• Bet Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke u0.5 passing TDs at Eagles: Quickly becoming our favorite sweat in ugly-ish matchups, passing TD unders have been the most profitable category to bet in this scoring-reduced 2022 season.
• PFF Greenline finds a game-high 20.1% Greenline edge on Heinicke failing to throw a touchdown Monday night.
• Bet Eagles -6.5 1H: In a primetime showcase spot, expect Philadelphia to jump out to an early lead, with Heinicke scrambling potentially to the backdoor at the end.
Last updated: Nov. 14, 1:10 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
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• The Eagles look like the best team in the NFL at handling inferior opponents: It starts up front with the top offensive line unit every single week in Sam Monson’s rankings. Most assumed Washington would see a slight uptick for this matchup in the trenches, but with Chase Young’s continued unavailability, it’s left to Montez Sweat and Jonathan Allen to force enough pressure on early downs to hopefully win some key third-and-long situations and get off the field.
• Can Washington stop Philly rush attack ranked 3rd in EPA/rush and No. 1 in success rate?: Otherwise it'll be up to Commnanders' pass rush to create negative plays, or they may be relying solely on penalties to get off the field.
• Commanders' outlook on offense isn't any more appealing from a betting perspective: With Taylor Heinicke the lowest-graded starting quarterback in both offensive grade and passing grade. Their often cited rush attack ranks 26th in EPA per rush and 27th in success rate.
• Philadelphia’s lone weak spot?: Potentially this run defense matchup, which means the only real betting angle for siding with Washington is if you believe it can successfully establish the run early.
• PFF’s Greenline model doesn’t find any value on the six-pack bets: But if forced, it leans slightly toward Washington. Philadelphia is very much the real deal but has been on a little bit of a downturn covering the first-half spread. In a primetime showcase spot, expect the Eagles to jump out to an early lead, with Heinicke scrambling potentially to the backdoor at the end.
Bet: Eagles -6.5 1H (-120)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -130
Bet: Taylor Heinicke Under 0.5 Passing TD’s +220 DraftKings
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +190
Quickly becoming my favorite sweat in somewhat ugly matchups, passing touchdown unders have been the most profitable category to bet in this scoring reduced 2022 season.
• This is also PFF’s prop tool highest-graded bet Monday: Heinicke being PFF’s lowest graded quarterback very much plays into this handicap, as the “quarterback winz” are masking what has been really poor play since taking over as the starter. With Carson Wentz set to return from IR next week, many are pointing toward this being Heinicke’s last hurrah and opportunity to win the starting job officially for the rest of the season.
• If things unravel quickly, this could maybe be a spot to give Sam Howell some looks: Especially if Heinicke continues having a turnover-worthy play on 8.2% of his dropbacks. Falling behind early will be catastrophic to the Commanders' upset chances, and if it happens because of a Heinicke miscue, it's possible we see a short leash on Monday night.
Even if Heinicke plays the whole game, at a 31.3% breakeven percentage, this only needs to happen a third of the time to be a profitable bet.