Fantasy News & Analysis

NFL Week 12 DFS tournament picks

Tampa, Florida, USA; New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (26) warms up prior to a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

To win a DFS tournament, building a unique roster that embraces the randomness within each NFL game is essential. We must identify players and game scenarios the rest of the field is overlooking so that when these low-rostered plays hit, rosters soar past the competition and into first place.

Here are this week's DFS tournament picks. Be sure to check out PFF's projected DFS rostership percentages and DFS lineup optimizer to help you rack up those massive scores.

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WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts

The Colts' star receiver has been boom-or-bust this season. Check out his production over the last five games: 

Game Stats
Week 11 2-23 for 4.3 DraftKings points
Week 10 5-71 for 12. DraftKings points
Week 9 5-64-1 for 17.4 DraftKings points
Week 8 10-86-2 for 30.6 DraftKings points
Week 7 4-105-1 for 23.5 DraftKings points

Chase the boom this week because his high end is more than worth the $5,600 salary on DraftKings.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense is a major pass funnel, as they have the No. 1 run defense in the NFL. Opposing offenses generally abandon the run against them and are averaging a healthy 39.3 pass attempts per game.

The Colts are unlikely to forget about superstar running back Jonathan Taylor, but Carson Wentz should rack up extra volume here. Wentz has topped 39 pass attempts just once all season, and it was back in Week 8 when Pittman smashed for those 30 fantasy points.

This game carries a hefty 53-point total and is the only game above 50 on the main slate. Game stacks with any of the Bucs wide receivers or Leonard Fournette make a lot of sense here.

Pittman checks in as high as WR14 in PFF's Week 12 fantasy rankings.

PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals betting opportunities (“edges”) within game bet and player prop markets. The higher the edge, the greater the opportunity.

RB Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

The Giants were an offensive trainwreck against the Bucs last Monday night, and it resulted in the firing of embattled offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. The image of an inept Giants offense will be fresh in the mind of the field, and nobody will want to play anyone on that team.

That leads us to Barkley, who is priced down at $6,300 on DraftKings. The Giants running back registered a 67% snap rate in his first game back from a serious ankle injury and also tallied 12 touches. His workload should only increase with another game to get healthier and back into game shape.

Philadelphia has been a sieve against the run this season despite their strong reputation for stout run defense. Here is the production the Eagles have allowed to opposing running backs: 

Stat Rank
312 rushing attempts 31st
1,282 rushing yards 27th
874 rushing yards after contact 30th
12 touchdowns 28th

Freddie Kitchens is New York’s interim offensive coordinator, and it would make sense for him to feature Barkley in this divisional showdown. Bet on talent and matchup here by buying low on the Giants superstar — perhaps this is his 2021 breakout performance.

WR Odell Beckham Jr. and Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams

Rams vs. Packers will be an exciting showdown that could preview the 2021 NFC Championship Game. Surprisingly, the Packers are a one-point home underdog in a game with a 47-point total. If this game stays close throughout, it could easily blow past that number, similar to last week’s Packers vs. Vikings game.

Cooper Kupp’s price is skyrocketing out of control, so it will be difficult to pay the hefty $9,600 on DraftKings and $9,500 on FanDuel. Instead, save some salary with Beckham and Jefferson, who also boast massive upside with multi-touchdown potential.

The Packers defense has faced 52 deep targets (passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield) through 11 weeks, the third-most among defenses. Matthew Stafford has 18 deep completions (fifth) and four touchdowns (eighth) — perhaps he connects with OBJ or Jefferson on a bomb or two.

You can play these wide receivers as one-off pieces or paired together, with or without Stafford. Consider also using a Packers running back or wide receiver in this lineup.

Here are the details on all WR/CB matchups for Week 12.

 QB Jalen Hurts and TE Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts is blossoming into a fantasy superstar in his second season and currently ranks as the overall QB1 in fantasy points. He is accomplishing this with top-level production on the ground — he's already racked up 616 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns.

The Eagles quarterback is simply too cheap for his upside at $7,300 on DraftKings and $8,400 on FanDuel. He has been a top-12 fantasy quarterback in every single game of his career in which he has played all four quarters. There is no better combination of floor and ceiling in fantasy football.

The matchup is middling against a solid but unspectacular Giants defense that boasts PFF’s 25th-ranked run defense and 22nd-ranked pass defense. Hurts should be able to carve them up any way he chooses.

While the obvious stacking partner is DeVonta Smith, I would rather knock out the tight end position and pair Hurts with Dallas Goedert, who is due for a monster game. Goedert had a touchdown negated last week but did haul in five balls for 62 yards on eight targets. There is multi-touchdown upside here if everything comes together.

Playing Goedert gives you a chance at a 25-point score at a position where every other player could realistically fail to top 20 points. There is no Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews or Darren Waller on this slate, which makes a smash performance by Goedert even more valuable at his affordable price.

Goedert possesses the fifth-best tight end matchup this week. Fantasy projections are high on Goedert, ranking him as the overall TE6.

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