2026 NFL Draft: Biggest weakness for the top quarterback prospects

  • Fernando Mendoza, Indiana: If there is one weakness that appeared on film, it was his tendency to take sacks when better options were available. Mendoza took a sack on 24.4% of his pressured dropbacks in 2024 before improving to 18.6% in 2025. The earlier figure would be concerning for most quarterbacks entering the NFL, but the improvement is an encouraging sign for his transition to the next level.
  • Cole Payton, North Dakota State: Another one-year starter, Payton posted incredible advanced metrics in 2025, earning a 95.8 PFF overall grade and a 94.6 PFF passing grade while producing 0.544 expected points added per dropback. From an analytical perspective, his primary concern is an 18.9% pressure-to-sack rate.

Quarterback evaluation is rarely about identifying strengths — it’s about determining which weaknesses a prospect can overcome at the next level. Even the most highly regarded passers in the 2026 NFL Draft class enter the league with areas of their game that will require development.

Here’s the biggest statistical weakness for the top quarterbacks on PFF’s draft board. For more information on the 2026 draft class, visit PFF’s Big Board, quarterback draft guide profiles and Mock Draft Simulator.

Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

Weakness: Takes too many sacks

The clear favorite to be the first overall pick, Mendoza skyrocketed up draft boards in 2025 following his Heisman-winning season that culminated in an undefeated national championship run. He consistently dissected defenses, handled pressure well and delivered in the biggest moments of the season.

If there is one weakness that appeared on film, it was his tendency to take sacks when better options were available. Mendoza took a sack on 24.4% of his pressured dropbacks in 2024 before improving to 18.6% in 2025. The earlier figure would be concerning for most quarterbacks entering the NFL, but the improvement is an encouraging sign for his transition to the next level. He will still need to continue getting the ball out quickly and avoiding unnecessary losses, particularly if he lands with a Raiders team that still has several roster holes.

Click here for Fernando Mendoza's draft guide profile

Ty Simpson, Alabama

Weakness: Lack of experience

Simpson entered 2025 as a first-year starter after spending three seasons waiting behind other quarterbacks. He opened the year strong but struggled down the stretch against tougher SEC competition. A major factor was his play under pressure, where he posted a 47.6 PFF grade with a 31.6% success rate.

His lack of experience showed as opposing defenses presented more complex looks late in the season, often leaving him hesitant and holding onto the ball too long. Simpson possesses the arm talent and flashed high-end play during his lone year as a starter, but another season in college likely would have helped him further develop his confidence and command of defensive schemes.

Click here for Ty Simpson's draft guide profile

Cole Payton, North Dakota State

Weakness: Competition level and lack of experience

Another one-year starter, Payton posted incredible advanced metrics in 2025, earning a 95.8 PFF overall grade and a 94.6 PFF passing grade while producing 0.544 expected points added per dropback. From an analytical perspective, his primary concern is an 18.9% pressure-to-sack rate.

However, those numbers came against FCS competition at a program that consistently fields some of the best talent at that level. Payton also spent four seasons backing up Cam Miller, who was selected in the sixth round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Given Payton’s limited starting experience — and the fact that he was unable to win the job earlier against a quarterback unlikely to have a long NFL career — his professional outlook remains uncertain.

Click here for Cole Payton's draft guide profile

Cade Klubnik, Clemson

Weakness: No clear defining strength

Klubnik entered the 2025 season with potential first-round buzz after a strong 2024 campaign in which he showed promising play under pressure and outside the pocket. Outside of those areas, however, his performance metrics — including play from a clean pocket, early-down efficiency and throws beyond the sticks — graded closer to average.

In 2025, even those stable metrics regressed, and he failed to replicate his earlier success under pressure and outside the pocket. He finished in the 30th percentile from a clean pocket, the 37th percentile on early downs and the 38th percentile on throws at or beyond the sticks. Those results point to a quarterback who may struggle to consistently create easy throws at the next level without a clear defining trait to rely on.

Click here for Cade Klubnik's draft guide profile

Carson Beck, Miami (FL)

Weakness: Play under pressure

Beck transferred to Miami after five seasons at Georgia and nearly led the Hurricanes to a national championship. While he graded well overall during his time at Georgia, his struggles under pressure remained a recurring issue. In his first season as a starter, Beck handled pressure reasonably well, earning a 66.1 PFF grade in 2023. However, that performance collapsed in 2024, when his grade fell to 33.6.

With three years of starting experience and extensive exposure to a variety of defensive looks, improvement was expected. Instead, Beck again struggled under pressure, posting a 43.0 PFF grade with a 25.3% success rate. Combined with accuracy inconsistencies and limited athleticism, his inability to create positive plays when pressured in college raises concerns about how he will handle pressure at the NFL level.

Click here for Carson Beck's draft guide profile

Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Weakness: Athleticism

After seeing limited action from 2021 through 2023 behind Jayden Daniels, Nussmeier finally earned the starting job in his fourth season at LSU. He displayed strong pre-snap recognition and an ability to adjust protections and reads at the line of scrimmage. Nussmeier also avoided sacks effectively and performed well under pressure and in high-leverage situations.

However, production under pressure can be volatile, and his lack of athleticism remains a major concern. That limitation became more apparent as he struggled to consistently create from a clean pocket. His in-game athleticism rating was just 3.1 in 2024 and 2.6 in 2025 on a scale of 0 to 100. As the NFL continues to trend toward more mobile quarterbacks, Nussmeier will need to become an elite pocket operator to succeed at the next level.

Click here for Garrett Nussmeier's draft guide profile
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