Betting News & Analysis

Sunday Night Football Staff Picks: Player props, spread bets and more

Denver, Colorado, USA; Los Angeles Chargers safety Derwin James Jr. (33) celebrates after an interception in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Bet Travis Kelce u77.5 receiving yards: Against a healthy Chargers S Derwin James, Kelce has gone under 77.5 yards in 4/5 games dating back to James' rookie year.

• James' Chargers are tough on opposing tight ends, most recently limiting San Francisco's George Kittle to 1-21 receiving.

Bet Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney anytime TD: Kansas City's WR injuries mean it's time to showcase their newest offensive weapon in primetime.

Last updated: Nov. 20, 5:00 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 3 mins

Here are PFF staff best bets in Kansas City Chiefs-Los Angeles Chargers on “Sunday Night Football” in Week 11:

Ben Brown: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes o2.5 pass TDs (+126)

Bet Gameplan: Playable to +110

A banged-up WR unit means another plus-price Patrick Mahomes pass-TD prop: He’s gotten us to the cashier’s window in five games this season, despite falling to cash in the primetime matchup against the Titans two weeks ago.

Los Angeles (23rd in PFF defensive ranking) hasn't lived up to lofty preseason expectations defensively: Their secondary is in borderline shambles, and even against second and tertiary Chiefs pass-catching options, the Chargers should have their hands full. Los Angeles and Tennessee are vastly different teams both offensively and defensively, and the Chiefs should either win this game handily, or turn it into a back-and-forth shootout.

Arjun Menon: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce — Under 77.5 receiving yards (-110)

Bet Gameplan: Playable to 75.5

• Kelce will be the focal point of the Chiefs offense with Juju and Hardman out, and the Chargers D will be keyed  in on stopping him. Especially when Derwin James is healthy, Kelce has gone under 77.5 yards in 4/5 games dating back to Derwin's rookie year. Few TEs have done well vs the Chargers and last week George Kittle only had 1 catch for 22 yards.

Judah Fortgang: Live-bet Gameplan — Start with Chargers moneyline +200 pregame, before betting Chiefs at plus money to guarantee profit. Continue buying each side as the leads swing back and forth.

• With their top receivers and Justin Herbert back and healthy, I’d expect the Chargers' offense to look more like the unit that had the second-highest drive quality last season.

• And In a game with one great offense and one with an opportunity to again unlock its great potential, volatility can create serious live betting value. When there is high volatility, there are big price swings, and one can oftentimes — especially when planning in advance — book a middle (both sides of a bet cashing), or at the very least get both sides of a bet at +money for a guaranteed profit.

Richard Janvrin: Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney anytime TD (+180)

Bet Gameplan: Playable to -120

Mecole Hardman was sent to injured reserve, and JuJu Smith-Schuster is also out in this game. The Chiefs are 5.5-point road favorites, and Toney is gearing up as a top target for Patrick Mahomes. Toney caught four of five targets for 57 yards and scored while showing off his athleticism last week in his second game with his new team. The Chiefs will look to run the ball Sunday night, but look for Toney to be one of the beneficiaries of Mahomes’ passing touchdowns — our prop betting tool gives the over 2.5 touchdowns for Mahomes a 19.9% edge — our fourth-biggest edge in Week 11.

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