- Quentin Johnston draws a favorable coverage matchup: Houston has allowed the NFL's third-highest explosive-play rate, creating an opportunity for Johnston's receiving-yardage prop alongside Justin Herbert‘s passing total in a 15-to-1 same-game parlay.
- Kyle Pitts could exploit Cincinnati‘s linebackers: The Bengals rank last in yards per route run allowed to tight ends, supporting a 25-to-1 parlay featuring Pitts' receiving yards and touchdown production alongside Michael Penix Jr.‘s passing yards.
- Stefon Diggs offers a path to Washington's passing upside: Diggs has earned a team-high 32% target rate against man coverage, making him a central piece of a 35-to-1 parlay with Jayden Daniels‘ passing yards and a Commanders victory.
Quentin Johnston‘s deep-ball upside against Houston's single-high coverage
We spoke in Stats & Angles this week about a Texans defense that has struggled against the pass, particularly the deep ball, where Houston has allowed the third-highest explosive-play rate in the NFL.
And this is, in a sense, a product of a defense that invites opponents to attack downfield with its single-high coverage looks. For years, that has been a staple of DeMeco Ryans' defenses, but this season, the results haven't been great for Houston.
The Texans have played single-high coverage on 59% of their snaps this season, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL, and have increased that to 65% over the past month, ranking third.
The Chargers‘ receivers have been sneaky good against single-high coverage, with Ladd McConkey near the top of the league in yards per route run (YPRR) and Quentin Johnston ranking in the 80th percentile in both separation and YPRR.
I think both players are set up for a favorable matchup, but accounting for pricing, Johnston is the more appealing option on alternate receiving-yardage lines, particularly when paired with Justin Herbert‘s passing yards. For Herbert to clear his higher passing-yardage props, I think it will come down to connecting on a few deep balls that haven't quite hit yet but could unlock another level of production for this passing offense.
With an explosive Texans offense on the other side capable of putting up points, and a Houston defense that is far better against the run than the pass, this looks like a good spot for passing volume to pile up for the Chargers regardless of game script.
SGP Build: 15-to-1
- QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 250+ passing yards
- WR Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers: 80+ receiving yards
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Kyle Pitts Could Feast Against Cincinnati's Struggling Linebackers
Death, taxes and betting on tight ends against the Bengals.
Cincinnati's linebackers have struggled in coverage, with each grading below average in separation prevented and allowing significant yardage through the air. That has once again contributed to a Bengals defense that ranks 32nd in yards per route run (YPRR) allowed to tight ends, surrendering 2.13 YPRR to the position.
That alone makes Kyle Pitts worth considering on alternate receiving-yardage lines in this matchup, especially given that he is Michael Penix Jr.‘s second-favorite target behind Drake London, earning a target on 23% of his routes over the past month.
And against man coverage, which the Bengals have played at the third-highest rate in the NFL, Pitts' target rate climbs to 25%, with a robust 2.1 YPRR that ranks near the top of the league among tight ends. This is a perfect spot for Pitts to deliver a ceiling performance, with Penix able to get the ball out quickly to his tight end and give him room to run against a Bengals defense that has struggled to cover tight ends and make tackles.
And much like Johnston alongside McConkey, with London always a strong candidate to produce, a big passing day from Penix will likely require one of his secondary targets to step up. Pitts is a terrific candidate to do just that in this matchup.
SGP Build: 25-to-1
- QB Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons: 275+ passing yards
- TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons: 70+ receiving yards
- TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons: Anytime touchdown
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Stefon Diggs could be the key to Washington's passing-game upside
Building off our matchup analysis, we can look at who might benefit most from an explosive Commanders offense going up against a banged-up Rams defense that will be without Watson and potentially McDuffie, too.
And while all of the Commanders‘ pass-catchers have separated exceptionally well (see our matchup analysis of Washington's passing attack), it's Diggs who has been the most productive, turning those opportunities into targets and yards. Diggs is earning a team-high 32% target rate against man coverage and ranks in the 80th percentile league-wide in production.
Add in his key role on third downs (31% target rate) and the fact that his usage extends beyond the deep shots that define Burks' role, and Diggs is the player I want to back when building a bet around the Commanders beating the Rams through the air.
SGP Build: 35-to-1
- QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 275+ passing yards
- WR Stefon Diggs, Washington Commanders: 80+ receiving yards
- Washington Commanders: Moneyline
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