In this series of articles, I’m looking at the breakout potential for running backs available in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts. This builds on my recent breakout receiver articles, where I profiled each of the second-year wide receivers. My research on 10 years of historical data points to second- and third-year backs as the most likely to break out from middling draft positions. They are also the most likely to generate the most excess value. This article will focus on Chicago Bears running back David Montgomery, currently the RB26 in best-ball drafts. You can find the rest of the articles on breakout running backs here.
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One of the best ways to determine the range of outcomes and the probability of success for fantasy players is comparing them to similar historical players. In this analysis, I’ll compare Montgomery to hundreds of running backs drafted since 2006 and project the likelihood of his breakout based on those who had the most similar size, draft position and rookie metrics.
I’ll especially focus on the receiving potential for these backs, as the outperformance in receiving volume and efficiency has been the most common trait for breakout running backs in the past.