• Bet Stefon Diggs o6.5 receptions: New England is No. 1 in EPA/pass allowed yet struggles against elite pass catchers, most recently Justin Jefferson on Thanksgiving.
• New England plays the NFL's highest rate of single high, a coverage Josh Allen fares well against (top 10 in EPA) and Diggs should exploit vs a CB corps lacking a true No. 1.
• Bet Josh Allen o15.5 longest rush: He's over this number in 8/11 this season and five consecutive against Pats dating back to start of 2020 season.
Last updated: Dec. 1, 2:15 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
Ben Brown: Patriots TE Jonnu Smith — Under 1.5 receptions (+105 BetMGM)
• PFF Player Props tool's top TNF value, Smith going under his reception prop looks like the best bet to make Thursday night. After running nine total routes on Thanksgiving — his fewest since Week 7 — Smith has a 32.8% route percentage share this season.
• Hunter Henry is clearly the 1A tight end in Patriots offense, with Smith becoming more and more of an afterthought each week. If New England jumps out to an early lead, expect a heavy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson, with the secondary receiving options seeing little-to-no volume in the second half.
Without a manufactured target on the scripted play set, it looks highly unlikely that Smith will go over this number.
Tej Seth: Bills WR Stefon Diggs — Over 6.5 receptions (+100)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -110
PFF staff best bets are 94-94-2 entering Week 13.