin Matthews Stafford DET QB
13.02 Daniel Kelley Philip Rivers LAC QB
13.03 Dan Schneier Jamaal Charles DEN RB
13.04 Pat Thorman DeAndre Washington OAK RB
13.05 Tyler Buecher Andy Dalton CIN QB
13.06 Tyler Loechner D'Onta Foreman HOU RB
13.07 Dan Clasgens Kenny Stills MIA WR
13.08 Michael Moore Robby Anderson NYJ WR
13.09 Scott Barrett Shane Vereen NYG RB
13.10 Jeff Ratcliffe John Ross CIN WR
13.11 Mike Castiglione Carson Wentz PHI QB
13.12 Joey Cartolano Evan Engram NYG TE

This part of the draft is definite lottery ticket territory, especially at the running back position. Darren McFadden is slated to take over for Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas and is entering an ideal situation behind a top-five run-blocking offensive line and an ascending quarterback. It’s not unreasonable to expect McFadden to be a top-10 scoring running back during the weeks he starts. Rookie running backs Marlon Mack, Alvin Kamara, D’Onta Foreman, and Jamaal Williams will have the reverse path of McFadden, unlikely to see significant playing time early in the season but they could be a factor towards the end.

Rookies were not just represented at the running back position. From Zay Jones to Kenny Golladay to John Ross, there are several rookie receivers that could carve out a big role on their teams early on. It’s also interesting to note that Evan Engram was the first rookie tight end taken over O.J. Howard or David Njoku. Engram was a distant third when it came to rookie tight ends entering the NFL draft but he entered a pass-happy offense that drafted him specifically to be a pass-catching tight end.

Rounds 14-16

14.01 Joey Cartolano Dion Lewis NE RB
14.02 Mike Castiglione Seattle Seahawks SEA DEF
14.03 Jeff Ratcliffe Kenyan Drake MIA RB
14.04 Scott Barrett Tyrod Taylor BUF QB
14.05 Michael Moore Jason Witten DAL TE
14.06 Dan Clasgens Torrey Smith PHI WR
14.07 Tyler Loechner Paul Richardson SEA TE
14.08 Tyler Buecher Anquan Boldin BUF WR
14.09 Pat Thorman J.J. Nelson ARI WR
14.1 Dan Schneier Cooper Kupp LAR WR
14.11 Daniel Kelley Eli Manning NYG QB
14.12 Walton Spurlin Denver Broncos DEN DEF
15.01 Walton Spurlin Justin Tucker BAL K
15.02 Daniel Kelley Houston Texans HOU DEF
15.03 Dan Schneier Kansas City Chiefs KC DEF
15.04 Pat Thorman Carson Palmer ARI QB
15.05 Tyler Buecher De'Angelo Henderson DEN RB
15.06 Tyler Loechner Stephen Gostowski NE K
15.07 Dan Clasgens Minnesota Vikings MIN DEF
15.08 Michael Moore New England Patriots NE DEF
15.09 Scott Barrett Austin Seferian-Jenkins NYJ TE
15.1 Jeff Ratcliffe Matt Bryant ATL K
15.11 Mike Castiglione James Conner PIT RB
15.12 Joey Cartolano Jeremy McNichols TB RB
16.01 Joey Cartolano Chris Hogan NE WR
16.02 Mike Castiglione Mason Crosby GB K
16.03 Jeff Ratcliffe Philadelphia Eagles PHI DEF
16.04 Scott Barrett Cole Beasley DAL WR
16.05 Michael Moore Dan Bailey DAL K
16.06 Dan Clasgens Adam Vinatieri IND K
16.07 Tyler Loechner Arizona Cardinals ARI DEF
16.08 Tyler Buecher ArDarius Stewart NYJ WR
16.09 Pat Thorman Nelson Agholor PHI WR
16.1 Dan Schneier New York Giants NYG DEF
16.11 Daniel Kelley Sebastian Janikowski OAK K
16.12 Walton Spurlin Jalen Richard OAK RB

And last but not least, we get to kickers and defenses. In this case, the first defense went to Mike Castiglione at 14.02. I may be in the minority but I’m all for taking the top kickers and/or defense a tad earlier than conventional wisdom says, which is normally the last two rounds. By doing that, it allows you to take some super lottery ticket position players. For example, Mike was able to take James Conner, the presumed backup to stud Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell in the 15th round. As we saw with DeAngelo Williams in the past, the Steelers running back position can be very lucrative, no matter which player is there.

Of course, you could also go the route some of our writers did and just wait until after the draft to pick up your kickers and defenses. Unless you’re getting an elite defense or kicker, say the Seahawks defense or Stephen Gostkowski, it’s not crazy to keep drafting position players until the very end. This way, you can maximize the number of lottery tickets while letting the pre-season sort out who will and will not be contributing early in the season. Whether it’s a surprise cut or, God forbid, an injury, crazy things happen in the days before the season starts and it doesn’t hurt to cover as many bases as possible. Then, you can make a more informed decision on who to cut and go get your kicker and defense to start the season.

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