In order to win a DFS tournament, it is essential to build a unique roster that embraces the randomness within each NFL game. We must identify players and game scenarios the rest of the field is overlooking because when these low-owned plays hit, rosters soar past the competition and into first place.
We nailed projections for Austin Ekeler and Tyler Higbee last week, as they each found the end zone en route to tournament-winning fantasy performances. And though Dalvin Cook did not play, the process was spot on, with Alexander Mattison steamrolling the Seattle Seahawks for 171 total yards.
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OBJ made his long-awaited return last week and instantly received true WR1 usage, running a route on 85% of passing snaps while drawing a 32% target share and a 49% air-yard share.
Week 4 presents an interesting opportunity for the veteran pass-catcher, as he will likely be facing off against a seemingly washed-up Patrick Peterson who has allowed 182 yards and a 157.9 passer rating into his coverage this year, the sixth- and third-worst marks among qualifying cornerbacks, respectively.
D.K. Metcalf just shredded Peterson and company to the tune of six catches for 107 yards and a score. Expect a similar performance from OBJ this week at the bargain price of $5,800 on DraftKings and $6,600 on FanDuel.
The PFF Projections have OBJ as the WR18 this week.
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As painful as it is, let’s go right back to the Chicago Bears well in a significantly easier matchup against the Detroit Lions. Robinson is far too cheap — $5,800 on DraftKings and $6,400 on FanDuel — for such a talented player with this week’s second-highest-rated WR/CB matchup.
Robinson has arguably had to suffer through the worst quarterback luck of any wide receiver in the modern NFL, yet he racks up elite production year after year. He is simply too skilled a pass-catcher to continue slumping through the season — a breakout performance is coming.
Detroit has allowed a 100-yard receiver in each game this season
- Mark Andrews: five catches for 109 yards
- Davante Adams: eight catches for 121 yards
- Deebo Samuel: nine catches for 189 and one touchdown
Additionally, Hollywood Brown dropped multiple should-have-been touchdowns last week. Long story short: This matchup could not be any better for Chicago’s alpha wide receiver.
Of course, a strong performance here would require the Bears to put together a competent offensive game plan, which is a significant undertaking for the embattled Matt Nagy and his staff. However, Bill Lazor is expected to take over playcalling duties after leading the Bears offense to multiple strong performances down the stretch last season. Perhaps that is the spark needed to get Fields and Robinson going.
The process here is simple: Embrace the ugliness of the Robinson play with the understanding that he is an elite talent in a dream matchup. Ignore all the other noise in this get-right spot and take the discount at low ownership.
The PFF Projections have Robinson as the WR23 this week.
Vegas is expecting fireworks in this Cardinals vs. Rams game, as the 55-point total is tops on the board in Week 4. This is a game to stack up in DFS.
The Rams boast an elite offense and should have no trouble lighting up the scoreboard against this Cardinals defense. Accordingly, the likeliest game script sees Kyler Murray and company airing it out to keep pace with Matthew Stafford. Giovani Bernard parlayed this same matchup into a nine-catch, 51-yard, one-score outing for 20.1 PPR fantasy points last week.
Edmonds is a key cog in the Cardinals offense. He plays 63% of snaps and has a team-high 16 receptions. Yes, he is ceding carries to James Conner, but we are rostering Edmonds in this spot for his receiving role.
Consider pairing Edmonds with one of the quarterbacks in this game. Both Murray and Stafford carry a strong correlation with the dynamic Cardinals running back.
The PFF Projections have Edmonds as the RB23 this week.
It appears that Aiyuk has finally escaped the dreaded doghouse of Kyle Shanahan. The second-year receiver saw a major utilization uptick, with a 90% route rate, 17% target share and 22% air yard share in his return as a full-time player last week.
This 49ers vs. Seahawks game holds a hefty 51.5-point total. Both of their matchups last season ended up being shootouts that yielded 49 and 64 total points.
Aiyuk went off in the first matchup (he missed Game 2), tallying an 8-91-1 receiving line. I have zero interest in playing the Shanahan running back roulette wheel, so let’s target the passing offense with the uber-talented pass-catcher at an affordable $5,000 on DraftKings and $5,700 on FanDuel.
Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are stronger plays on paper, but they will see considerably higher rostership at an added price tag. Aiyuk offers cheap access to a high total while also providing leverage against two of the most popular plays on the entire main DFS slate.
Bank on the talent and hope that the former first-round draft pick continues his ascent to stardom.