Identifying and drafting the right breakout wide receiver can be the difference between winning your fantasy football league or suffering the ridicule of your league mates.
Sometimes receivers can break out later in their career, but most often the jump happens in their second year. Almost every season you can find a top fantasy receiver outside of the top-15 taken in fantasy football drafts, and many have been second-year breakouts, like JuJu Smith-Schuster (2018), Tyreek Hill (2017), Allen Robinson II (2015), Josh Gordon (2013), Hakeem Nicks (2010), DeSean Jackson (2009), Calvin Johnson (2008) and Greg Jennings (2007).
In this series of articles, I'm looking at the breakout potential for second-year wide receivers. One of the best ways to determine the range of outcomes and the probability of success for fantasy players is comparing them to similar historical players. In these analyses, I'll compare the second-year receivers to hundreds of others drafted since 2006 and project the likelihood of their breakout based on those who had the most similar size, college production, draft position and rookie metrics.
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