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DFS Data Dive: Hunting Week 3's best stacks

Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) scores a touchdown on a pass from quarterback Kirk Cousins (not pictured) against the Green Bay Packers during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Estimated reading time: 10 minutes

This analysis of DFS main-slate stacks is a variation of the methodology used in analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates. It uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each team’s QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE, QB-RB-WR stacks will be the highest scoring of the slate. These are some of the most popular stack combinations employed in DFS strategy.

The numbers below are harnessing the unexpected connections and reactions between players that have actually happened over the past several years and thereby points to under/overvalued stacks that won’t be identified through traditional projections and logical deduction.

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QUARTERBACK/WIDE RECEIVER STACK

QB/WR players
Team Opponent Highest % Player Pos DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
LA ARZ 8.4 Matthew Stafford QB 22.4 6,500 20.7 7,700
LA ARZ 8.4 Cooper Kupp WR 23.9 9,900 18.5 9,800
KC IND 7.8 Patrick Mahomes QB 24.9 7,900 23.2 8,700
KC IND 7.8 Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR 12.8 4,700 10.6 5,600
LAC JAX 6.4 Justin Herbert QB 25.0 7,400 23.4 8,200
LAC JAX 6.4 Keenan Allen WR 16.3 6,500 12.6 7,500
DET MIN 6.2 Jared Goff QB 15.8 5,800 14.8 7,100
DET MIN 6.2 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR 15.1 7,200 11.5 7,800
ATL SEA 5.8 Marcus Mariota QB 21.4 5,500 19.9 7,300
ATL SEA 5.8 Drake London WR 15.1 5,800 11.8 6,000
BUF MIA 5.7 Josh Allen QB 28.4 8,200 26.4 9,000
BUF MIA 5.7 Stefon Diggs WR 19.8 7,700 15.5 8,300
BLT NE 4.8 Lamar Jackson QB 22.7 8,000 21.3 8,600
BLT NE 4.8 Rashod Bateman WR 11.5 5,700 9.2 6,800
PHI WAS 4.7 Jalen Hurts QB 24.8 7,600 23.2 8,100
PHI WAS 4.7 A.J. Brown WR 15.5 7,300 12.5 8,000
LV TEN 4.7 Derek Carr QB 18.6 5,900 17.2 7,100
LV TEN 4.7 Davante Adams WR 17.2 8,400 13.4 8,700
ARZ LA 4.7 Kyler Murray QB 21.3 7,300 20.1 7,800
ARZ LA 4.7 Marquise Brown WR 13.6 6,000 10.7 7,000
NYJ CIN 4.6 Joe Flacco QB 17.8 5,300 16.5 6,800
NYJ CIN 4.6 Garrett Wilson WR 11.6 5,400 9.3 6,100
MIN DET 4.5 Kirk Cousins QB 21.9 6,700 20.3 7,600
MIN DET 4.5 Justin Jefferson WR 23.2 9,300 18.2 9,500
CIN NYJ 4.3 Joe Burrow QB 22.9 6,600 21.2 7,500
CIN NYJ 4.3 Ja'Marr Chase WR 18.9 8,100 15.1 8,500
TEN LV 4.3 Ryan Tannehill QB 18.1 5,700 17.2 7,200
TEN LV 4.3 Robert Woods WR 10.7 5,000 8.3 5,700
GB TB 3.7 Aaron Rodgers QB 20.1 6,400 18.7 7,400
GB TB 3.7 Allen Lazard WR 11.3 6,000 9.1 6,200
NO CAR 3.6 Jameis Winston QB 15.0 5,200 14.1 6,900
NO CAR 3.6 Michael Thomas WR 12.5 5,900 9.8 7,300
MIA BUF 3.1 Tua Tagovailoa QB 18.8 6,100 17.5 7,300
MIA BUF 3.1 Tyreek Hill WR 19.7 7,600 15.6 8,400
CHI HST 2.8 Justin Fields QB 17.8 5,600 16.7 7,000
CHI HST 2.8 Darnell Mooney WR 10.6 5,300 8.4 6,300
JAX LAC 2.4 Trevor Lawrence QB 18.6 5,400 17.3 7,000
JAX LAC 2.4 Christian Kirk WR 14.4 6,200 11.4 7,100
CAR NO 1.7 Baker Mayfield QB 14.4 5,200 13.5 6,600
CAR NO 1.7 D.J. Moore WR 13.1 5,600 10.4 6,400
NE BLT 1.6 Mac Jones QB 19.2 5,100 17.8 6,400
NE BLT 1.6 Jakobi Meyers WR 14.1 5,000 11.0 6,200
WAS PHI 1.3 Carson Wentz QB 17.4 6,300 16.2 7,500
WAS PHI 1.3 Terry McLaurin WR 12.4 6,400 9.8 6,900
SEA ATL 1.3 Geno Smith QB 18.7 5,000 17.5 6,300
SEA ATL 1.3 D.K. Metcalf WR 14.5 6,100 11.7 6,700
HST CHI 1.2 Davis Mills QB 16.7 5,000 15.5 6,400
HST CHI 1.2 Brandin Cooks WR 16.0 5,800 12.5 6,600
TB GB 1.2 Tom Brady QB 22.0 6,000 20.3 7,400
TB GB 1.2 Julio Jones WR 12.1 5,600 9.8 5,800
IND KC 0.7 Matt Ryan QB 17.9 5,200 16.5 6,700
IND KC 0.7 Michael Pittman Jr. WR 15.0 6,900 11.7 7,400

RUNNING BACK/DST

RB/DST players

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