Simulating the 2020 NFL season

We got another NFL event last week with the reveal of the 2020 NFL schedule. While we’ve known about each team's opponents for some time, we now know the order. With the help of our PFF Elo rating system, our grades and some market data, we’ve simulated the 2020 season 10,000 times and have distributions for win totals, divisional title odds, etc.

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Below are projected win totals for each NFL team, along with their current market odds (via BetOnline):

AFC West

Feb 2, 2020; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) celebrates after defeating the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium. Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City Chiefs: 11.2 (11.5, -125 to the over/-105 to the under)

Las Vegas Raiders: 7.5 (7.5, -105/-125)

Denver Broncos: 7.4 (7.5, -130/+110)

Los Angeles Chargers: 6.4 (7.5, -130/+100)

AFC North

Dec 8, 2019; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) runs with the ball against the Buffalo Bills during the first quarter at New Era Field. Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Baltimore Ravens: 10.5 (11.5, -115/-115)

Cleveland Browns: 8.0 (8.5, -110/-120)

Pittsburgh Steelers: 7.7 (9.5, +110/-140)

Cincinnati Bengals: 6.7 (5.5, -120/-110)

AFC South

Jan 4, 2020; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) hands the ball off to running back Derrick Henry (22) during the second half of a game New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Tennessee Titans: 9.2 (8.5, -125/-105)

Indianapolis Colts: 8.2 (9, -125/-105)

Houston Texans: 7.9 (7.5, -110/-120)

Jacksonville Jaguars: 6.2 (4.5, -120/-110)

AFC East

Jan 4, 2020; Houston, Texas, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) scores a touchdown against Houston Texans strong safety Jahleel Addae (37) during the first quarter in the AFC Wild Card NFL Playoff game at NRG Stadium. Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Buffalo Bills: 7.9 (9, -115/-115)

New England Patriots: 7.7 (9, -110/-120)

Miami Dolphins: 7.4 (6.5, -110/-120)

New York Jets: 7.0 (7, +100/-130)

NFC West

Jan 19, 2020; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) reacts before the NFC Championship Game against the Green Bay Packers at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

San Francisco 49ers: 9.8 (10.5, -125/-105)

Seattle Seahawks: 8.8 (9, -140/+110)

Los Angeles Rams: 8.2 (8.5, -115/-115)

Arizona Cardinals: 7.3 (7.5, -120/-110)

NFC North

Dec 29, 2019; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams (17) completes a touchdown pass during the third quarter against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Green Bay Packers: 8.7 (9, -125/-105)

Minnesota Vikings: 8.4 (9, -110/-120)

Chicago Bears: 7.4 (8.5, +120/-150)

Detroit Lions: 7.4 (6.5, -120/-110)

NFC South

Sep 9, 2019; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs after a catch against the Houston Texans during the first quarter at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

New Orleans Saints: 9.7 (10.5, -115/-115)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8.7 (9.5, -140/+110)

Atlanta Falcons: 7.6 (7.5, -120/-110)

Carolina Panthers: 7.0 (5.5, -110/-120)

NFC East

Dec 15, 2019; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) throws in the pocket against the Los Angeles Rams at AT&T Stadium. Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Dallas Cowboys: 8.7 (9.5, -135/+105)

Philadelphia Eagles: 7.7 (9.5, -125/-105)

Washington Redskins: 7.2 (5.5, +100/-130)

New York Giants: 6.6 (6.5, -110/-120)

Futures We Like

Feb 2, 2020; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy after defeating the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium. Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City Chiefs +750 to win the Super Bowl

Tennessee Titans +6000 to win the Super Bowl

New Orleans Saints +110 to win the NFC South

Tennessee Titans +175 to win the AFC South

Detroit Lions +700 to win the NFC North

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