Fantasy News & Analysis

NFL Week 13 DFS Tournament Picks

Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Football Team running back Antonio Gibson (24) stiff arms Seattle Seahawks cornerback Sidney Jones IV (23) while carries the ball during the third quarter at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

To win a DFS tournament, building a unique roster that embraces the randomness within each NFL game is essential. We must identify players and game scenarios the rest of the field is overlooking so that when these low-rostered plays hit, rosters soar past the competition and into first place.

We had two monster hits last week, with Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham Jr. posting massive games. In fact, the Matthew Stafford-Beckham stack we highlighted was in the Millionaire Maker winning lineup on DraftKings, with Stafford at only 3% rostership and Beckham at 8% rostership. That is the optimal outcome we are hunting for in this article every week.

Here are this week's DFS tournament picks. Be sure to check out PFF's projected DFS rostership percentages and DFS lineup optimizer to help you rack up those massive scores.

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RB Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team (6% projected rostership)

Despite posting his best performance of the season on Monday Night Football, Gibson is checking in with extremely low rostership projections — an affordable $5,700 on DraftKings and $6,200 on FanDuel. It seems as though DFS players cannot shake off the stigma of Gibson’s early-season struggles when the reality is that the Washington back is seeing top-notch utilization.

Jonathan Taylor and Joe Mixon are priced at $9,200 and $8,100 on DraftKings, respectively, so the Gibson option offers enormous savings for a player who is seeing an abundance of rushing opportunities in Washington.

Gibson possesses a strong matchup against a Raiders rush defense that ranks in the bottom 10 of most metrics. 

Raiders defense: Run-defense stats in 2021
Stat Rank
315 attempts faced 23rd
1,384 rushing yards allowed 24th
4.4 yards allowed per carry 22nd
11 touchdowns allowed 24th
37 runs of 10-plus yards allowed 24th

Also, remember J.D. McKissic left last week’s game on a cart and is currently dealing with a concussion. Even if McKissic plays, he will probably handle a reduced workload, opening up extra targets for Gibson one week after the second-year back saw a career-high seven targets.

Rostering Gibson provides added salary flexibility to pay up for other studs on this slate. This looks like an ideal week to use a running back like Gibson in the flex spot for three-back builds.

QB Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (5% projected rostership)

The Vikings' skill players will be massive chalk this week — Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen carry two of the highest projected rostership among all wide receivers, along with Alexander Mattison at running back. Why does nobody want to play Cousins?

Minnesota should be able to do whatever they want against a hapless Lions defense. Their team total is currently listed at a whopping 27.5 points, and there is a strong chance the Vikings account for four-plus touchdowns in this spot. Would it be so crazy for four of these touchdowns to come via their starting quarterback?

The Lions' defense has faced a league-low 340 pass attempts, but they allow a league-high 8.3 yards per pass attempt. Though teams typically attack Detroit via the ground, the matchup via the air is just as easy for opposing offenses.

Stack up Cousins with two of his teammates and watch the fantasy points roll in.

PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals betting opportunities (“edges”) within game bet and player prop markets. The higher the edge, the greater the opportunity.

WR D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (6% projected rostership)

The narrative surrounding Metcalf could not be any worse after his one-catch, 14-yard performance on Monday Night Football. After all, he did not even see a single target in the first half. 

The star wide receiver is overpriced for his current role, at $6,700 on DraftKings and $7,300 on FanDuel. However, that is exactly what makes him an elite DFS tournament play this week.

Metcalf is the prototypical boom-or-bust wide receiver we want to play when nobody else is on him and fade when he is highly rostered. He can crush your roster with a two-point fantasy score, but he can also catapult you to the top of the leaderboard with 100 yards and multiple touchdowns in any given matchup.

Metcalf is no stranger to slate-breaking scores against the 49ers — last season, he smashed them for a ridiculous 12-161-2 receiving line in a shootout that resulted in a 37-27 Seahawks victory. An interesting takeaway from that game is that Brandon Aiyuk also went off for an 8-91-1 performance.

The Seahawks' defense has been very fantasy-friendly this season. Every single opponent except the Jaguars featured one or more smash players who posted a tournament-winning score. Check out these player stat lines vs. the Seahawks:

Aiyuk, Elijah Mitchell and George Kittle will all rightfully carry high rostership this week, given the extraordinary matchup. You can differentiate your lineup by pairing one or multiple 49ers with Metcalf and correlate for maximum upside if this game turns into a high-scoring affair.

Do not forget about Tyler Lockett either, as he carries equally enormous upside. Both Seahawks receivers boast highly rated WR/CB matchups and make for an excellent roster pairing with 49ers players.

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