Fantasy: Dynasty Duel – A.J. Green

Collaborative effort of Bryan Fontaine, Steve Wyremski and Nishant Shailendra.

In our newest feature article series, the PFF Fantasy staff takes opposing viewpoints on a player for dynasty league purposes.  After making our case, we conclude our thoughts so you can make the best-informed decision in your league.

Up first in our new feature is rookie wide receiver A.J. Green of the Cincinnati Bengals.

The case for A.J. Green – Bryan Fontaine

A.J. Green may be the most talented wide receiver to enter the league since Calvin Johnson in 2007 and should be the top overall selection in your PPR dynasty rookie draft.  Green, the top consensus wide receiver in the 2011 NFL Draft class from all the major scouting services, has all the attributes of a player that could transcend his position. These include separation, route running, hands, body control, high football IQ, sudden speed and quickness.  If you don’t come away impressed with Green after seeing his one-handed touchdown grab at Colorado and his catch while he gets sandwiched against Tennessee (1:16), I would be very surprised.

Talent, however, is only part of the equation when it comes to dynasty success. As my colleague Mr. Wyremski often states, opportunity matters, as well.  Green joins the Bengals and could find himself a top the depth chart if Terrell Owens (-5.4) is not retained and if Chad Ochocinco (-2.9) is traded or released.  The potential departure of both players would represent 250 targets and 1,736 snaps that need to be replaced from last year.    Green will line up as one of the starters on the outside with late-season surprise player Jerome Simpson on the other side and second-year player Jordan Shipley in the slot.  Tight End Jermaine Gresham will also be in the mix, but Green will never be worse than the second receiving option on the field and will warrant at least 10 targets each week in Jay Gruden’s version of the West Coast offense.

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the Bengals’ starting QB situation (Will Carson Palmer return or will rookie Andy Dalton start), Green has talent that rivals Calvin Johnson and Randy Moss (in his prime) and should be the top selection in your dynasty rookie draft.

The case against A.J. Green – Steve Wyremski

I will say this…I am in the minority in my position on A. J. Green. The majority is comparing Green to players like Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and other “elite” wide receivers coming out of college.  I just do not see it. I think he will be successful in the NFL, but not anywhere in the ballpark of “elite”. I get it. He has great body control, great jumping ability, and many scouts are gushing.  I am not sure that’s terribly warranted given his lack of straight-line speed and hand size, but I will steer clear of that for now.

Most concerning are two things:

1) His build and the lack of former/current NFL players with a similar build who were/are “elite”

2) His current situation with the Bengals

Build and Prior NFL History

Here is a look at all players drafted from 1999-2011 who are within 1 inch and 5 pounds of A. J. Green:

Note that the height and weight information above is from the official NFL Combine measurements, and the statistics and current/career ending weights are from NFL.com statistics, if earlier than 2008.

The above tells us:

• There are no receivers with a similar build who are considered “elite” in the NFL
• There are only five players with more than 1,000 yards of the above 33 players (total of six seasons)
• Both Braylon Edwards (3^rd overall pick) and David Terrell (8^th overall pick) were high draft picks with elite promise and similar builds; both have failed to live up to original expectations
• Braylon Edwards, Germane Crowell, Roy Williams, and Javon Walker are the most successful receivers with similar builds; they account for all six of the 1,000 yard seasons
• Few players put on significant weight in their career entering the NFL at a similar build

Why is the build a concern?  He has quick hands, but the NFL jam at the line of scrimmage will eat him up and prevent him from meeting the high expectations.  Some point to his game against Colorado in the 2010 season, but Ravens’ 2011 first rounder Jimmy Smith did not cover him.  Eighty percent of Green’s snaps that game came against Jalil Brown (4^th rounder) since he lined up on the left side of the field.  Smith only played on the right side.

When I bring up this build argument with beating the NFL bump and run, people often say that Green will gain 10 pounds and be fine.  What is interesting is that there are only four players who have done that and half of those guys had shortened careers due to injury.  Coincidence? Seems more like an issue of their lower body being able to handle the additional weight.

Current Situation

Yes, with it becoming more likely that Chad Ochocinco (-2.9) and Terrell Owens (-5.4) will leave in free agency, A. J. Green is the favorite to be the top Bengals’ WR in 2011. Does that really matter if your incoming quarterback is an unproven and arguably over-hyped second round rookie pick (Andy Dalton) with Carson Palmer leaving in free agency? Yes, Green will get targets, but there is a ton of risk with an unknown in the rookie quarterback being the starter from day one.  We are not talking about a prospect like Sam Bradford (+21.8) that is likely to come in, take the reins, and look like he has played the NFL game for a number of years in his first season. Very few second round quarterbacks do.  It may take time for Dalton to develop, if he does at all, which may lead to a shot at Green’s confidence and early production.

As I said earlier, I believe Green will be a successful NFL receiver like Walker or Edwards, just not a Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson.  Is it possible Green is a freak and is one of a kind, sure, but it is unlikely, given history.

Ruling – Nishant Shailendra

I have the very difficult job of trying to judge this dynasty duel.  I agree with Bryan in that I think Green is the consensus #1 in dynasty rookie drafts because I too think his college film shows a tremendously talented receiver whose skills could translate into an all-pro receiver at the NFL level.  However, Steve's concern regarding Green's height and weight combo in the NFL against tough, physical corners is a valid one.  Interestingly enough, both my colleagues view Green's situation with the Bengals differently.  Bryan believes Cincinnati will center its passing game around Green, while Steve believes that a rookie QB in a new system is going to make Green much less of a factor.

At the end of the day, I think Steve's argument regarding the success of NFL receivers coming into the league with Green’s body type is the trump card that wins him this dynasty duel.  I do not think it will take Green that long to make an impact in the league, but the crux of the issue is what type of impact we are talking about. History shows his road might be a bit tougher than imagined.