To win a DFS tournament, building a unique roster that embraces the randomness within each NFL game is essential. We must identify players and game scenarios the rest of the field is overlooking so that when these low-rostered plays hit, rosters soar past the competition and into first place.
We had two monster hits last week, with Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham Jr. posting massive games. In fact, the Matthew Stafford-Beckham stack we highlighted was in the Millionaire Maker winning lineup on DraftKings, with Stafford at only 3% rostership and Beckham at 8% rostership. That is the optimal outcome we are hunting for in this article every week.
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RB Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team (6% projected rostership)
Despite posting his best performance of the season on Monday Night Football, Gibson is checking in with extremely low rostership projections — an affordable $5,700 on DraftKings and $6,200 on FanDuel. It seems as though DFS players cannot shake off the stigma of Gibson’s early-season struggles when the reality is that the Washington back is seeing top-notch utilization.
Keep feeding Antonio Gibson ????️ pic.twitter.com/WQjNlILDNk
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 30, 2021
Jonathan Taylor and Joe Mixon are priced at $9,200 and $8,100 on DraftKings, respectively, so the Gibson option offers enormous savings for a player who is seeing an abundance of rushing opportunities in Washington.
Gibson possesses a strong matchup against a Raiders rush defense that ranks in the bottom 10 of most metrics.
Raiders defense: Run-defense stats in 2021
|315 attempts faced||23rd|
|1,384 rushing yards allowed||24th|
|4.4 yards allowed per carry||22nd|
|11 touchdowns allowed||24th|
|37 runs of 10-plus yards allowed||24th|
Also, remember J.D. McKissic left last week’s game on a cart and is currently dealing with a concussion. Even if McKissic plays, he will probably handle a reduced workload, opening up extra targets for Gibson one week after the second-year back saw a career-high seven targets.
Rostering Gibson provides added salary flexibility to pay up for other studs on this slate. This looks like an ideal week to use a running back like Gibson in the flex spot for three-back builds.
QB Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (5% projected rostership)
The Vikings' skill players will be massive chalk this week — Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen carry two of the highest projected rostership among all wide receivers, along with Alexander Mattison at running back. Why does nobody want to play Cousins?
Minnesota should be able to do whatever they want against a hapless Lions defense. Their team total is currently listed at a whopping 27.5 points, and there is a strong chance the Vikings account for four-plus touchdowns in this spot. Would it be so crazy for four of these touchdowns to come via their starting quarterback?
The Lions' defense has faced a league-low 340 pass attempts, but they allow a league-high 8.3 yards per pass attempt. Though teams typically attack Detroit via the ground, the matchup via the air is just as easy for opposing offenses.
Stack up Cousins with two of his teammates and watch the fantasy points roll in.
WR D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (6% projected rostership)
The narrative surrounding Metcalf could not be any worse after his one-catch, 14-yard performance on Monday Night Football. After all, he did not even see a single target in the first half.
The star wide receiver is overpriced for his current role, at $6,700 on DraftKings and $7,300 on FanDuel. However, that is exactly what makes him an elite DFS tournament play this week.
Metcalf is the prototypical boom-or-bust wide receiver we want to play when nobody else is on him and fade when he is highly rostered. He can crush your roster with a two-point fantasy score, but he can also catapult you to the top of the leaderboard with 100 yards and multiple touchdowns in any given matchup.
Metcalf is no stranger to slate-breaking scores against the 49ers — last season, he smashed them for a ridiculous 12-161-2 receiving line in a shootout that resulted in a 37-27 Seahawks victory. An interesting takeaway from that game is that Brandon Aiyuk also went off for an 8-91-1 performance.
The Seahawks' defense has been very fantasy-friendly this season. Every single opponent except the Jaguars featured one or more smash players who posted a tournament-winning score. Check out these player stat lines vs. the Seahawks:
- Antonio Gibson: 29-111 rushing and 7-35 receiving
- Zach Ertz: 8-88-2 receiving
- AJ Dillon: 21-66-2 rushing and 2-62 receiving
- Alvin Kamara: 20-51 rushing and 10-128-1 receiving
- Najee Harris: 24-81 rushing and 6-46-1 receiving
- Robert Woods: 12-150 receiving
- Deebo Samuel: 8-156-2 receiving
- Alexander Mattison: 26-112 rushing and 6-59 receiving
- Justin Jefferson: 9-118-1 receiving
- Derrick Henry: 35-182-3 rushing and 6-55 receiving
- Zach Pascal: 4-43-2 receiving
Aiyuk, Elijah Mitchell and George Kittle will all rightfully carry high rostership this week, given the extraordinary matchup. You can differentiate your lineup by pairing one or multiple 49ers with Metcalf and correlate for maximum upside if this game turns into a high-scoring affair.