Fantasy News & Analysis

NFL Week 5 DFS tournament picks

October 3, 2021; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance (5) runs the football against the Seattle Seahawks during the third quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

In order to win a DFS tournament, it is essential to build a unique roster that embraces the randomness within each NFL game. We must identify players and game scenarios the rest of the field is overlooking because when these low-owned plays hit, rosters soar past the competition and into first place.

Chase Edmonds was the top play last week, as he piled up 120 rushing yards and 20.9 DraftKings points at only 5% rostership. Conversely, Baker Mayfield repeatedly missed a wide-open Odell Beckham Jr. for multiple should-have-been touchdowns. Pain.

 Here are the Week 5 DFS tournament picks. Be sure to check out PFF's projected DFS rostership percentages and DFS lineup optimizer to help you rack up those massive scores.

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QB Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers: 2% projected rostership

The No. 3 overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft will make his starting debut against the undefeated Arizona Cardinals in Week 5. He looked extremely overwhelmed when he took over from the injured Jimmy Garoppolo last week but still managed a whopping 20.4 fantasy points in the second half alone. He is extremely cheap at $5,700 on DraftKings and $6,900 on FanDuel.

Expect the field to be skittish about playing a rookie quarterback after Justin Fields flopped in his starting debut just two weeks ago. However, this is a completely different situation because the 49ers boast one of the league’s premier offensive minds in Kyle Shanahan, along with an elite group of skill players who can do an untold amount of damage after the catch. Through four weeks, Deebo Samuel has tallied a league-high 271 yards after the catch, while George Kittle ranks second among tight ends with 163.

Having the kind of playmakers who can add explosive plays after the catch can make life easy on a rookie quarterback — and fantasy points before and after the catch count all the same.

Additionally, the 49ers signal-caller is a dynamic runner — last week, he posted 41 rushing yards on seven carries in the second half alone. Kyle Shanahan should design quarterback runs to help Lance build his confidence and rack up production against a Cardinals defense that has allowed a league-high 5.4 rushing yards per attempt.

PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.

RB D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions: 7% projected rostership

Swift is the PPR RB7 this season yet is priced at only $6,100 on DraftKings (RB13) and $6,900 on FanDuel (RB16). The Lions' star running back is dominating as a receiver, where he is totaling monster production:

Stat Rank among RBs
PFF receiving grade 83.7 4th
Targets 28 2nd
Catches 23 2nd
Yards 199 2nd
Yards after catch 230 1st

The second-year running back is playing 66% of his team's snaps this season, even though he trails teammate Jamaal Williams in total rushing attempts by one, 42 to 41. However, we are playing Swift for his receiving role, not his rushing role.

The Lions are 9.5-point underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings and should be in pass-happy catchup mode straight from the jump. This is the perfect game script for Swift to eat up fantasy production as Detroit tries to keep pace with the explosive Minnesota offense.

Swift is the consensus RB9 in PFF’s fantasy rankings this week. He can be played as a one-off piece or in a correlated pairing with Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen or Dalvin Cook.

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RB Damien Harris, New England Patriots: 2% projected rostership

The Patriots are 8.5-point road favorites against the hapless Houston Texans — expect New England to control this game and ground-and-pound their way to a comfortable victory. This likely game script could easily see Harris post 100 rushing yards and a touchdown at only $5,500 on DraftKings and $6,500 on FanDuel.

Here is the Patriots rushing attempt split among running backs this season:

Player Rush attempts
Damien Harris 49
James White 10
Brandon Bolden 5
J.J. Taylor 4
Rhamondre Stevenson 1

This is clearly Harris’ backfield, and he should get all the work he can handle against a leaky Texans run defense that has faced the fifth-most attempts (124) for the seventh-most yards (541), eighth-most yards after contact (331) and the most touchdowns (8) among defenses.

Houston’s offense has been completely inept with Davis Mills under center, too. Over the last two weeks, they have been the stone worst offense in the NFL in total plays (91), yards per play (3.2), first downs created (20), touchdowns scored (1) and points scored (9).

If the Texans cannot sustain drives, the Patriots should control the football for most of the game. A Harris and Patriots DST stack makes a lot of sense in this matchup.

PFF's Player Props Tool leverages PFF's Fantasy Football Projections to reveal betting opportunities within player prop markets.

WR Marvin Jones Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars: 4% projected rostership

Despite busting last week, Marvin Jones Jr. remains the Jaguars' No. 1 wide receiver and ranks as the overall WR27 this season. He is Jacksonville’s top downfield weapon and should see an uptick in targets with D.J. Chark Jr. injured.

The Titans defense has been torched on passes thrown beyond 20 yards downfield this season:

Stat Rank
Completions allowed 12 32nd
Yards allowed 481 32nd
Yards allowed per pass attempt 24.1 32nd
Touchdowns 4 32nd

Jets quarterback Zach Wilson looked completely lost as an NFL passer before last week, but apparently all he needed was a matchup against this slumping Titans secondary to unlock his deep ball. The Jets quarterback completed four of his five deep passes for one score and a league-leading 165 deep passing yards in Week 4.

Here are Jones' deep receiving stats since 2020:

Stats Rank
Targets 32 8th
Catches 13 8th
Touchdowns 4 6th
Passer rating generated 122 12th

He should dominate this matchup as the Jaguars try to keep pace with a high-powered Titans offense. Consider pairing Jones Jr. with Derrick Henry to differentiate your Big Dog rosters while maximizing upside.


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