• Bet Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes o2.5 pass TDs: Although he missed this mark in primetime against Titans, Mahomes has cashed this bet five times already this season.
• Chargers are 29th in PFF defensive rank and borderline in shambles in their secondary; Chiefs maintain their explosive passing potential without JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman.
• Bet Chiefs WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling o45.5 receiving yards: MVS has played at least 75% of the snaps and run a route on 75% of dropbacks in consecutive weeks.
Last updated: Nov. 20, 3:15 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
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• After spread movement between -7 and -4.5 throughout the week: We’ve arrived back to where we started on the lookahead line at -5.5. The Chargers finally produced a positive end-of-week injury report, with both Mike Wililams and Keenan Allen back in the fold.
• Williams and Allen have been together on the field for only 27 pass dropbacks this season: So, although the offense should be improved, it’s hard to get an accurate read on just how big of a difference the impact both will have on this matchup. The expectation is they quickly return close to their 2021 form, which could allow the Chargers to build an early lead.
• PFF Greenline leans the other direction, finding value on the Chiefs: Covering the spread and winning outright in more than 70% of simulations. Given the heavy juice associated with the pregame moneyline, and the fact it does offer the most value, this looks like a much better spot to play in-game.
• PFF’s Judah Fortgang outlines a quality approach to attacking this matchup live: And if patient, we should be able to find a plus-money Chiefs offering below the key number three on the spread. Being patient with a setup can sometimes cause us to miss out on a bet, but on far more occasions it gives us a better number, especially in a hotly-contested matchup that could come down to the final possession.
Live-bet gameplan: Bet the Chiefs when they're trailing at plus money.
Bet: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes — Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+126)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +110
• A banged-up WR unit means another plus-price Patrick Mahomes pass-TD prop: He’s gotten us to the cashier’s window in five games this season, despite falling to cash in the primetime matchup against the Titans two weeks ago.
• Los Angeles (23rd in PFF defensive ranking) hasn't lived up to lofty preseason expectations defensively: Their secondary is in borderline shambles, and even against second and tertiary Chiefs pass-catching options, the Chargers should have their hands full. Los Angeles and Tennessee are vastly different teams both offensively and defensively, and the Chiefs should either win this game handily, or turn it into a back-and-forth shootout.
• Explosive Chiefs on SNF: Kansas City is not rushing the football effectively, but with Andy Reid calling plays, the offense still should be efficient. The Chiefs still have big-play threats in the passing game, with the expectation that Kadarius Toney quickly turns into a focal point. This points toward a more explosive-play-dependent offense, one that could see the Chiefs put up multiple quick scores. If that happens early, Mahomes will easily toss 3+ touchdowns in a showcase game on Sunday night.
Bet: Chiefs WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling — Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to 47.5
• MVS: As most prop bettors try to predict the volume breakdown among Chiefs depleted pass-catching options, the one constant in the WR corps is Valdes-Scantling-Scantling, who has two straight games with at least 75% of offensive snaps and a route run on 75% of dropbacks. He is also the air-yards king of this offense, needing only one catch to go over this prop number.
• With Derwin James locked onto Travis Kelce: The expectation is the Chiefs' WR unit must win its matchups for the offense to be successful. Both Valdes-Scantling and Toney should see more than enough volume to clear their prop numbers, but MVS is the more enticing option, given his aDot and assurance that he will be in on almost every dropback.
DERIVATIVE BETS & SAME-GAME PARLAY
• The Chiefs may have to operate with Travis Kelce as a decoy in this matchup: As Judah pointed out in his same-game parlay article. This doesn’t mean we should see a drop-off from Mahomes, as the Chiefs have enough at wide receiver to be successful against a disastrous Chargers secondary.
• Toney might be the focal point, but MVS offers some assurances given his voluminous role: Both getting into the endzone offers some negative correlation, but it might be required if Mahomes goes over 2.5 passing touchdowns. Combining the three legs on Caesars at +800 offers more than enough of a payout to make it a decent betting angle on Sunday night.
SGP (+800 Caesars)
• Patrick Mahomes 3+ Passing TD’s
• Marques Valdes-Scantling anytime TD
• Kadarius Toney anytime TD