- Starts of the Week, not sit-your-studs: This is a list of players poised to beat expectations, accompanied by my confidence rating at the end of each outlook. Use them to win close decisions, not to bench superstars.
- Justin Jefferson bounce-back alert: Jefferson has been just the WR30 since Week 8, held back mostly by the quarterback play. However, Week 14 sets up perfectly for a rebound, as he gets a matchup against a Commanders secondary that has been torched all season.
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Quarterback
Tyrod Taylor, New York Jets
Taylor finished last week as a QB1, posting a QB7 finish.
He gets an easier matchup this week against a Miami defense that profiles as the fourth-easiest matchup for quarterbacks. The Dolphins are allowing a passer rating above 107.0 this season and have surrendered the fifth-longest time to throw.
Tyrod should have plenty of time to make plays both within and outside the pocket this week.
Confidence Level: Mid-tier QB1
Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals
Brissett has been as steady as they come in fantasy since taking over as the Cardinals’ QB1.
This week, Arizona enters as an 8.5-point underdog, which should create plenty of passing volume for Brissett. The Cardinals also draw a top-12 easiest matchup for wide receivers against the Rams, giving Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. opportunities to find open windows.
The game script is the biggest indicator here, as the Rams should build a comfortable lead at some point in the first half, forcing Arizona — and Brissett — to lean heavily on the passing game in the second half.
Confidence Level: Mid-tier QB1
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Lawrence has the fifth-easiest matchup for quarterbacks this week, facing a Colts defense that will likely be without Sauce Gardner. The Colts have allowed the sixth-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season and have given up nearly a 3.0-second average time to throw.
With Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange healthy and Jakobi Meyers ascending within the offense, Lawrence should have options all over the field in Week 14.
Confidence Level: Low-end QB1
Wide receiver
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
Flowers delivered one of the biggest duds of Week 13, but he was only a couple of plays away from a respectable fantasy outing.
The Ravens now enter a must-win game against a Steelers defense allowing nearly 30 PPR points per game to opposing wide receivers. The advanced metrics remain strong for Flowers — he’s top-10 in target rate — but he hasn’t quite synced back up with quarterback Lamar Jackson since Jackson’s return.
We could see those two get back on track in a big way in Week 14.
Confidence Level: Mid-tier WR2
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Since Week 8, Justin Jefferson has been the WR30 in PPR, averaging just 10.2 points per game, largely because of the quarterback play. However, the PFF Strength of Schedule Tool gives Jefferson the easiest wide receiver matchup of the week against a Commanders secondary that has been torched all season.
Washington has allowed the second-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers this season (3,229), the fourth-most receiving touchdowns (25) and more than 1,700 yards after the catch. Even with the shaky quarterback situation, Jefferson should be positioned for a big day in Week 14.
Confidence Level: Low-end WR1
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Sutton has fallen below 11 PPR points in four of his last five games, but he posted 17.2 points last week and now draws another favorable matchup against a Raiders secondary that plays directly into his skill set.
Broncos wide receivers have the second-easiest matchup in Week 14 against a Raiders defense allowing more than 10 yards per reception and a 103.3 passer rating this season.
Courtland and Bo Nix reconnected last week, and that momentum should carry into Week 14.
Confidence Level: High-end WR2
Running back
RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos
Harvey has hit a tough stretch, averaging just over 10 PPR points per game across the last four weeks.
However, this is the ideal get-right spot. Harvey has the second-easiest matchup for running backs this week, and with the Broncos entering as 7.5-point favorites, they should build an early lead that allows the run game — and RJ Harvey — plenty of volume in the second half.
Confidence Level: Mid-tier RB2
D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
Monangai has been banged up this week, which should leave the bulk of the work to D’Andre Swift even if Monangai ends up playing on Sunday.
With that workload, Swift should be a confident fantasy start this week, even against a stout Packers defense. The Bears and Caleb Williams will need to get him involved early and often to keep Green Bay guessing if they want a chance to come out on top in this divisional matchup.
Confidence Level: Mid-tier RB2
Jordan Mason, Minnesota Vikings
Jones appeared on the injury report with a shoulder issue this week, and even if he plays, his limited practice participation should allow Mason to retake the RB1 role for the week.
He draws a Commanders defense that has allowed top-10 marks in yards before contact, yards after contact, total rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and missed tackles forced on runs.
The workload and the matchup make Mason a difficult player to bench in a week that is must-win for many fantasy managers.
Confidence Level: Borderline RB1 / high-end RB2
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