• Bet the total over 37: PFF Greenline finds an edge of almost 3% on the over 37 at a -110 price, and PFF's play-by-play simulation has a mean expectation of 41.
• Trevor Lawrence under 0.5 interceptions: At a plus-price offering, PFF’s player prop tool finds an edge of 6.9% at the Barstool price of +116. PFF’s play-by-play simulation is more bullish on Lawrence’s chances, showing a near-60% chance that he doesn’t throw an interception on Thursday night.
• Travis Etienne under 16.5 yards longest rush: Despite an uptick in volume over the past three weeks, Etienne has seen a drastic reduction in his explosive runs. He hasn't recorded a rush of more than 16.5 yards since Week 9 and has very much been held in check, with this Jaguars offense working through Trevor Lawrence’s arm.
Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME LINES
This spread continues to bounce between threes as we head toward kickoff — both teams have spent time as 1.5-point favorites this week — but the market now seems settled on the Jets in this matchup.
Outside of the quarterback position, the Jets' injury situation seems to have broken right, but they are still waiting on Quinnen Williams‘ availability as he battles a calf injury. They will also be lacking wide receiver depth, though Corey Davis is set to return after missing last week’s matchup with a concussion.
Jacksonville faces more key injury questions, as tackle Cam Robinson projects to be a big loss against a Jets pass-rush that ranks fourth in pass-rush grade as a unit. Should Williams be good to go, New York will have a distinct advantage in almost every facet of play.
PFF Greenline buys into this narrative, showing 1.9% value on the Jets to cover a -2, -110 spread.
PFF’s play-by-play simulation provides an opposite outlook, expecting the Jaguars to cover and win outright by a three-point margin.
Given that the two models are split — and that we are still awaiting crucial injury information — this looks like a spot to wait on, as confirmation of Williams' availability would swing this matchup heavily in the Jets' favor. If he cannot go, there’s a case to be made for the Jaguars, especially if comfortable waiting for an in-game spot to see how the Jaguars attack this New York Jets defense.
The total is the only game market that PFF's betting model and play-by-play simulation agree on. The weather is somewhat concerning, but this total dropping to 37 looks way too big a movement from both models.
PFF Greenline finds almost 3% value on going over that number at a -110 price, and the play-by-play simulation has a mean expectation of 41.
This is another bet that Quinnen Williams' availability could influence. His absence would boost the Jaguars' league-average rushing unit, and that looks like the most viable path for them to sustain offensive success against one of the best defenses in the NFL. If that happens early, we should easily see enough points to finish well over this total.
- Over 37 (-106)
- Playable up to 37.5 at -110
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PLAYER PROPS
Player props are one of the best approaches to betting on the NFL. If interested in macro trends from the past three seasons, check out my midseason prop article here.
One way to consistently find defined edges without blindly betting unders is by utilizing PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for the NFL Thursday night game.
Trevor Lawrence: Under 0.5 interceptions
Lawrence is the NFL's highest-graded quarterback since Week 9, and a big part of that improvement has come from him better protecting the ball.
Lawrence put up a 3.9% turnover-worthy play percentage through Week 8, but that has since dipped to 2.8%. He’s also been on the right side of interception variance, with five of his six turnover-worthy plays during that stretch not resulting in an interception.
At a plus-price offering, PFF’s player prop tool finds a 6.9% value at the Barstool price of +116. PFF’s play-by-play simulation is more bullish on Lawrence’s chances, showing a near-60% chance that he doesn’t throw an interception on Thursday night.
If the weather impacts the volume of pass attempts for the Jacksonville Jaguars, then this looks like one of the best player props to bet.
Travis Etienne: Under 16.5 yards longest rush
Despite an uptick in volume over the past three weeks, Etienne has seen a drastic reduction in his explosive runs. He hasn't recorded a rush of more than 16.5 yards since Week 9 and has very much been held in check, with this Jaguars offense working through Trevor Lawrence’s arm.
This prop is pending Quinnen Williams' injury status, but if he is in the fold, this should be an easy spot to go under once again.
PFF’s play-by-play simulation sees this as an easy victory, with Etienne finishing under in 54% of simulations.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL Anytime TD Scorer (Pricing via BetMGM compared to PFF simulations)
|Player||BetMGM Price||Implied Probability||Simulation Probability||Value Difference|
|Marvin Jones Jr.||310||24.4%||23.0%||-1.4%|
Anytime TD pick: Zay Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars (+240)