• WR Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders: Of the 81 wide receivers who have run at least 100 routes this season, only Tee Higgins has a higher red-zone target share than Davante Adams.
• RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints: Teams are running against the Texans 11% more than expected in the red zone, likely due to the team's inability to stop the run. Through five weeks, Houston has allowed a 70% success rate to opposing backs in the red zone, the worst rate in the league.
• Get $200 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $200 in bonus bets. Join FanDuel today!
Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
WR Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
• Of the 81 wide receivers who have run at least 100 routes this season, only Tee Higgins has a higher red-zone target share than Davante Adams. And because of the Patriots' predilection for man coverage, they might struggle to cover him this Sunday, making him a threat to score from anywhere on the field.
• Despite their shortcomings as a whole, the Patriots have produced a top-five success rate defending the run, which has tilted teams toward the pass.
• The Raiders' struggles on the ground have been well-documented this season, so they need no excuse to pass the ball. They get one here, though, and should rely on the aerial attack in the red zone, leaving plenty of targets and opportunities for Adams to score.
RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
• Kamara jumped out of suspension and into the role as the Saints' featured back, commanding 70% of his team's snaps over the last two weeks.
• Teams are running against the Texans 11% more than expected in the red zone, likely due to the team's inability to stop the run. Through five weeks, Houston has allowed a 70% success rate to opposing backs in the red zone, the worst rate in the league.
• The Saints also use Kamara as a pass-catcher in the red zone, leaving him multiple avenues to score against a bad defense.
Longshot: RB Chris Brooks, Miami Dolphins
• No team has a higher total than the Dolphins, who are expected to score 31 points on the struggling Carolina Panthers.
• And while Brooks has struggled to produce rushing yards over expected, he plays in an extraordinarily favorable offense. Every Dolphins running back has averaged well north of 5.0 yards per carry, with extremely high expected yard totals.
• Meanwhile, the Panthers defense has been absolutely dreadful at stopping the run, ranking last in rushing success rate allowed.
• With De'Von Achane out with an injury, there should be plenty of carries to go around in Miami. And it was Brooks, not Salvon Ahmed, who served as the third-stringer last week. Brooks figures to get plenty of work behind Raheem Mostert in Week 6.
• Miami should be playing from ahead in this one, so look for Mike McDaniel's squad to score often and for Brooks to get some shots from in close against this putrid Panthers run defense.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.